(08-17-2020 12:22 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Its not that simple. (Besides 269 / 269 will still go to Trump.)

1. Biden has to has to hold on to states like MN, CO, NV, NM, NJ, NH and VA. All of those states are vulnerable.

2. Biden has to win back PA and MI, AND flip another state, while running the board on the above states.

Thats a lot of defending he has to do. Not easy when you are restricted to your basement.

an electoral tie goes to the House; and the Democrats control the House.

(08-17-2020 01:06 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 12:22 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Its not that simple. (Besides 269 / 269 will still go to Trump.)

1. Biden has to has to hold on to states like MN, CO, NV, NM, NJ, NH and VA. All of those states are vulnerable.

2. Biden has to win back PA and MI, AND flip another state, while running the board on the above states.

Thats a lot of defending he has to do. Not easy when you are restricted to your basement.

an electoral tie goes to the House; and the Democrats control the House.

You sure about that Mensa designation? Electoral College tie goes to the house for state delegate votes. Each state has 1. Repubs own that one.

(08-17-2020 01:16 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 01:06 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 12:22 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Its not that simple. (Besides 269 / 269 will still go to Trump.)

1. Biden has to has to hold on to states like MN, CO, NV, NM, NJ, NH and VA. All of those states are vulnerable.

2. Biden has to win back PA and MI, AND flip another state, while running the board on the above states.

Thats a lot of defending he has to do. Not easy when you are restricted to your basement.

an electoral tie goes to the House; and the Democrats control the House.

You sure about that Mensa designation? Electoral College tie goes to the house for state delegate votes. Each state has 1. Repubs own that one.

but Mensa doh..........


I guess he's lost his 269/269 hardon now.....

Here's a question, and I know it is early...but what are the first states to look at on election night to see which way we are heading? I'm assuming Florida of course...but what other states? NC or GA?

(08-17-2020 12:52 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 12:29 PM)Crebman Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 12:22 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Its not that simple. (Besides 269 / 269 will still go to Trump.)

1. Biden has to has to hold on to states like MN, CO, NV, NM, NJ, NH and VA. All of those states are vulnerable.
R
2. Biden has to win back PA and MI, AND flip another state, while running the board on the above states.

Thats a lot of defending he has to do. Not easy when you are restricted to your basement.

.......and have early onset dementia.

He’s virtually 78 years old. That’s a bit late for “early onset”, isn’t it?

Touché.......how about just dementia??

Actually hard to believe a guy obviously in a diminished mental capacity will have millions vote for him.

Such is the strength of TDS......astonishing.....

(08-17-2020 12:13 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 12:02 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 11:47 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  ... its hard seeing him lose a state in today's climate that Hillary won in 2016, perhaps Minnesota is Trump's best shot.

so it really comes down to holding MN and flipping Michigan and Pennsylvania for Biden.

I guess MN will have to decide whether they like the destruction of Minneapolis under Dems. If they do, then they are getting what they deserve.

The events in Minneapolis definitely tightened the race in Minnesota but its a pretty reliable blue state; and Joe Biden is a pretty traditional democratic candidate.

He may very well be a traditional candidate except for his obvious mental decline. My father is facing his own bout of dementia and it only gets worse.

Harris is a very problematic candidate. She leans way left and I'm sure Trump and Pence will focus on that.

Lol...joe has no shot

He ain't flipping PA...

(08-17-2020 01:16 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 01:06 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 12:22 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Its not that simple. (Besides 269 / 269 will still go to Trump.)

1. Biden has to has to hold on to states like MN, CO, NV, NM, NJ, NH and VA. All of those states are vulnerable.

2. Biden has to win back PA and MI, AND flip another state, while running the board on the above states.

Thats a lot of defending he has to do. Not easy when you are restricted to your basement.

an electoral tie goes to the House; and the Democrats control the House.

You sure about that Mensa designation? Electoral College tie goes to the house for state delegate votes. Each state has 1. Repubs own that one.

Amazing how little people know about how the system actually works.

(08-17-2020 01:37 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  Here's a question, and I know it is early...but what are the first states to look at on election night to see which way we are heading? I'm assuming Florida of course...but what other states? NC or GA?

Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are locks for Trump. Florida and North Carolina will be close, but comfortable.

The first states to look at are ME, NH, PA, MI, WI, MN.

Obama carried NC by 14,000 votes in 2008. The only other Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since LBJ was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Joe's going to have a hard tie carrying states if he cant even remember how many grand kids he has.

(08-17-2020 03:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 01:37 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  Here's a question, and I know it is early...but what are the first states to look at on election night to see which way we are heading? I'm assuming Florida of course...but what other states? NC or GA?

Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are locks for Trump. Florida and North Carolina will be close, but comfortable.

The first states to look at are ME, NH, PA, MI, WI, MN.

Obama carried NC by 14,000 votes in 2008. The only other Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since LBJ was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Florida and North Carolina are not locks for Trump.

(08-17-2020 05:03 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 03:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 01:37 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  Here's a question, and I know it is early...but what are the first states to look at on election night to see which way we are heading? I'm assuming Florida of course...but what other states? NC or GA?

Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are locks for Trump. Florida and North Carolina will be close, but comfortable.

The first states to look at are ME, NH, PA, MI, WI, MN.

Obama carried NC by 14,000 votes in 2008. The only other Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since LBJ was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Florida and North Carolina are not locks for Trump.

They are as much of a lock as VA and IL are for democrats.

(08-17-2020 05:13 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 05:03 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 03:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 01:37 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  Here's a question, and I know it is early...but what are the first states to look at on election night to see which way we are heading? I'm assuming Florida of course...but what other states? NC or GA?

Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are locks for Trump. Florida and North Carolina will be close, but comfortable.

The first states to look at are ME, NH, PA, MI, WI, MN.

Obama carried NC by 14,000 votes in 2008. The only other Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since LBJ was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Florida and North Carolina are not locks for Trump.

They are as much of a lock as VA and IL are for democrats.

Nope...
Right now, Biden has a 92% shot at carrying Virginia, a 99% shot at Illinois, 64% chance of winning Florida and a 48% chance in North Carolina. North Carolina and Florida are very competitive... Illinois and Virginia are not.

Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are the key.

If Trumps wins all of those it is over for Biden. If Biden wins one of those it will be hard for Trump to win.

(08-17-2020 05:53 PM)UofMTigerTim Wrote:  Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are the key.

If Trumps wins all of those it is over for Biden. If Biden wins one of those it will be hard for Trump to win.

Math is not your strong point.

If Trump carries everything he did last time except PA and nothing he didn't win, he still has 286 electoral votes.

(08-17-2020 08:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-17-2020 05:53 PM)UofMTigerTim Wrote:  Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are the key.

If Trumps wins all of those it is over for Biden. If Biden wins one of those it will be hard for Trump to win.

Math is not your strong point.

If Trump carries everything he did last time except PA and nothing he didn't win, he still has 286 electoral votes.

I wasn’t trying to do math. I was simply making a point that we may know early in the evening of election night how the election will go.

(08-17-2020 04:52 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Joe's going to have a hard tie carrying states if he cant even remember how many grand kids he has.

Hard to hear that. He is a guy though and at his age Im not surprised he does not know how many grand kids he has of the top of his head...but...He is for sure having issues. My guess is privately he does ok..but when put in front of situations where he has to "wing it"..he loses it. Not good.