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Ultimate SEC expansion survey
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Claw Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
You never expand for basketball. That lesson should be well learned by now.
05-19-2020 09:18 PM
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schmolik Online
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Post: #22
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-19-2020 09:18 PM)Claw Wrote:  You never expand for basketball. That lesson should be well learned by now.

The Big East says hi. The AAC also invited Wichita State. The A-10 also invited Butler (who left for the Big East) and Georgie Mason. The MWC would be a lot better right now if it had gotten Gonzaga.

Is this board just anti-basketball? I hope to be around this board during an actual NCAA Tournament to see what it's like. I take it they'll be more talk about spring practice.
05-19-2020 09:48 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-19-2020 07:10 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If any one is on other SEC message boards, fb groups etc. feel free to share the link. The more results the better.

When GTS did this with the SBC/C-USA there were over 800 responses. For a statistician, that’s awesome.

I look forward to sharing the data you all helped provide once we have a big enough data set.

Interesting that there hasn’t been a Missouri or Vanderbilt fan yet.

As perhaps the lone Vanderbilt fan on this forum, I just posted.
05-19-2020 09:52 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
Why P5 schools only? I would vote for UCF, Cincinnati, ECU, and the likes.
05-20-2020 02:46 AM
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Carolina_Low_Country Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
If the SEC needs to go to 16 it’s either:
WEST
Oklahoma and Texas
I think this is very possible but OU may say we need OSU. In that case does the SEC go with Texas and West Virginia? Or do they go to 18 with UT, WVU, OU, and OSU.
or
EAST (Which has a lot of opportunities)
North Carolina and Virginia
North Carolina and Duke
North Carolina and NC State
NC State and Virginia Tech
NC State and West Virginia
Virginia Tech and West Virginia
West Virginia and ECU
Problem is I don’t see UNC leaving behind Duke, NC State, and Virginia. It would have to be a four team package and UVA would want to bring VT.
UNC may be ok with 18 teams with UNC, Duke, NCST, and Texas or UNC, Duke, WVU, and Texas or maybe UNC, Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. I am not sure how loyal UNC is to NC State. I do think UNC would like some connection to Texas though. But does the SEC want two prima donnas in their conference with Texas and UNC?
I think the best case would be go after WVU, NCSU, and/or VT. Pitch the A&M angle to allow them to separate from their flagship school of Virginia and North Carolina. WVU would just be your fall back. If they had to go east to get into NC/VA/DC and the ACC schools said no thanks than their only option would be ECU and WVU.
(This post was last modified: 05-20-2020 04:21 AM by Carolina_Low_Country.)
05-20-2020 04:15 AM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-19-2020 01:06 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(05-19-2020 11:35 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  THE best get for the SEC is UNC and UVA

But that’s not super realistic

The best REALISTIC get for the SEC is OU and KU

-Strips the B12 of its top blue blood FB and BB teams
-Adds another AAU school
-Adds much needed MBB power to SEC line up
-Adds a population boost the size of Massachusetts to footprint
-Solidifies control of DFW and KC markets
-No massive egos or undesirable political tagalongs

All that said, I don’t see expansion beyond 14 as especially likely for anyone

I think 16 is a good place to work towards. My only issue with 14 is that it's always been a bit clunky whereas 16 gives you a little more flexibility with how you work the schedule because everything is divisible by 4.

Oklahoma and Kansas work for me.

I would say it's realistic though because unless ESPN or another network is willing to dump a ton of extra money into the Big 12, Oklahoma especially is going to want out even though they'd probably rather keep the Big 12 together.

The assumption of 16 being better than 14 or 18 may be true if you like symmetry and assume the conference sticks with a 2-division format.

But if the rules get changed so that a conference can do whatever they want to determine which 2 teams go to the CCG, then that opens up all kinds of possibilities.

If the SEC goes with a divisionless format, then 14 might be better than 16, with the 2 best teams in the standings meeting in the CCG.

