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Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 02:37 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  
(04-14-2020 01:26 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  The 100,000 person claim was based off the contagion rate of the virus + cases that had arisen without known contact to previous cases. So if someone in Cleveland tested positive for it, and then someone in Toledo tested positive for it, and they have no known connection between the cases, they begin to estimate how many people have it based on where people are, what the contagion factors are, etc etc. It's an entire field of study called epidiomology. And, like anything else, it's not perfect. But it's not baseless, either. We don't have nearly enough tests to even comprehend how widespread the virus is. It's entirely possible that Acton was completely right when she said that.

If a Pilot tells passengers to prepare for severe turbulence, and instead there are only moderate disruptions, do you also conclude that you know how to fly the plane better than the Pilot?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiUyGfDJ76g

Wow.

You go on believing what you want.
Yeah why trust people who spend their careers working in this department, and who have been open and transparent about the data leading them to various conclusions, when you can instead listen to an angry message board poster keep screaming about fake news to a pile of dead bodies.

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(This post was last modified: 04-14-2020 02:44 PM by Cataclysmo.)
04-14-2020 02:44 PM
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Yawny Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 12:50 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  You just keep believing everything you see on TV and let the government take care of you, clueless Bernie bro.

Gotta say, assuming I'm a "Bernie Bro" because I think that the scientists and doctors trying to handle this whole problem know more about this than you, some random guy on a forum, gave me a much-needed laugh this afternoon.
 
04-14-2020 03:08 PM
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BearcatsUC Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 07:36 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  It was so predictable how this all played out.

1. Public health officials warn that thousands will die if we don't lockdown.
2. We lock down.
3. Thousands die, but it's not as bad as they initially predicted.
4.?????????
5. Somehow this is proof that they were wrong.

The point of the lockdown was, quite literally, to make sure as few people died as possible. Public health officials were right so that morons on message boards could continue being so hilariously wrong.

But I'm sure if hundreds of thousands were dead instead, those same people would say "see! Social distancing doesn't work! I am very smart and a very serious thinker".

Epidimological models aren't perfect. We're limited by the information we have available at the time and that information changes every day. Even if Public Health officials didn't get the exact numbers correct, they were right about the most important issue:

1. A global pandemic was at our doorstep
2. Thousands could die
3. Social distancing measures were the only avenue toward ensuring that as few of those people died as possible.

And now, despite upwards of 50-60 thousand Americans dying before this is all over, these idiots that are playing 3D chess with themselves are declaring both victory, and that every doctor and health care expert in the country is part of some rediculous conspiracy to keep the economy closed.

Doctors are being forced to fabricate PPE out of their own clothing. Ventilators are being manufactured by automobile giants. Mass graves are being dug in New York. One of the most powerful men in the world was in the ICU with the virus. Multiple professional athletes contracted it. Karl Anthony Towns lost his mother. Dammit we lost John Prine. We don't even have close to the amount of testing to confirm the real number of people with the virus. And yet, despite it all, some people still have the audacity to tell us that it was all just a big ole' nothingburger. Unbelievable.


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04-14-2020 03:40 PM
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BearcatsUC Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-13-2020 02:14 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  
(04-13-2020 02:04 PM)coachpipe Wrote:  How many people have it but havent been tested because of lack of resources or the "wrong" symptoms are showing up and they wont test them?
How many people have it but arent showing any symptoms and dont know they have it like Gobert?

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it still make a sound?

No doubt on the underestimation of cases. Who knows how many or when it even began? The bigger problem is knowing when and how to oil the gears and begin revving the motor of society again.

Who is gonna have big enough cajones to pull the switch?

If you want a taste of what the economy will be like without a shutdown, go to a slaughterhouse. They are shutting down on their own because their workers *are* getting sick. I spent today stocking up on meat.

I’m really sick about only hearing about the economic cost of shutting down. There are serious economic consequences of not shutting down.
 
04-14-2020 03:47 PM
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BearcatsUC Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 11:27 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(04-14-2020 11:11 AM)BearcatsUC Wrote:  
(04-13-2020 09:23 AM)ladeda Wrote:  5 days ago, Dr Acton said the peak would be 1600 cases per day in Ohio. So far, the daily peak was 427 cases and that was over a week ago. New cases have been on a slight decline the past 9 days-- yet they are telling us that new cases will quadruple by the end of April. wth? There is nothing in the data that suggests cases will quadruple, but hey-- models.

All I know is the so called experts really don't have much expertise. So will we have a season? I think we will have a start to the season. My fear is that if there is a seasonal outbreak in say November-- that they could panic and do the forced shutdown thing all over again.


