(08-25-2020 12:32 PM)bullet Wrote: (08-25-2020 05:17 AM)solohawks Wrote: (08-25-2020 04:32 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote: (08-24-2020 03:28 PM)solohawks Wrote: (08-24-2020 03:22 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: Illinois is much more likely to vote Trump than CA or NY.
In 2016, Trump lost IL by 17 points, NY by 22%, and CA by 27%. Also 4% of Illinois voters voted Libertarian or McMillan in 2016, (compared to 2.42% in NY and 3.6% in CA). That was in a year when Illinois voters were ticked off at their Republican governor for going 2 years without a budget.
Since then, CA and NY have shut into a bubble and gotten more extreme. Illinoisans have watched while all the neighboring states with Republican governors have handled coronavirus better with lower restrictions.
Current polls say Biden has a 30 point lead in CA and a 24% lead in NY. There has not been a single poll yet in Illinois. But come November, if we're discussing Trump maybe winning Illinois then the election is already decided.
Yeah Trump's not going to win these 2 states. Getting it under 15% would be an accomplishment in itself
Yeah I think bearcat is more onto the reality of this. (I still hate Nick Van Excel for beating Penny's tigers 4 times in one year, God forgive me lol)
He may not pull out Cali and NY, but he will likely flip other blue states like in 2016 and have a much larger electorial win if these rumblings and trends are true.
A 350-400 EC tally may wake up the few reasonable dems out there about how insane their party has become. The hardliners will go even harder left and Marxist though.
It would be best for America if Trump could permanently damage the dem party by dividing the Marxists socialists from few remaining sensible democrats. A 3 party divide may me much better for us to slow the eventual implosion and fall of the nation to the demonic Godless left.
The 3 party idea is kinda a Lucy and the football thing that never seems to come to fruition though.
Our first past the post system makes two parties inevitable.
Canada has 3 with 4 in Quebec. Mexico has 3. UK has 4 in Scotland and Wales and 2.5 in England.
Regional parties in Canada in the UK are interesting. Ironically there has never been that hard of a division in the U.S. to justify a completely long term separate party based upon a particular state/region that the 2 national parties could not meet. The only issue of succession we had was the Civil War and we solved that outside of the legislative process. Also may have to do with our Federalist founding where individual states appointed Senators to the federal government. No need to create a party when you can litterally send who you want with no questions.
In UK the Liberal Democrat party is a newer phenomenon that is arguably dying out.
In Canada it just goes to show you how liberal they are that they can justify 2 liberal parties that dont cannibalize the vote and give the Conservatives the win. There used to be multiple Conservative parties as well but they got tired of getting beat and realized a unity party was the only realistic way forward. If the Conservatives in Canada ever get any momentum I would suspect you would see something similar between the Liberals and New Democrats.
Im not familiar with Mexico and their election system, but a google search w/ low research time indicates they have what is called "parallel voting" and replaced the first past the post system in 1977.
Also in the U.S. with so many different states, different laws, particularly with ballot access, and a system of federalism, it seems the path of least resistance was taken and the two parties encompass a wider variety of the population than parties of the countries we are comparing. The Electoral College and its winner take all nature solidifies the need for a 1:1 contest. As a result, instead of creating a new party to make that difference ironclad, both parties have learned to live with a much bigger tent. California and West Virginia may both have "Democrats" but there beliefs and policies vary greatly.
Trump's takeover of the Republican Party is in someways the creation of a new party as the 2012 GOP party is nowhere near the same as the 2020 GOP party. However, due to how our election laws are, particularly with the electoral college, creating a new party from scratch to take on the opposition party and the legacy party was a non starter and Trump wisely picked 1 of the big 2 parties to get the ballot access he needed.
