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Math problem - what's your theory?
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banker Offline
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Post: #1
Math problem - what's your theory?
The thing that has been interesting to me with this "second wave, Covid surge" is the strange divergence between cases and deaths. We don't hear much about deaths anymore, just the cases.

Below are all the top states for number of cases. The number beside each represents the number of cases per death, simply if they had 100 cases and ten deaths their number would be 10.

Texas - 77.2
Florida - 72.4
California - 54.3
Arizona - 49.0
Georgia - 48.0
Illinois - 22.7
Massachusetts- 13.6
New York - 13.5
New Jersey- 11.7

So, what exactly causes people in the northeast to die at such an elevated rate? The numbers say that if you get the Covid in NJ it's about 7 times more likely to kill you than if you got it in Texas. That just seems very odd.

Some possibilities -

Maybe it has mutated and isn't as deadly any more
Maybe all this "positive" tests aren't really Covid positives at all
Maybe the NE states grossly inflated their deaths attributed to Covid
Maybe the further north you go, the easier you die.

What I can surmise it isn't is the level of testing. All those states have done a ton of testing. So why this huge difference?
07-26-2020 10:42 PM
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WKUYG Away
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Post: #2
RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
My personal belief a lot of the deaths early on (still that way) are asst living/nursing homes. The wave of cases we are seeing now, are the result of 10s of thousand young people in those states protesting in large groups. While the cases go up....

young people very rarely die from covid 19
07-26-2020 10:50 PM
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JMUDunk Offline
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Math problem - what's your theory?
Age.

Who else would the CCP want to rub out sooner as “those no longer productive”? They’ve been doing it for generations.

Remember one child policy? And the ritual killing or aborting of girls? Why? They couldn’t work as hard. Now they find themselves in a shortage of girls old enough to replace the workers.

The average age of succumbing to the chinese virus is 78, thanks to Mario’s kid. Who else would they target for such a thing?

Ans: old people, no longer “useful” and a drain on the beautiful system.

Someone tell me I’m wrong.
07-26-2020 10:52 PM
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WKUYG Away
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
Something that might be fueling the higher death rate in the northeast....

a lot more people are living cramped in apartment buildings. Since this is hitting Hispanics and blacks at a higher rate. Both group are more likely to have a older parent or even grandparent living with them. So just like nursing homes you have a lot of older, sick, people living together or going through the same doors each day in high rise apartment buildings

While a few of those states have higher rates of Hispanics and blacks....its not as compacted and a larger percentage of older people most likely live on their own. Than the northeast states being hit the hardest.
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2020 11:14 PM by WKUYG.)
07-26-2020 11:06 PM
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EverRespect Offline
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-26-2020 10:42 PM)banker Wrote:  The thing that has been interesting to me with this "second wave, Covid surge" is the strange divergence between cases and deaths. We don't hear much about deaths anymore, just the cases.

Below are all the top states for number of cases. The number beside each represents the number of cases per death, simply if they had 100 cases and ten deaths their number would be 10.

Texas - 77.2
Florida - 72.4
California - 54.3
Arizona - 49.0
Georgia - 48.0
Illinois - 22.7
Massachusetts- 13.6
New York - 13.5
New Jersey- 11.7

So, what exactly causes people in the northeast to die at such an elevated rate? The numbers say that if you get the Covid in NJ it's about 7 times more likely to kill you than if you got it in Texas. That just seems very odd.

Some possibilities -

Maybe it has mutated and isn't as deadly any more
Maybe all this "positive" tests aren't really Covid positives at all
Maybe the NE states grossly inflated their deaths attributed to Covid
Maybe the further north you go, the easier you die.

What I can surmise it isn't is the level of testing. All those states have done a ton of testing. So why this huge difference?
Combination of:

1. Testing capacity has increased dramatically. If test availability were what it is now at the beginning, states like NY likely would have seen far greater numbers of cases.

2. Studies show the virus is weakening.

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07-27-2020 07:03 AM
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banker Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
I agree that higher density leads to more cases. I also agree that it is possible that the cases are more widely spread across the age spectrum. I'm not so sure either is the answer. If I have two states with similar infection rates (cases per million) with that info derived from similar testing rates, and those states have similar demographics across the age spectrum, why a death rate 5-7 times higher in one of the states?

According to the data, 75,000 of the first 1,250,000 who got this died. Since then less than 75,000 of the next 3,000,000 to get it have died. I understand their is some time lag there, but the change is obvious.

