bill dazzle
Craft beer and urban living enthusiast
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I Root For: Vandy/Memphis/DePaul/UNC
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RE: My Take on What Might Have Happened if the Big East Had Struck First Which....
(07-11-2020 04:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: (07-11-2020 12:09 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: (07-11-2020 09:41 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: (07-11-2020 08:06 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote: Here's a what-if:
What if the Catholic 7 was not able/allowed to split off from the football schools?
Going by memory of what happened in late 2012, this would have been the lineup for the Big East:
Providence
St. John's
Seton Hall
Villanova
Georgetown
DePaul
Marquette
UConn
Temple
Navy (FB only)
ECU (FB only)
UCF
USF
Cincinnati
Memphis
Tulane
Houston
SMU
11 for football, 16 for non football.
No telling if Tulsa would have gotten the green light by the C7 to join because they were already committed to separate from the FB schools by the time a vote was held on Tulsa.
Boise and SDSU still would have gone back to the MW due to the low paying contract that was being offered.
A better what-if:
Now knowing what we all know now, what if UConn and Cincinnati chose to depart with the C7, thus breaking up the Big East, keeping all of the exit fees, and reorganizing the Big East as a non-football entity once again. UConn and Cincinnati could have kept a larger portion of the exit fees, while maintaining a consistent and strong basketball payout to financially support them as FBS Independents in the immediate term. With the New Big East breakup, they could easily look to schedule alliances with Temple, Army and any other handful of (then) higher-up C-USA programs.
This prevents the Big East from inviting Xavier (as Cincinnati remains in tow), but still likely invites Butler to get to ten members. It is unclear, possibly unlikely, that the BE9 invite Creighton (as it remains outside the footprint). VCU and SLU remain possibilities. This also prevents the "demotion" in conferences of both UConn and UC for the (then) immediate term, and allows them to pivot as FBS Independents the same way BYU did (still considered a power program but not in a power conference).
For the football call-ups - UCF, Memphis, Houston, SMU, Tulane, ECU, Tulsa - as well as USF, they remain stuck in C-USA, with no higher conference to climb to. While the merger concept with the MWC still likely gets shot down, perhaps they move to an alliance, as previously discussed. This means that LA Tech, UTSA, North Texas, FIU, Old Dominion, FAU and MTSU do not get called up either (but Charlotte joins as a full member).
Interesting scenario.
So the Big East would have had (likely)
Providence
UConn
St. John's
Villanova
Seton Hall
Georgetown
Cincinnati
Marquette
DePaul
and ...
let's say Butler
As a Cincy fan, I would have been thrilled for Bearcat basketball but concerned for football.
So ....
Let's say we see one of two hypotheticals stem from this Big East move — assuming the strongest of the then-damaged C-USA do not want to be "stuck":
Scenario One
Memphis, Houston, SMU, Temple, UCF and South Florida band together and leave C-USA (obviously Temple was never in C-USA and USF would be leaving the Big East in this scenario).
The six go "indy" in football and arrange a football scheduling alliance with UConn, Cincy, Navy and perhaps UMass and/or Army. This was done in the 1990s before C-USA was formed. Or ... those schools create a football-only DI league (much like the Missouri Valley Football Conference is a football-only FCS league).
That takes care of football with a league (or affiliation) of at least eight schools.
So at this point, Memphis, Houston, SMU, Temple, UCF and South Florida need six or eight more to create a new 12- or 14-team conference for all sports but football with the emphasis being to create the best men's hoops league possible: They definitely invite Wichita and Creighton. So that's a strong eight. Then they invite four to six schools (with non-DI football programs) from the following group of 10: Saint Louis, Xavier, Dayton, VCU, UMass, Rhode Island, Davidson, Duquesne, Bradley and Loyola. If the Big East has already grabbed, say, Creighton, Saint Louis and Dayton in this hypothetical, there still remain nine quality options from which to choose six or eight.
Such a league in men's basketball would be, hypothetically, better than the current American in men's hoops and allow, specifically, Memphis, Houston, SMU and Temple (with their quality hoops programs) to keep recruiting at a high level.
Scenario Two
Houston, SMU, Memphis and a fourth school (perhaps Tulane) are offered as a "package deal" to the Mountain West, with that league accepting and thus going to 14. In the process, the MWC gravely injures C-USA and solidifies itself as the "best of the G4."
Both scenarios would have been unlikely but not beyond the realm of possibility.
To your first scenario, the then-BE callups would not have been able to break away from C-USA and form a new league/coalition. Firstly, they would not have had the qualifications to start a new non-football league and maintain an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament (both in the number of teams, and the length that these teams would have been together); thus, Olympic sports (but mostly basketball) would have been negatively impacted significantly (not to mention increasing travel fees without the next financial point).
Secondly, it was due to the associations with UConn, Cincinnati and USF that the call-ups were able to get an increase in both payouts and TV exposure with the BE/AAC. Without those three programs (and the then association with a BCS conference), the callups do not get either (thus, eliminating any desire from a TV network paying/giving more for strictly a C-USA make-up). The money clearly would just not have been there (heck, the money was barely there to begin with at the start for the AAC). There would have been zero difference in content/perception than what it was in C-USA.
The second scenario is a possibility (as there were even rumors that UC/UConn were considering football membership in the MWC, after the C7 announced they were leaving). The Eastern BE/AAC/C-USA league just would not have had enough bodies or enough value to make it work at the time. The top of the ladder would have been C-USA in the East and the MWC in the West. The call-ups did prefer Eastern exposure, however; so it is still likely that Houston, Memphis, UCF and Tulane all choose to remain in C-USA.
As to your counter points to my first scenario, strong job. I hammered out that rather insane hypothetical after about four cups of coffee and with no food on the stomach. Was not thinking clearly. I was essentially bouncing off the walls on a caffeine high.
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2020 08:54 AM by bill dazzle.)
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