(06-08-2020 06:37 PM)BruceMcF Wrote: You bold faced the comment including "test frequently" and then assumed that they are NOT testing frequently in your hypothetical.
I didn't intend to suggest that they wouldn't test frequently. However, I do question whether they would test frequently enough - - and also use quarantining effectively enough - - to prevent an epidemic on the team from occurring.
To employ testing effectively, they would probably have to test every day, before practice, and quarantine not only the players, but everyone the guys who test positive was in close contact with the day(s) before - - which could include up to half the team.
(06-08-2020 06:37 PM)BruceMcF Wrote: The test is not a crystal ball on whether there will be a detectable viral load tomorrow, it's just a test on whether there is a detectable viral load today. The people who are infected and not detected because they are not emitting a large enough viral load yet ... are also by that same token not very infectious. The way to know whether they have become infectious tomorrow is to test them again tomorrow.
Now, I don't know whether that's daily or twice daily, because I ain't that kind of Doctor, but I am sure that both 'Bama and Auburn can afford the advice of qualified epidemiologists to determine whether to test daily or whether "two a days" are going to take on a whole new meaning.
A bigger issue is going to be players who break quarantine. After all, these are teenage and early twenties young men. There may be a difference in ability to keep players in camp and training between those coaches who are more successful at recruiting for and/or instilling discipline and team spirit and those who are willing to tolerate prima donnas if they have the athletic skills that the team needs.
You make some important points here, illustrating how difficult it could be to protect most of the players from being effective.
Yes, they could afford consultations and testing, but as you say, some players will still be infected.
You didn't mention the "contact tracing" part of the protocol that goes along with testing.
They usually track down the persons who have been in contact and isolate/quarantine them for long enough to determine that they haven't been contaminated. It can take up to 10 days for a person exposed with Covid-19 to develop the disese.
The other major issue, which I should emphasize, is that the tests don't detect every case. There are a significant number of failures to detect Covid-19 infection (i.e., false negative tests).
It's like fishing with a net - - every net has gaps in it, and some of the smaller fish are going to get through. You can catch 90% of them, but some % are going to get through.
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Despite all this, there could be a CFB season. It will be interesting to see if the top ranked teams do the best, or whether Covid-19 will produce a very unfamiliar top 25 at the end of the season. Who knows what will happen? Vanderbilt or Kentucky or UCF could win the national FB championship!
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5 Alabama and 3 Auburn football players has tested positive for COVID-19