If they expand to 16 or 18, maybe 3 divisions might be the best format, with the 2 best division winners meeting in the CCG
05-20-2020 04:17 AM
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schmolik Online
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Post: #27
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-20-2020 04:15 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  If the SEC needs to go to 16 it’s either:
WEST
Oklahoma and Texas
I think this is very possible but OU may say we need OSU. In that case does the SEC go with Texas and West Virginia? Or do they go to 18 with UT, WVU, OU, and OSU.
or
EAST (Which has a lot of opportunities)
North Carolina and Virginia
North Carolina and Duke
North Carolina and NC State
NC State and Virginia Tech
NC State and West Virginia
Virginia Tech and West Virginia
West Virginia and ECU
Problem is I don’t see UNC leaving behind Duke, NC State, and Virginia. It would have to be a four team package and UVA would want to bring VT.
UNC may be ok with 18 teams with UNC, Duke, NCST, and Texas or UNC, Duke, WVU, and Texas or maybe UNC, Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. I am not sure how loyal UNC is to NC State. I do think UNC would like some connection to Texas though. But does the SEC want two prima donnas in their conference with Texas and UNC?
I think the best case would be go after WVU, NCSU, and/or VT. Pitch the A&M angle to allow them to separate from their flagship school of Virginia and North Carolina. WVU would just be your fall back. If they had to go east to get into NC/VA/DC and the ACC schools said no thanks than their only option would be ECU and WVU.

My assumption is the ACC's GOR will make them off limits until 2037. I'd also believe UNC and UVa would prefer the Big Ten although a lot could change between now and then (Carolina was linked to the B1G in part because former Big Ten commissioner was a UNC alum and he's no longer commish). Certainly if North Carolina had to choose between the Big Ten and SEC they will take the better financial offer (although I'd say a tie they'd go to the Big Ten since I'm biased). Another thought is if you believe that the trend that population will continue to trend southward the Big Ten will have more motivation to add North Carolina and Virginia and push south than the SEC will to add them and push North. Sure the SEC would like to reach the Northeast but who's the prize up there? Penn State will likely never leave the Big Ten for the SEC. Does the SEC really want Pitt or Syracuse or Boston College? Maybe the SEC doesn't want UNC but the Big Ten does. Or UNC is the Texas of the ACC and feels at home and doesn't want to leave, Virginia feels the same way. and the SEC wants to go up north and invites NC State and Virginia Tech instead and both accept (similar to A&M leaving the Big 12). Forget the obvious financial reasons, it would be NC State's chance to get out of Chapel Hill's shadow both in football but in men's basketball as well. It's 16 years from now but it's certainly plausible. Is the ACC really hurt that much by losing NCSt/VaT? Maybe by then UConn and Temple have decent football teams. Of course the question is how motivated will the SEC be to go for NC State/Va. Tech in 2037? If I had to guess, not much, especially if they can get Oklahoma and/or Texas this decade.
(This post was last modified: 05-20-2020 07:01 AM by schmolik.)
05-20-2020 06:44 AM
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Gamecock Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-20-2020 04:15 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  If the SEC needs to go to 16 it’s either:
WEST
Oklahoma and Texas
I think this is very possible but OU may say we need OSU. In that case does the SEC go with Texas and West Virginia? Or do they go to 18 with UT, WVU, OU, and OSU.
or
EAST (Which has a lot of opportunities)
North Carolina and Virginia
North Carolina and Duke
North Carolina and NC State
NC State and Virginia Tech
NC State and West Virginia
Virginia Tech and West Virginia
West Virginia and ECU
Problem is I don’t see UNC leaving behind Duke, NC State, and Virginia. It would have to be a four team package and UVA would want to bring VT.
UNC may be ok with 18 teams with UNC, Duke, NCST, and Texas or UNC, Duke, WVU, and Texas or maybe UNC, Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. I am not sure how loyal UNC is to NC State. I do think UNC would like some connection to Texas though. But does the SEC want two prima donnas in their conference with Texas and UNC?
I think the best case would be go after WVU, NCSU, and/or VT. Pitch the A&M angle to allow them to separate from their flagship school of Virginia and North Carolina. WVU would just be your fall back. If they had to go east to get into NC/VA/DC and the ACC schools said no thanks than their only option would be ECU and WVU.

Personally if I had to pick two I would agree with you and go after WVU and VT
05-20-2020 06:55 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-19-2020 10:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-19-2020 10:16 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The link below is a google survey I created on SEC expansion. Please feel free to complete it and if you want to share it on other message boards that get a lot of SEC fan traffic I’d appreciate it.

I’m hoping this will yield some great data on fan preference

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQ...sp=sf_link

I wouldn't want to add anyone. But if you do add, it depends on how many you add. The key would be to keep the 10 team core together as much as possible. If you add 4, you would want them from the west. If you add 10, you would want them from the east.

There is not a school to the East that adds enough value to increase SEC payments as of the new contract period. The expansion would have to be to the West and 4 would be the most likely if the primary two insisted upon it.