I'm starting to believe that all these new cases contain a huge number of non covid positives. The CDC has stated on their website that just having a common cold virus can lead to a positive result. I don't doubt that the numbers have gone back up with reopening, but I don't buy that the real case rate is three times higher than early May.
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2020 07:19 AM by banker.)
07-27-2020 07:11 AM
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BuffaloTN Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
The whole thing is tracking exactly like the Diamond Princess ship. It was all anybody needed to study to see how the numbers would fall. Y'all are getting played. Period.
07-27-2020 07:20 AM
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stinkfist Offline
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-27-2020 07:20 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  The whole thing is tracking exactly like the Diamond Princess ship. It was all anybody needed to study to see how the numbers would fall. Y'all are getting played. Period.

^^^ .... I'll go with S.S. Minnow as the end game....

nothing but fk'n nonsense...'cept it's not funny how they're playing with lives and $$$ like a kitty and yarn....
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2020 07:49 AM by stinkfist.)
07-27-2020 07:46 AM
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CardinalJim Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
The Chinese Communist Party uses the useful idiots of the DNC to target the Country and President. The CCP knew, as anybody that watched CNN knew, that the DNC would be resistant to any early action by our President to slow the spread of the virus. When Trump announces that he’s stopping Chinese Nationals from entering the country. Pelosi and Schumer immediately did their part and condemned the act as racist.

By the end of February Pelosi was in Chinatown urging Californians to come visit San Francisco’s Chinatown. The first week of March De Blasio was telling his Twitter followers to ignore the virus. He even tweeted out theatre reviews to Urge his followers to attend Broadway shows.

As the virus began to spread the DNC immediately pivoted and the message was Trump didn’t do enough. Democratic Governors Association quietly met and agreed to shutdown their states to cripple the economy. Millions were spent to build temporary hospitals. Hospital ships were sent to help Democrats deal with a problem that never materialized.

As Democrat states were shutdown, state economy’s were crippled. Schools closed, day cares were shutdown in turn forcing workers to stay home. Governors held daily briefings to instill fear in as many as they could. All as Dr Fauci went from saying a mask was useless, just wash your hands to wear a mask or you’ll die.

Fast forward to the end of June deaths are plummeting, everywhere but Democratic cities like New York, businesses start opening back up, economy numbers were better than expected. The DNC couldn’t have that. Time for Act II.

Act II in July has been all about cases, not deaths. The complacent media has done what it always does as the propaganda machine of the DNC. It played along. Now the virus, as the media has been instructed to report, is attacking young people. Young people are getting it...oh no. You don’t hear about the number of deaths going down, you hear about young people catching it on the beach or at the bar.

Ironically you never hear that BLM, Antifa, NFAC or any other hate group is spreading the virus as they burn, loot and riot across the country. The only people that can spread the virus are those working to provide for their families, worshipping at church, or living their lives as normal.

Presently we are facing more shutdowns and no end to the virus. All because there is an election this November that the DNC cannot afford to lose. With the help of the CCP, the DNC is doing everything it can to win back the White House, up to and including targeting Senior Citizens with the virus.

The DNC has successfully weaponized the virus. They have used the virus to target old people purposely targeting the most conservative group in the country. People of age are the most dependable Republican voters. The Democrats wanted to get rid of them and did.

I wait patiently for the virus to disappear come November 4th. Biden will magically announce a cure and all will be well again for useful idiots of the DNC.

Personally win or lose I’ll be preparing to fight against the oppression of the Left.
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2020 08:04 AM by CardinalJim.)
07-27-2020 07:51 AM
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EverRespect Offline
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-27-2020 07:20 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  The whole thing is tracking exactly like the Diamond Princess ship. It was all anybody needed to study to see how the numbers would fall. Y'all are getting played. Period.

Explain. Not arguing I just don't understand the Diamond Princess analogy.
07-27-2020 07:55 AM
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stinkfist Offline
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-27-2020 07:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(07-27-2020 07:20 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  The whole thing is tracking exactly like the Diamond Princess ship. It was all anybody needed to study to see how the numbers would fall. Y'all are getting played. Period.

Explain. Not arguing I just don't understand the Diamond Princess analogy.

hint: cruise ship
07-27-2020 07:57 AM
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BuffaloTN Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-27-2020 07:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(07-27-2020 07:20 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  The whole thing is tracking exactly like the Diamond Princess ship. It was all anybody needed to study to see how the numbers would fall. Y'all are getting played. Period.

