(07-21-2020 06:53 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: I have a question of G5 vs Indy. How many of you guys think UMass or NM State, as independents, are “playing at a higher level” than a UCF, Houston, Memphis, Boise or Cincinnati? I get the sense that a lot of you feel this way.
I don’t think UMass or NMSU are playing at a higher level than the G5 conference members. Of course, those schools didn’t actually choose independence and they would be more than happy to join the AAC or MWC, respectively.
BYU has a better schedule (in the sense of playing more P5 schools) than a G5 school and UConn seems to be heading in that direction. Those are the schools that legitimately *chose* independence. I think the key factor for both of them is that they truly in their heart of hearts believed that they would have been in P5 conferences at this point. BYU has the added factor of its #1 hated rival getting a Pac-12 invite, while UConn had its basketball brand and historical natural landing spot with the Big East. Put all of that together and that’s why they’re willing to take a haircut on football rights fees in exchange for (at least in their minds) a way to be separate from the *structural* inferiority of the G5.
Independence doesn’t really make sense as a true *choice* for the vast majority of schools, although I’d agree with the UMass AD insofar that it’s not quite the outrageous crazy move that it might have been 5 years ago as long as a schools fits a certain type of profile. Geography is still the basis of most conference structures, so if a school’s profile is distinct from its geographic location, then it’s more likely that independence is viable. Schools that have true national profiles as opposed to being tied to a geographic region, such as the service academies, have always been natural candidates for independence (which is why Army is one and Navy used to be one). I don’t think it’s an accident that 3 independents happen to be highly religious schools (ND, BYU and Liberty), where once again their reasons for existence and draws for students are way beyond their respective geographic regions.
There are also the schools that feel that they legitimately deserve P5 membership but might be resigned to the fact that they won’t ever be invited due to rival schools blocking them, academics or other factors outside of their control. The schools in the MAC and Sun Belt are largely just happy to be playing FBS football. There are quite a few schools in the AAC and MWC, though, with significant chips on their shoulders and feel that they are school #66 in a system that is only allowing 65 schools in the P5 structure... and we live in a world where the gap in treatment, revenue and prestige between #65 and #66 is the size of the Grand Canyon. That’s what happened with UConn and BYU.
Could you see a school like, say, Boise State (where the MWC TV contracts explicitly call out that the Boise State games are more valuable) choose independence? What about the AAC schools that were defined as being in the “top tier” in that league’s contracts? To be very clear, I don’t think it’s *likely* that any of them would leave (as UConn had its home in the Big East for basketball and BYU has the backing of an entire religious denomination), but it’s not the 100% NFW non-starter that it was a few years ago, either. The P5 membership looks to be pretty much set for the foreseeable future, so the schools that perceive themselves to be the most valuable in the G5 are the ones that are more likely to get restless with the status quo.