And to 10th, North Carolina and Virginia Tech would be nice market additions, with little football content value, and would reduce current payouts, not enhance them. It would have worked in 2010 with the market footprint payout model, but no longer works in the new paradigm.
05-20-2020 08:09 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-19-2020 07:10 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  If the SEC must expand, please look west. There are lots of fine candidates in Texas and the midlands.

Be kind to the ACC.

The SEC has not raided the ACC because ESPN won't pay for it. Kind has nothing to do with it. I don't envision ACC schools in the SEC unless the Big 10 raids the ACC again from a rival network. In that case ESPN will pay SEC pro rata to the ACC product it most wants to keep and will place them in the SEC.

Until that time comes ESPN will use the SEC to more fully acquire the product from the Big 12 that it doesn't want to share with FOX.

For the most part this is all anyone needs to know about realignment. Only schools from other conferences that add to your conference's bottom line will be considered, and then they will only be considered if the network that pays you doesn't already own them more cheaply and wants either more complete rights holdings for them, or the product belongs to another network. We've long since passed the days where conferences simply picked peers. The only caveat to that is that conferences still set parameters for inclusion so the networks do their thing within those parameters. Therefore ESPN will never place an ACC school in the SEC unless it is to safeguard their access to them since the SEC is much safer.
(This post was last modified: 05-20-2020 08:24 AM by JRsec.)
05-20-2020 08:18 AM
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Bobcat2013 Online
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Post: #31
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-19-2020 02:00 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(05-19-2020 11:35 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  THE best get for the SEC is UNC and UVA

But that’s not super realistic

The best REALISTIC get for the SEC is OU and KU

-Strips the B12 of its top blue blood FB and BB teams
-Adds another AAU school
-Adds much needed MBB power to SEC line up
-Adds a population boost the size of Massachusetts to footprint
-Solidifies control of DFW and KC markets
-No massive egos or undesirable political tagalongs

All that said, I don’t see expansion beyond 14 as especially likely for anyone

Having a future wife and in-laws that are all Hog fans with season tickets for FB and BB and living here in Fayetteville, I wouldn't mind seeing Kansas coming to town for basketball. The UK games are raucous...it's actually a little surprising to me, but I actually think Arkansas fans are more rabid about basketball than football, even when the FB team is good.

Then UT or OU for football would be swell. I don't know why Arkansas has such little history with OU and hasn't played OSU in 40 years.

I went to the TXST vs Arkansas basketball game last year and was very suprised at the atmosphere and history of arkansas program. I had no idea they had a natty! If only we made our free throws 03-banghead
05-20-2020 08:19 AM
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Post: #32
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
A question I have is what does it mean to have a school add to the value of the conference (SEC or other). I can look at the numbers provided and see that a school is above or below the conference median. That being said, how can we know for if a school would bring in that same amount if in the SEC? Would Virginia Tech bring more to the bottom line as an SEC school rather than an ACC school? Would Texas bring as much to the bottom line in the SEC without the LHN? Do those potential numbers matter?
05-20-2020 08:34 AM
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CitrusUCF Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
Kick out Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Back to 12 so teams rotate through more often. Addition by subtraction.
05-20-2020 09:11 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-20-2020 08:34 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  A question I have is what does it mean to have a school add to the value of the conference (SEC or other). I can look at the numbers provided and see that a school is above or below the conference median. That being said, how can we know for if a school would bring in that same amount if in the SEC? Would Virginia Tech bring more to the bottom line as an SEC school rather than an ACC school? Would Texas bring as much to the bottom line in the SEC without the LHN? Do those potential numbers matter?

Well the best answer I can give you is this. Whenever a conference and a prospect get hot for one another it is usually the Network, or now an outside firm to avoid tortuous interference suits, that does an in depth evaluation of how much revenue that the school and conference could anticipate by the move.

A lot of the that information that is used is available to us by annual reports which I list here annually. Generally speaking a school which is below a conferences average for attendance (a sign of alumni support and donation since most schools require donations for tickets) and Gross Total Revenue (a more accurate picture of donations and not really about media money) give you a good idea if the applying school adds to the bottom line. The WSJ numbers give you an idea of what the school is worth to its surrounding area in terms of business generated which is also a strong indication of support and interest..

When the average SEC school generates over 700,000,000 in ancillary business and Virginia Tech generates less than 250 million in ancillary business and the Va Tech averages 10 thousand less in attendance and their Gross Total Revenue isn't top 25 then they aren't going to add to the bottom line.

