JRsec
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RE: Kevin Warren deserves a mutiny, B1G likened to the WCHA, and other rants
(08-20-2020 08:54 PM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote: https://m.facebook.com/permalink.php?sto...1498798014
I can't express the level of disappointment I felt when the B1G cancelled the season. I recently saw Kevin Warren on the BTN talking about his propensity to "over-communicate", then he pulls off this sugar honey iced-tea with essentially no communication, ughh!
Isn't it amazing how much trust Delany had an inside of a year from his retirement a mutiny is at hand because of the ineptitude of his predecessor.
Reasons that Kevin Warren (and he alone) made this call are pure speculation but likely have to do with amateurism and the legal case to pay players, but at this point nothing is going to stop that train anyway so why ruin your programs?
Anyway, word around the campfire is that 4 schools led by Ohio State along with Penn State, Iowa, and Nebraska are attempting to have a double round-robin season (link above). They are trying to convince Michigan and Wisconsin to join them but ultimately they will need 2 other programs to join them to make the plan work. You have to understand that those 6 schools basically represent the strength of the B1G and there is no way that the B1G could consider kicking them out so this is an absolute pump move by these schools. Let's take a sec and look at potential target schools to join the mutiny.
Group 1: Rutgers & Maryland (don't have political support nor the clout within the conference to take such a risk)
Group 2: Northwestern & Minnesota (in regions decimated by recent upheaval, also probably lack political support to swim against the grain.
Group 3. Indiana, Purdue, & Illinois. (These are the fallback schools) they are in areas that would have political support but don't really add much to the viewership.
Group 4. Michigan, Wisconsin, & Sparty (these schools represent the rest of the power of the B1G and the "4 dissenters" have to get 2 of these. Sparty is presently in transition so the clear-cut mandatory schools are UM and UW.
If the new Commissioner, Kevin Warren, insists on not having a season and these 6 break away, they would be in an EXTREMELY powerful position to do whatever the hell they want to do in relationship to a new Big Ten. Cherry pick only the schools they want out of the Big Ten and add a smattering of desirable schools based on locale or recruiting. That being said I think Maryland & Rutgers would be 7 & 8 because of population and recruiting territory, Delany added them for a reason and if nothing else that reason is recruiting.
My point is that I foresee a situation with the rebellious 6 like the WCHA dropping UAB and the Alaska schools and forming a new conference of essentially the same members. Dropping the least valuable rustbelt schools and either going East after the heart of the ACC or more likely going West after the heart of the Big 12 and more generally the state of Texas. They could jettison maybe Northwestern and Purdue and add maybe Oklahoma and Texas and magically the East and West divisions would be balanced. They could also expand past fourteen to 16 or 20 to go after the Mid-Atlantic and Southern States of the ACC. If Texas and Oklahoma were already in the boat you'd probably need to add six ACC schools for any of them to come anyway (something like: UVA, Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Florida State) expecting VA Tech and NC State to go to the SEC and the southern schools to be less desirable to the SEC because they already have schools in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
In the expansions of 1990 to 92 the SEC discussed at length the strategies they would impose in the event of the Big 10 attempting to move down the East Coast into the Southeast. At the time Jackie Sherrill spoke of the defensive plan to move to 20 taking in Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, possibly Miami and trying to pick up schools in states of North Carolina and Virginia.
It was considered a matter of protecting branding. That sentiment is even stronger today, especially when many consider Florida State and Clemson to be the two most SEC like schools.
Adding to the stress are the concerns that led Florida to sponsor Florida State for membership in '91 and led both Florida and South Carolina to be willing to sponsor Florida State and Clemson for membership in 2010 prompting Slive to ask for the much misreported gentlemen's agreement which actually asked South Carolina and Florida to hold off on such nominations until the requirements of the re-negotiation clause with ESPN were met, which required two new markets to be added before the payouts could be re-negotiated. Slive's promise was that after 2010-2 only profitability would be considered. Now that we've moved into a content driven pay model more than a market driven one (though that is still important to T3 agreements and conference networks) the additions of Clemson and Florida State would be urged by people in those two states since all 4 schools use the ticket availability of those annual games for the basis of their donations to the athletic fund.
With Georgia Tech there has been some pressure in the past by the legislature to include Tech in any expansion because of the budgetary needs of Georgia Tech and because the UGa / Tech game is another game, especially for Tech fans, that draws donations for tickets. Georgia does have Auburn and Florida tickets which also figure in.
In 2010-2 Kentucky was the only SEC member not to express interest in adding their in state rival.
So for the protection of those games, and for the protection of branding within our own region I'm confident the SEC would pursue those schools in the event of a raid on the ACC by the Big 10.
But there is another possibility you ignore. The SEC could easily accommodate Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan, or even Indiana. If you joined the SEC simply as a 4 to 6 team division of former Big 10 schools the media payouts for all concerned would hit near 100 million per school per year and the ticket revenue would only go up. Add Penn State in place of Indiana and you now have 7 venues of over 100,000 in which to play games. The revenue from the synergy of the natural rivalries, the size of the loyal fan bases, and the level of play would have to be considered and such a move gives all of those schools regular access to Southeastern recruiting. Now if Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson and Florida State wanted to join that we would essentially have a self contained playoff for the national championship annually.
That aside the schools that would legitimately be in play for your breakaway would be Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Virginia, North Carolina, Pittsburgh and possibly Notre Dame. You might even draw Oregon, Washington, Stanford and U.S.C. for another super conference like the one the SEC would assemble with Clemson and Florida State.
I see that more of a viable plan given what I know to be conference strategies in the SEC.
And I would add to that getting ESPN on board as your primary carrier would be essential for landing Texas, or any ACC schools.
That said I also don't rule out the potential (not likelihood) of a Nebraska bolting for old friends and old recruiting grounds, or a Penn State joining with Notre Dame to make the ACC a very viable contender in the East.
Honestly, what do you think this conference would be worth:
Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
My guess is between 110 to 120 million per school per year.
The four division champions become your CFP.
(This post was last modified: 08-20-2020 09:34 PM by JRsec.)
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