According to the Auburn president. There's a youtube greeting out there. He says there will be students on campus. There will be fraternities and sororities. There will be 400-500 clubs. There will be pizza and popsicles with the President. And there will be football.

Yay!!!

#WarEagle

Heads are gonna roll

This is not going to end well.

They had no choice, stu. What ELSE is there to do in Auburn?

Alabama, SMH

Meanwhile, Alabama is adding new cases at a per capita rate higher than California...

Lee County has a death rate almost 3 times that of California. A case rate almost double that of California. Brilliant move.

(05-13-2020 07:09 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  They had no choice, stu. What ELSE is there to do in Auburn?

Based on stats, catch the virus and die.

(05-13-2020 07:09 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  They had no choice, stu. What ELSE is there to do in Auburn?

We are getting some good data from OC and SF on who is contracting the virus. Turns out we never really fully sheltered in place. 50% of people still go out. They account for 97% of the contraction.

We now understand that testing, tracing, and much more radical level of shelter in place is required to have a result like South Korea or Taiwan, where the disease is successfully contained and spot outbreaks dealt with. We designated far too many people as essential, and this simply kept the disease at a half level.

It also appears this virus is like influenza A (common cold) and previous SARS in that immunity is only months (3 months average for the common cold, 8 months or so for SARS - which COVID19 is a type of). So opening up without ever having contained the disease will see the numbers spike.

I suspect the South is about the see a Louisiana or even a New York level spread with the opening up. That is why I say it wont end well.

And yes we are all fed up sheltering in place and want to get out and about. Fatigue has set in. This is all the more frustrating if our half ass shut down fails to to do more than just continue the misery for year or more we didn't need to suffer.

(05-13-2020 07:23 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(05-13-2020 07:09 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  They had no choice, stu. What ELSE is there to do in Auburn?

We are getting some good data from OC and SF on who is contracting the virus. Turns out we never really fully sheltered in place. 50% of people still go out. They account for 97% of the contraction.

there you go. The numbers probably higher than 50%.

(05-13-2020 06:51 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Yay!!!

#WarEagle

WDE.

(05-13-2020 07:20 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Meanwhile, Alabama is adding new cases at a per capita rate higher than California...

Lee County has a death rate almost 3 times that of California. A case rate almost double that of California. Brilliant move.

Not an excuse but Lee County is a really popular area in the state to retire, so there's a surprisingly large elderly population.

Are the hospitals overwhelmed there?

Alabama was one of the last states to shut down and their overall death rates are relatively low.

I am very happy to see this. It’s time to get back as close to normalcy as possible. The reality of the matter is that IF a vaccine can even be developed, it’s at a minimum 1-2 years away. The second undeniable fact is that we cannot shelter in place 1-2 years. Therefore it is inevitable that it will spread regardless of what we do over the next couple of months. The only thing that we realistically can do is really lock down the vulnerable population (primarily nursing homes) which also fortunately are mostly retired people.

Good for Auburn. I hope more schools follow. It’s time to get back to normal life and to stop cowering in fear over a strain that’s only marginally more lethal than the normal flu.

(05-13-2020 08:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  Alabama was one of the last states to shut down and their overall death rates are relatively low.

It's not as if a low death rate at any point in time is a leading indicator that it's safe. It's a lagging indicator that either the epidemic came to a state later, or that the state is juking the stats by not testing all cases to avoid the numbers looking bad.

The point of closing down to get the death rate down is to take advantage of that time to ramp up the testing and tracking programs. Since the Federal government has simply refused to do that, it's up to the states, and it's not likely that many if any of the states that are not in a multi-state compact are going to have effective programs to do that up and running.

It seems awfully likely that most of the Southeast is going to be in the middle of a raging epidemic by the time August rolls around, unless things are locked down again.

The only good news I have heard from the electron microscope crowd about covid19 is the research from South Korea that people who were positive, then recovered, then tested positive again were not in fact infectious when they tested positive the second time, but rather the test was picking up broken fragments of viral RNA from damaged lung tissue.

(05-13-2020 08:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  Alabama was one of the last states to shut down and their overall death rates are relatively low.

Still higher than California.

(05-13-2020 08:03 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Are the hospitals overwhelmed there?

Alabama has a very poor reporting dashboard - for example, Arizona gives ICU beds % (running at 80% full)

No stats from Alabama like that.

(05-13-2020 08:30 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(05-13-2020 08:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  Alabama was one of the last states to shut down and their overall death rates are relatively low.

It's not as if a low death rate at any point in time is a leading indicator that it's safe. It's a lagging indicator that either the epidemic came to a state later, or that the state is juking the stats by not testing all cases to avoid the numbers looking bad.

The point of closing down to get the death rate down is to take advantage of that time to ramp up the testing and tracking programs. Since the Federal government has simply refused to do that, it's up to the states, and it's not likely that many if any of the states that are not in a multi-state compact are going to have effective programs to do that up and running.

It seems awfully likely that most of the Southeast is going to be in the middle of a raging epidemic by the time August rolls around, unless things are locked down again.

The only good news I have heard from the electron microscope crowd about covid19 is the research from South Korea that people who were positive, then recovered, then tested positive again were not in fact infectious when they tested positive the second time, but rather the test was picking up broken fragments of viral RNA from damaged lung tissue.

Georgia's rate keeps going down even though they are open. Now "open" is not anywhere close to normal.

I don't think football makes sense, at least not with fans in the stands.