Explain. Not arguing I just don't understand the Diamond Princess analogy.

The cruise ship that had the COVID outbreak very early on. It was the perfect ecosystem to see how it spread, who got infected, who died. Plus the population on board skewed older. 3,711 on the ship. Only 13 died. I'm guessing they were all older. 712 supposedly infected with COVID.
07-27-2020 08:03 AM
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-27-2020 08:03 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  
(07-27-2020 07:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(07-27-2020 07:20 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  The whole thing is tracking exactly like the Diamond Princess ship. It was all anybody needed to study to see how the numbers would fall. Y'all are getting played. Period.

Explain. Not arguing I just don't understand the Diamond Princess analogy.

The cruise ship that had the COVID outbreak very early on. It was the perfect ecosystem to see how it spread, who got infected, who died. Plus the population on board skewed older. 3,711 on the ship. Only 13 died. I'm guessing they were all older. 712 supposedly infected with COVID.

Thanks
07-27-2020 08:10 AM
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BuffaloTN Offline
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-27-2020 08:10 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(07-27-2020 08:03 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  
(07-27-2020 07:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(07-27-2020 07:20 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  The whole thing is tracking exactly like the Diamond Princess ship. It was all anybody needed to study to see how the numbers would fall. Y'all are getting played. Period.

Explain. Not arguing I just don't understand the Diamond Princess analogy.

The cruise ship that had the COVID outbreak very early on. It was the perfect ecosystem to see how it spread, who got infected, who died. Plus the population on board skewed older. 3,711 on the ship. Only 13 died. I'm guessing they were all older. 712 supposedly infected with COVID.

Thanks

no problemo
07-27-2020 08:15 AM
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umbluegray Offline
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-26-2020 10:52 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Age.

Who else would the CCP want to rub out sooner as “those no longer productive”? They’ve been doing it for generations.

Remember one child policy? And the ritual killing or aborting of girls? Why? They couldn’t work as hard. Now they find themselves in a shortage of girls old enough to replace the workers.

The average age of succumbing to the chinese virus is 78, thanks to Mario’s kid. Who else would they target for such a thing?

Ans: old people, no longer “useful” and a drain on the beautiful system.

Someone tell me I’m wrong.

This is not that far-fetched. For years and years communist Russia had one of the worlds highest suicide rates among older people. As you age out you become a drain on the system... a consumer rather than a contributer.

Remember, Marxism says the equal LIABILITY for all to work.

Not opportunity. A liability is something you OWE, a debt. You OWE your labor to the state.
07-27-2020 08:27 AM
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-27-2020 08:15 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  
(07-27-2020 08:10 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(07-27-2020 08:03 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  
(07-27-2020 07:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(07-27-2020 07:20 AM)BuffaloTN Wrote:  The whole thing is tracking exactly like the Diamond Princess ship. It was all anybody needed to study to see how the numbers would fall. Y'all are getting played. Period.

Explain. Not arguing I just don't understand the Diamond Princess analogy.

The cruise ship that had the COVID outbreak very early on. It was the perfect ecosystem to see how it spread, who got infected, who died. Plus the population on board skewed older. 3,711 on the ship. Only 13 died. I'm guessing they were all older. 712 supposedly infected with COVID.

Thanks

no problemo

It was pretty much the worst case scenario. People couldn't get off the ship. Enclosed spaces. Death rate was 3,680 per million. New York and New Jersey are around 1700 per million.

Interestingly, the Channel Islands are worse at 47 deaths and 12,692 per million. Maybe there were a lot of retirees there. Next worse is San Marino at 1,243, then Belgium at 859.
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2020 09:35 AM by bullet.)
07-27-2020 09:34 AM
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-27-2020 08:27 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  
(07-26-2020 10:52 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Age.

Who else would the CCP want to rub out sooner as “those no longer productive”? They’ve been doing it for generations.

Remember one child policy? And the ritual killing or aborting of girls? Why? They couldn’t work as hard. Now they find themselves in a shortage of girls old enough to replace the workers.

The average age of succumbing to the chinese virus is 78, thanks to Mario’s kid. Who else would they target for such a thing?

Ans: old people, no longer “useful” and a drain on the beautiful system.

Someone tell me I’m wrong.

This is not that far-fetched. For years and years communist Russia had one of the worlds highest suicide rates among older people. As you age out you become a drain on the system... a consumer rather than a contributer.

Remember, Marxism says the equal LIABILITY for all to work.

