(06-11-2020 10:01 PM)BruceMcF Wrote: (06-11-2020 07:30 PM)jedclampett Wrote: (06-09-2020 07:08 AM)BruceMcF Wrote: If the training camp is being run correctly, every player is tested every day before they start practice, and if they test positive, we know who the contacts were yesterday: the team and the coaching staff.
True.
Now, what usually happens when "we know who the contacts were yesterday?"
Those persons are contacted by health officials and instructed to self-quarantine for two weeks, to make sure that they don't pass the virus on to anyone else.
Just testing them the next day isn't sufficient, because the false negative rate for the tests is too high, especially when the person tested has only recently been exposed and is asymptomatic.
Because we don't have enough reagent to test them every day ... or if the epidemiologists say so, twice a day ... and we don't have enough immediate response equipment to give everyone an immediate response test, and for the general population, we couldn't be confident of testing them daily (or two or three times, whatever) even if we had that much reagent. A predictable percentage of out-patients simply will not follow up. Quarantine contacts and then test at the end of the quarantine period if not symptoms appear is a protocol that fits the resources at hand.
But in the context of a group in a controlled access location, if someone is a false negative at the time of testing, they were also not infectious at the time of testing. The question to pose to the epidemiologists is how frequently they need to be tested to be confident of a low risk of transmission during the period between a false negative and the following positive if they are in the process of becoming infectious.
Well said.
This is one of the more difficult types of questions that can be posed to an epidemiologist, or to physicians in the field of infectious disease,
due to the limitations of the Covid-19 test kits (limited sensitivity and specificity) and to the highly contagious airborne nature of the disease.
Since the available tests yield such a large number of false negative identifications, [b
]the only way to be confident of a low risk of transmission is to err on the side of caution[/b], by taking precautions such as wearing facial coverings, frequent testing, isolation of individuals who have tested positive, and to be more confident, isolation of individuals who have been in close contact with others who have tested positive.
To be perfectly candid, we must admit to ourselves that there is some risk in holding FB practice at all, in having teammates room together without facial coverings in dormitories, sharing meals in close proximity in dining halls, etc.
The greater the risk - - which increases in direct inverse proportion to the number of precautionary measures employed - - the less confident one can be of a low risk of transmission.
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Let's take a slightly different approach to the issue of Covid-19 testing of college football players itself:
Q: Who should be tested, as frequently as practicable: Just the players and coaching staff?
A: Probably not.
Others would also have to be tested, including everyone who has relatively close/regular contact with the players and coaching staff. The fewer such persons are tested (and isolated when there are positive tests), the lower the confidence level can be.
Q: What should be done when one of these persons tests positive for Covid-19?
A: To be confident that the disease transmission can be limited, such persons should take rigorous precautions, and should minimize social interactions with others (e.g., sharing dorm rooms, dining together with others, working out, etc.), with periodic testing to evaluate the course of the illness and ascertain when the rigorous precautions are no longer required.
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There are also some important questions about how a college President can be relatively confident that the college FB players won't cause an outbreak of an epidemic on campus that could spread throughout the entire student body and staff, family members, etc.
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5 Alabama and 3 Auburn football players has tested positive for COVID-19
