(09-11-2020 05:17 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: Will never happen. But I'll play.
If it came down to a split over corona, Purdue would join OSU/Wisconsin/Penn State. They're not stupid. And they weren't strongly against playing in the first place (unlike Illinois & Minnesota).
If Purdue comes, so does Indiana. The offshoots take them both because it's essential to Iowa & Wisconsin that their conference dominates the Chicago market (OSU & Nebraska want this too). Chicago (like New York) can not be dominated with just one school. Chicago is the #1 market for grads from Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana.
So you have 7 schools (West-to-East Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State). Its fanbases all overlap without gaps. It retains 4 of the 5 biggest B10 football fanbases and 4 of the 5 largest basketball fanbases (by attendance). They drop 4 of the 5 smallest B10 fanbases in each sport. So they're probably worth 75% of the Big Ten's TV value, putting their TV rights at an astonishing $81 million per school.
At that valuation, the only schools that would increase average payout are Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, USC, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. A few others would break even, like LSU, FSU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, or maybe UNC. But there's no reason to add most of those schools.
They probably add Michigan as # 8 as soon as corona is over, pushing their average payout over $85 million. Play a 7-game round robin in football and have 5 out of conference games.
(As much as I want to say "they'd add Cincinnati," the only reason they'd add UC is if they need an 8th member for football during corona.)
It can happen and more easily than you might think. But it won't happen the way you think.
By 2024 the SEC payouts per team will be 68 - 72 million depending upon the final disposition of the new contract. It could start 2 years earlier if ABC was successful in buying out CBS's remaining contract after this year.
Here are the preconditions:
Nebraska does leave (which breaks the GOR which more importantly was likely broken by the non play order).
The courts rule that pay for play is in order.
That leaves Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin as the major earners who are dependent upon sizeable football crowds and which drive the revenue.
With the GOR open, Nebraska leaving, and the current Big 10 contract diminished the other 6 schools have some serious considerations to make.
Why?
If they are going to continue playing football at the upper echelon they will need to stay competitive in revenue. With Nebraska going back to the Big 12 it isn't likely they are adding Texas or Oklahoma. The SEC schools are at the top of the food chain and aren't moving and the only likely defection from the SEC due to pay for play would be Vanderbilt and that's not even certain. At the departure of Nebraska you better believe Penn State would be checking out their options.
They all need solid recruiting grounds and Ohio State already recruits nationally, but they could benefit immensely by playing more games in the Southeast. They also benefit from playing home and home's in large venues (Texas A&M, Alabama, Tennessee, & L.S.U. are all over 100,000 and Georgia is at 92,000 and Auburn at 87,000).
Contiguity is in effect. If the Big 10 under these circumstances found the possible dissolution of their conference I would think it prudent to preserve and expand the academic consortia. Pay for play essentially divorces athletics from academics. They night as well take advantage of that instead of turning it into a loss of academic alliances. Besides they can Texas, Texas A&M, Florida, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Duke, or Virginia as academic members without affecting athletic allegiances. This does more good for the Big 10 than hanging onto a century old model that has been outdated for most of its life.
So the sports teams would head elsewhere. Iowa with Nebraska to the Big 12 makes sense as Iowa wouldn't be as attractive to the SEC and too remote for the ACC and PAC. Ohio State as an anchor for a North Division in the SEC makes money for both and a great deal of sense while giving the Buckeyes immense exposure in the Southeast. If Michigan wants to come with them fine. If Vanderbilt does drop down then Wisconsin has a spot as well.
If B.C. and Wake opt out of the ACC then Michigan State, Purdue, and Penn State make sense along with Notre Dame.
The ACC looks like this:
Michigan State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Louisville, Notre Dame, Purdue, Virginia Tech
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
The SEC like this:
Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana State, Texas A&M
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
The Big 12 is now at 12. The PAC has no means of catching up and the two state schools of California will have political entanglements. So the two privates make moves to secure their futures as Stanford and Southern Cal join the Big 12 with Oregon and Washington.
The two Arizona schools are running high subsidies for the P5 and Utah is in significant red ink. Oregon State and Washington State drag up the rear of the P5 in many statistical categories. Colorado is a big question but West Virginia is the better value. Should Baylor or T.C.U. drop out with pay for play (which I doubt) it would leave an opening for the Buffs. Barring that the Big 12 is now:
Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, West Virginia
Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Baylor, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Now as to your assumptions you should go to the Gross Total Revenue figures to find who would add and who would not add to the Big 10. I don't think UNC doesn't it for them. But neither do a couple of others you mentioned. But the deal here is that with 6 money schools left it is easier for all of them to join more profitably elsewhere than to try to attract schools which would add to their value and recruiting ground access is both very important to them and deal breaker for those they might reach out to.
Eventually the recruiting alone is going to be quite the problem for the Big 10 power football schools whether we have pay for play or not. It will never be a problem for the SEC or ACC or SWC. That's why the latter 3 will survive.