In 2010 cable subscription pay models were based on the potential number of subscribers within a state and the schools were paid accordingly. Virginia a state of 9 million was appealing and N.C. State or UNC in a state of 11 million was as well.

Innovation in technology via streaming, and smart TV's from which information about viewing habits is actually quantifiable permit a more accurate picture of who watches. Because of that a state like Alabama of 5 million plus might actually have 4 million who watch college football and a state like Virginia with 9 million might only have 3 million who watch college football and of those even less that watch Virginia Tech. Therefore in this new era the actual number of viewers is what attracts advertising's higher rates, not population.

This is why the Big 10 and SEC have now outpaced the ACC and PAC where actual viewing numbers are paltry.

It is also why so much interest is shown in the Big 12 for expansion targets. The Big 12 actually has roughly the same % of homes viewing as the Big 10, it's just that they have much fewer homes. But with Texas and Oklahoma you have two schools who draw strong national numbers due to a spread of alumni but more importantly brand identification with the sport of college football. That's something that Virginia Tech, N.C. State, North Carolina and Louisville don't have, and Georgia Tech hasn't had in the modern TV era. Florida State has it, but their numbers in all other areas are just on par with the SEC therefore it safe to assume they would be about break even in the SEC.

Clemson is strong recently, but historically their numbers probably don't put them on par, but they are growing a national brand so might be worth the risk. Remember against week in and week out competition in the SEC they might not be as viable. It only takes 2 losses a year to diminish where they are now.

When you consider all of this there are 3 schools that add to the SEC's bottom line and the Big 10's bottom line:
1. Texas
2. Notre Dame
3. Oklahoma

All three are top 12 revenue producers (UT #1, OU #7, ND #12), all three average more than 74,000 in attendance, Texas right at 100k, OU at 85k, and ND at around 75K, and all three draw extremely well nationally. There is no area of measurement where these programs fail to add.

I strongly suspect they would already be in the SEC or Big 10 where they would exponentially increase their revenue and that of the conference were it not for wanting to remain relevant competitively. With the added money I believe they would, but face it the likelihood that OU, UT or ND would suffer more 2 loss seasons in the SEC or Big 10 is fairly high. I think they fear a loss of national prominence with such moves.

The thing is however that is where the money is going to be at a time when enhanced revenue streams are going to be tough to find. The eventual need to increase revenue will bring about these moves. When they do there is no mutual interest between N.D. and the SEC, so the fight will be over Texas and Oklahoma and it will be between the Big 10 and SEC. The Big 10 has the academic advantage and that's the angle they sell, and the SEC has the geographic, recruiting, and competition advantage and that is the angle we sell.

Time, technology, and opportunity to catch up have passed the PAC and the ACC by. If they get into the Big 10 or SEC it will be at network expense in an effort to protect a product (likely basketball) reach for a niche time of the year (think Winter/Spring).

Edit: I missed your question on the LHN. I would assume that the SEC would benefit subscription wise from rolling the ESPN shared LHN into the ESPN shared SECN. T3 is so little of the total revenue and the SEC's big new contract figures are based on actual viewers for T1 and T2 content that I doubt the LHN would be a significant negative factor for either the SEC or Texas. It would be a benefit for ESPN which I'm sure would share the buyout of the LHN with the SEC where it would be handled by a 1 million reduction per school in annual payouts which will be going up massively by 2024 (sooner if ESPN buys out the CBS contract) and that way the LHN which expires in 2031 could be bought out over 4 years time without anyone missing the reduced money which would more than be made up for long term by UT's inclusion.
(This post was last modified: 05-20-2020 09:42 AM by JRsec.)
05-20-2020 09:15 AM
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10thMountain Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-20-2020 08:09 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-19-2020 10:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-19-2020 10:16 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The link below is a google survey I created on SEC expansion. Please feel free to complete it and if you want to share it on other message boards that get a lot of SEC fan traffic I’d appreciate it.

I’m hoping this will yield some great data on fan preference

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQ...sp=sf_link

I wouldn't want to add anyone. But if you do add, it depends on how many you add. The key would be to keep the 10 team core together as much as possible. If you add 4, you would want them from the west. If you add 10, you would want them from the east.

There is not a school to the East that adds enough value to increase SEC payments as of the new contract period. The expansion would have to be to the West and 4 would be the most likely if the primary two insisted upon it.

And to 10th, North Carolina and Virginia Tech would be nice market additions, with little football content value, and would reduce current payouts, not enhance them. It would have worked in 2010 with the market footprint payout model, but no longer works in the new paradigm.


