jedclampett
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RE: If the Big 12 were to lose 4 teams, which teams would the conference reload with?
(06-02-2020 12:50 AM)BraveKnight Wrote: (06-02-2020 12:19 AM)jedclampett Wrote: (06-01-2020 11:27 PM)BraveKnight Wrote: (06-01-2020 11:24 PM)jedclampett Wrote: I am astonished that SDSU has only gotten 2 out of the first 119 votes, that Boise State has gotten only 5 votes, and somewhat surprised that BYU has gotten only 10 votes thus far.
However, I'm writing this at 10:25 pm Mountain Time and 9:25 pm Pacific Time. Maybe those schools will catch up in the next 2-3 hours.
San Diego State is just way too far away, and the eastern candidates are much bigger brands, Boise is in a bad location, smallish market, and academics are poor. Not surprising at all really. BYU has religious baggage with them.
I appreciate the fact that these are the standard reasons that people usually mention when they say they don't think these schools would be invited.
However, let's break these down a bit:
I. Boise State:
I get the argument about Boise, but in reply, no other FB program in the country except BYU has had better TV ratings than Boise State.
II. BYU:
Regarding BYU, is there anything more to the term "religious baggage" than a kind of anti-Mormon sentiment in the Big 12? Or, put differently, would the Big 12 refuse to add Notre Dame because of "religious baggage," as well? Both BYU and Notre Dame do play FB on Saturdays. Would the Big 12 oppose BYU simply because they don't play college sports on Sundays?
III. SDSU:
Yes, it takes a little longer to fly to San Diego, but there are benefits to having a California school in the Big 12, even more so than there are benefits to having Hawaii in the MWC.
For example, recruiting: most young men who grow up in the central U.S. would salivate at the idea of making trips to Southern California. A
Does a trip from San Diego State to Dallas take a lot more time than a trip from Dallas to Tampa?
Not a lot more time. Just 30 minutes longer by plane:
SD to Dallas: 2 hr 55 m. Dallas to Tampa: 2 hr 25 m.
Dallas to SD: 3 hr 5 m. Tampa to SD: 2 hr. 35 m.
Overall, it probably makes no more and no less sense to add UCF or USF than it would make to add SDSU.
Viewership: California has a much, much larger population than Florida has. San Diego is a larger metro area by population with more viewership than Tampa both and Orlando, and SDSU would also generate viewership all the way up the coast to the huge Los Angeles metro area (13 million)
You didn’t address the reasons why they won’t be added. San Diego State does not get 13 million viewers, stop being ridiculous. Look at UCF’s TV ratings compared to theirs. We also have considerably more brand value and success, as well as a bigger fanbase. I’m pretty sure UCF gets way better ratings over the last 5 years for football than Boise. Also everyone else clearly agrees with me, look at the poll results. A Big 12 expansion would include UCF, period. Way more upside to adding UCF or usf than any of the schools you mention other than Cincy or Houston. The Big 12 wont add BYU because of their anti-LGBTQ sentiment, among other reasons. San Diego State wasn’t even considered last time, and Boise wasn’t really either. Houston, Cincy, UCF, and usf/Memphis would be the 4. You could make an argument for BYU, Colorado State, SMU, and maybe UConn or Temple, but that’s pretty much it. I like SDSU and Boise, and would prefer them in the current AAC, but they won’t be added to the B12.
Those are pretty good arguments, but I think that Boise FB has had the top viewership numbers among non-P5 teams over the past 5 years.
If Boise St. can't get into the Big 12, it's probably mostly because they're not as strong in BB/olympic sports as they are in FB, and because the Big 12 won't want any FB-only schools.
I hadn't considered the anti-LGBTQ issue. Wonder if BYU would be willing to change the objectionable policies if that would be enough to get them into a P5 conference. My guess is that more than half of BYU fans would encourage such a change. As with Catholic and Evangelical Christians, Mormon attitudes about gender & sexuality have been evolving rapidly, esp. among generations Y and Z.
Personally, I'm inclined to think that Memphis might be the top choice of the Big 12, because they are within driving distance and that the Big 12 would add at least one MWC team, probably Colorado State.
I'm from the midwest myself, originally, and just as east coast people have a preference to play east coast schools, midwesterners tend to prefer watching games vs. midwestern opponents.
If I had attended Baylor or Kansas - - and if those were among the remaining Big 12 schools, I'd probably rather see the conference add Colorado State, Houston, and Memphis (relatively close by, not too different culturally) than to add an east coast school, and Memphis would only get in because West Virginia needs a regional rival. I might even prefer to see Tulane or Rice added because of their geographic proximity, than to add an east coast school, but would probably be persuaded to add Cincy as a 4th school if that would be necessary in order to preserve the status of the Big 12 as a power conference, and to help keep West Virginia in the conference.
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But replacing only the 4 displaced teams would probably be a bad idea.
They would be better off, and would have a better chance of preserving preserve their power conference status if they were to expand to 12 or 14 teams.
So I think it's more likely they would re-expand to 12, so that the name "Big 12" would make sense again.
In that case, UCF and USF might be the 11th and 12th schools, as I see it. I could also seeing the 11th and 12th schools as being UCF and SDSU, because it would give ESPN a conference that spans the 4 time zones.
East: WVU, Iowa State,^ Memphis, Cincy, UCF, & USF
West: Kansas,^ K State,^ Baylor, Houston, TCU (or Texas Tech), & Colorado State
or
East: WVU, Iowa State,^ Memphis, Cincy, Houston,* & UCF
West: Kansas,^ K State,^ Baylor,* TCU (or Texas Tech), UCSD, & Colorado State
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*Baylor and Houston would have a cross-division game every year.
^Iowa State would play a cross-division game with Kansas or K State every year.
(This post was last modified: 06-02-2020 02:06 AM by jedclampett.)
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