Not opportunity. A liability is something you OWE, a debt. You OWE your labor to the state.

^^^ #morewisdom
07-27-2020 09:47 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-26-2020 10:42 PM)banker Wrote:  The thing that has been interesting to me with this "second wave, Covid surge" is the strange divergence between cases and deaths. We don't hear much about deaths anymore, just the cases.

Below are all the top states for number of cases. The number beside each represents the number of cases per death, simply if they had 100 cases and ten deaths their number would be 10.

Texas - 77.2
Florida - 72.4
California - 54.3
Arizona - 49.0
Georgia - 48.0
Illinois - 22.7
Massachusetts- 13.6
New York - 13.5
New Jersey- 11.7

So, what exactly causes people in the northeast to die at such an elevated rate? The numbers say that if you get the Covid in NJ it's about 7 times more likely to kill you than if you got it in Texas. That just seems very odd.

Some possibilities -

Maybe it has mutated and isn't as deadly any more
Maybe all this "positive" tests aren't really Covid positives at all
Maybe the NE states grossly inflated their deaths attributed to Covid
Maybe the further north you go, the easier you die.

What I can surmise it isn't is the level of testing. All those states have done a ton of testing. So why this huge difference?

Banker... I'm not questioning you, but do you have the source for this data? I'd like to look more indepth to actually try and answer this question.

My gut reaction has to do with whom, why and when we're testing... By that I mean, NY probably missed tens of thousands of early, low symptom illnesses as we were shutting down... and Texas is catching all of them as we try and open back up. People who got it in NYC in April would now have antibodies in July and not test positive for a viral test. Mildly symptomatic people who got it in Texas in July are getting tested as part of their return to work protocols.
07-27-2020 09:51 AM
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cosine4 Offline
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
(07-27-2020 09:51 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(07-26-2020 10:42 PM)banker Wrote:  The thing that has been interesting to me with this "second wave, Covid surge" is the strange divergence between cases and deaths. We don't hear much about deaths anymore, just the cases.

Below are all the top states for number of cases. The number beside each represents the number of cases per death, simply if they had 100 cases and ten deaths their number would be 10.

Texas - 77.2
Florida - 72.4
California - 54.3
Arizona - 49.0
Georgia - 48.0
Illinois - 22.7
Massachusetts- 13.6
New York - 13.5
New Jersey- 11.7

So, what exactly causes people in the northeast to die at such an elevated rate? The numbers say that if you get the Covid in NJ it's about 7 times more likely to kill you than if you got it in Texas. That just seems very odd.

Some possibilities -

Maybe it has mutated and isn't as deadly any more
Maybe all this "positive" tests aren't really Covid positives at all
Maybe the NE states grossly inflated their deaths attributed to Covid
Maybe the further north you go, the easier you die.

What I can surmise it isn't is the level of testing. All those states have done a ton of testing. So why this huge difference?

Banker... I'm not questioning you, but do you have the source for this data? I'd like to look more indepth to actually try and answer this question.

My gut reaction has to do with whom, why and when we're testing... By that I mean, NY probably missed tens of thousands of early, low symptom illnesses as we were shutting down... and Texas is catching all of them as we try and open back up. People who got it in NYC in April would now have antibodies in July and not test positive for a viral test. Mildly symptomatic people who got it in Texas in July are getting tested as part of their return to work protocols.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/states-comparison
It lines up pretty close to "CONFIRMED CASES" divided by "DEATHS" in this data.
07-27-2020 10:07 AM
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Bronco'14 Offline
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RE: Math problem - what's your theory?
We never heard about death #s other than Italy for a few days. That's how I knew it was all political from the start.

I'm shocked this isn't the #1 topic of threads on these boards, TBH. The wokeness is out of control, but all are rights were stripped away overnight and it's going indefinite, & no one said anything other then a few thousand online. I think it's going to go on for a few years. Why do you think they label it as a 'new normal', Fauci saying handshakes are a thing of the past, etc. If Trump wins, it's to continue to undermine him. If Biden wins, it'll be the 'excuse' to usher in communism. Believe me, this way of life is here to stay. Sporting events/concerts/bars/churches/indoor dining at restaraunts/gyms/vacations/reusable grocery bags/bottle & can returns/buffets all a thing of the dinosaurs for a loooong time. From now on you live in fear & only the government (specifically Joe Biden) can save you.
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2020 10:29 AM by Bronco'14.)
07-27-2020 10:16 AM
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