Hey trust me, I get your and the Auburn position where you don’t want any eastern schools considered and want to take half the Big 12 in order to get Auburn back into an eastern division consisting mostly of the original SEC teams.

But if UNC, Duke, UVA and FSU all came to us and asked in they’d be in today.
05-20-2020 09:53 AM
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Post: #36
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
I think that both the SEC and Big Ten are going to place their focus on attaining Oklahoma.

if you get Oklahoma then you can try to pair them with Texas. If Texas won’t budge, then you take Kansas (Big Ten) or Kansas/Okla St (SEC).

If the Big Ten wins the Oklahoma sweepstakes but loses out on Texas the SEC could jump in and offer the Texas/TTU combo.

If the the SEC lands Oklahoma but can’t get Texas they still have a decent shot at going back and getting them in the future. The Big Ten is in a bit of a pickle though.
05-20-2020 09:55 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-20-2020 09:53 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  
(05-20-2020 08:09 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-19-2020 10:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-19-2020 10:16 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The link below is a google survey I created on SEC expansion. Please feel free to complete it and if you want to share it on other message boards that get a lot of SEC fan traffic I’d appreciate it.

I’m hoping this will yield some great data on fan preference

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQ...sp=sf_link

I wouldn't want to add anyone. But if you do add, it depends on how many you add. The key would be to keep the 10 team core together as much as possible. If you add 4, you would want them from the west. If you add 10, you would want them from the east.

There is not a school to the East that adds enough value to increase SEC payments as of the new contract period. The expansion would have to be to the West and 4 would be the most likely if the primary two insisted upon it.

And to 10th, North Carolina and Virginia Tech would be nice market additions, with little football content value, and would reduce current payouts, not enhance them. It would have worked in 2010 with the market footprint payout model, but no longer works in the new paradigm.


Hey trust me, I get your and the Auburn position where you don’t want any eastern schools considered and want to take half the Big 12 in order to get Auburn back into an eastern division consisting mostly of the original SEC teams.

But if UNC, Duke, UVA and FSU all came to us and asked in they’d be in today.

You couldn't be more wrong. Do the damn math. This isn't 2010 and we aren't paid by population but actual viewers. Those days have passed. The numbers are there for you to look at but it doesn't suit your position on Texas. And we don't have to take half of the Big 12, just 1/3rd of it possibly. But what we would jump on in a heart beat is 20% of it.

In 2010 I wanted Clemson and Florida State, period. I felt that for the future's sake having brand power, and owning the hammer on ad rates in a state would be more important that a bunch of schools representing states not known for football. The addition of A&M was clearly the superior addition because it has brand and carried entry to a large market, but most importantly a large market of which a high % followed the Aggies. So when the transition was made to a pay model where ad revenue was concentrated on actual viewers the Clemson and Florida State pairing would have added some value to the SEC for branding, but only Florida State would have added enough eyeballs and leverage to have paid their way in. Duke, North Carolina and Virginia are terrific schools, but they don't add to the SEC's bottom line and have limited reach in football beyond their own states where viewer numbers for that sport are not stellar.

Texas and Oklahoma add value and lots of it. And when our payouts minimally will reach 67 million with the next contract (more likely 70) nobody in any conference other than the Big 10 can add to the revenue figures of the SEC other than Texas and Oklahoma. That's the only issue that counts, "Does it profit?"
(This post was last modified: 05-20-2020 10:35 AM by JRsec.)
05-20-2020 10:17 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-20-2020 02:46 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Why P5 schools only? I would vote for UCF, Cincinnati, ECU, and the likes.

They lack the necessities.
05-20-2020 10:24 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-20-2020 09:15 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-20-2020 08:34 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  A question I have is what does it mean to have a school add to the value of the conference (SEC or other). I can look at the numbers provided and see that a school is above or below the conference median. That being said, how can we know for if a school would bring in that same amount if in the SEC? Would Virginia Tech bring more to the bottom line as an SEC school rather than an ACC school? Would Texas bring as much to the bottom line in the SEC without the LHN? Do those potential numbers matter?

Well the best answer I can give you is this. Whenever a conference and a prospect get hot for one another it is usually the Network, or now an outside firm to avoid tortuous interference suits, that does an in depth evaluation of how much revenue that the school and conference could anticipate by the move.

A lot of the that information that is used is available to us by annual reports which I list here annually. Generally speaking a school which is below a conferences average for attendance (a sign of alumni support and donation since most schools require donations for tickets) and Gross Total Revenue (a more accurate picture of donations and not really about media money) give you a good idea if the applying school adds to the bottom line. The WSJ numbers give you an idea of what the school is worth to its surrounding area in terms of business generated which is also a strong indication of support and interest..

When the average SEC school generates over 700,000,000 in ancillary business and Virginia Tech generates less than 250 million in ancillary business and the Va Tech averages 10 thousand less in attendance and their Gross Total Revenue isn't top 25 then they aren't going to add to the bottom line.

In 2010 cable subscription pay models were based on the potential number of subscribers within a state and the schools were paid accordingly. Virginia a state of 9 million was appealing and N.C. State or UNC in a state of 11 million was as well.

Innovation in technology via streaming, and smart TV's from which information about viewing habits is actually quantifiable permit a more accurate picture of who watches. Because of that a state like Alabama of 5 million plus might actually have 4 million who watch college football and a state like Virginia with 9 million might only have 3 million who watch college football and of those even less that watch Virginia Tech. Therefore in this new era the actual number of viewers is what attracts advertising's higher rates, not population.

This is why the Big 10 and SEC have now outpaced the ACC and PAC where actual viewing numbers are paltry.

It is also why so much interest is shown in the Big 12 for expansion targets. The Big 12 actually has roughly the same % of homes viewing as the Big 10, it's just that they have much fewer homes. But with Texas and Oklahoma you have two schools who draw strong national numbers due to a spread of alumni but more importantly brand identification with the sport of college football. That's something that Virginia Tech, N.C. State, North Carolina and Louisville don't have, and Georgia Tech hasn't had in the modern TV era. Florida State has it, but their numbers in all other areas are just on par with the SEC therefore it safe to assume they would be about break even in the SEC.

Clemson is strong recently, but historically their numbers probably don't put them on par, but they are growing a national brand so might be worth the risk. Remember against week in and week out competition in the SEC they might not be as viable. It only takes 2 losses a year to diminish where they are now.

When you consider all of this there are 3 schools that add to the SEC's bottom line and the Big 10's bottom line:
1. Texas
2. Notre Dame
3. Oklahoma

All three are top 12 revenue producers (UT #1, OU #7, ND #12), all three average more than 74,000 in attendance, Texas right at 100k, OU at 85k, and ND at around 75K, and all three draw extremely well nationally. There is no area of measurement where these programs fail to add.

I strongly suspect they would already be in the SEC or Big 10 where they would exponentially increase their revenue and that of the conference were it not for wanting to remain relevant competitively. With the added money I believe they would, but face it the likelihood that OU, UT or ND would suffer more 2 loss seasons in the SEC or Big 10 is fairly high. I think they fear a loss of national prominence with such moves.

The thing is however that is where the money is going to be at a time when enhanced revenue streams are going to be tough to find. The eventual need to increase revenue will bring about these moves. When they do there is no mutual interest between N.D. and the SEC, so the fight will be over Texas and Oklahoma and it will be between the Big 10 and SEC. The Big 10 has the academic advantage and that's the angle they sell, and the SEC has the geographic, recruiting, and competition advantage and that is the angle we sell.

Time, technology, and opportunity to catch up have passed the PAC and the ACC by. If they get into the Big 10 or SEC it will be at network expense in an effort to protect a product (likely basketball) reach for a niche time of the year (think Winter/Spring).

Edit: I missed your question on the LHN. I would assume that the SEC would benefit subscription wise from rolling the ESPN shared LHN into the ESPN shared SECN. T3 is so little of the total revenue and the SEC's big new contract figures are based on actual viewers for T1 and T2 content that I doubt the LHN would be a significant negative factor for either the SEC or Texas. It would be a benefit for ESPN which I'm sure would share the buyout of the LHN with the SEC where it would be handled by a 1 million reduction per school in annual payouts which will be going up massively by 2024 (sooner if ESPN buys out the CBS contract) and that way the LHN which expires in 2031 could be bought out over 4 years time without anyone missing the reduced money which would more than be made up for long term by UT's inclusion.

Thank you, that’s probably as clear of an answer as possible
05-20-2020 10:37 AM
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Post: #40
RE: Ultimate SEC expansion survey
(05-20-2020 10:24 AM)westwolf Wrote:  
(05-20-2020 02:46 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Why P5 schools only? I would vote for UCF, Cincinnati, ECU, and the likes.

They lack the necessities.

That explains everything. The specific deficiencies you enumerate make it clear that they lack the necessities, whatever the hell that means.
05-20-2020 11:46 AM
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