1-Apr 348
2-Apr 355
3-Apr 410
4-Apr 427
5-Apr 304
6-Apr 407
7-Apr 332
8-Apr 366
9-Apr 364
10-Apr 351
11-Apr 387
12-Apr 354

Ohio has done a great job. Michigan is a hot spot and is too close for comfort. Indiana has problems as well.

Detroit's airport had multiple direct flights to China and Europe including Beijing and Shanghai.

40,000 have travelled directly from China to US since the travel ban.
 
04-14-2020 03:51 PM
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Bearcatbdub Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 03:47 PM)BearcatsUC Wrote:  
(04-13-2020 02:14 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  
(04-13-2020 02:04 PM)coachpipe Wrote:  How many people have it but havent been tested because of lack of resources or the "wrong" symptoms are showing up and they wont test them?
How many people have it but arent showing any symptoms and dont know they have it like Gobert?

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it still make a sound?

No doubt on the underestimation of cases. Who knows how many or when it even began? The bigger problem is knowing when and how to oil the gears and begin revving the motor of society again.

Who is gonna have big enough cajones to pull the switch?

If you want a taste of what the economy will be like without a shutdown, go to a slaughterhouse. They are shutting down on their own because their workers *are* getting sick. I spent today stocking up on meat.

I’m really sick about only hearing about the economic cost of shutting down. There are serious economic consequences of not shutting down.

Every slaughterhouse? Or just the one you went to? So you are saying there will now be a shortage of meat because in every slaughterhouse on the planet people are becoming sick with Covid and shutting down?

I am sure there would have been some economic impact if we had not taken these drastic measures. I doubt it would have been anything near what we are going to face for the next however many months to years.

I am sure we have saved some lives by shutting down and social distancing. Nobody knows how many for sure- but it’s probably somewhere between 40,000 and 1.9 million people if you reference the models.

Facts remain it will have to open up sooner or later. This is simply not sustainable. Other problems besides the economy are going to pop up. For one, our mostly empty hospitals will be inundated with the results of holding off on surgeries and diagnostics for several months. Eating chips and laying around on the couch ain’t exactly good for them old arteries... where are all those heart attack patients, anyways?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes...e.amp.html

Point being- we got a lot of people just absolutely dead certain that this lockdown was the way to go. We got some other people saying- hey wait a minute? Does this really make sense? I am not saying that I know the other side of the coin better than anyone else. But stop being so arrogant as to think you have already lived through this before and you know what the outcome will be. Because you really have no ******* clue.
 
04-14-2020 04:59 PM
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Yawny Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 04:59 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  
(04-14-2020 03:47 PM)BearcatsUC Wrote:  
(04-13-2020 02:14 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  
(04-13-2020 02:04 PM)coachpipe Wrote:  How many people have it but havent been tested because of lack of resources or the "wrong" symptoms are showing up and they wont test them?
How many people have it but arent showing any symptoms and dont know they have it like Gobert?

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it still make a sound?

No doubt on the underestimation of cases. Who knows how many or when it even began? The bigger problem is knowing when and how to oil the gears and begin revving the motor of society again.

Who is gonna have big enough cajones to pull the switch?

If you want a taste of what the economy will be like without a shutdown, go to a slaughterhouse. They are shutting down on their own because their workers *are* getting sick. I spent today stocking up on meat.

I’m really sick about only hearing about the economic cost of shutting down. There are serious economic consequences of not shutting down.

Every slaughterhouse? Or just the one you went to? So you are saying there will now be a shortage of meat because in every slaughterhouse on the planet people are becoming sick with Covid and shutting down?

I am sure there would have been some economic impact if we had not taken these drastic measures. I doubt it would have been anything near what we are going to face for the next however many months to years.

I am sure we have saved some lives by shutting down and social distancing. Nobody knows how many for sure- but it’s probably somewhere between 40,000 and 1.9 million people if you reference the models.

Facts remain it will have to open up sooner or later. This is simply not sustainable. Other problems besides the economy are going to pop up. For one, our mostly empty hospitals will be inundated with the results of holding off on surgeries and diagnostics for several months. Eating chips and laying around on the couch ain’t exactly good for them old arteries... where are all those heart attack patients, anyways?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes...e.amp.html

Point being- we got a lot of people just absolutely dead certain that this lockdown was the way to go. We got some other people saying- hey wait a minute? Does this really make sense? I am not saying that I know the other side of the coin better than anyone else. But stop being so arrogant as to think you have already lived through this before and you know what the outcome will be. Because you really have no ******* clue.

I'm sorry but there's no way that you don't realize how sociopathic a line of logic that is.

"I agree we saved between 400k and 1.9m people but we can't be sure that's a good thing until we see what happens to the economy."
 
04-14-2020 05:54 PM
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Billy_Bearcat Offline
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RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
^^^
You realize the “economy” is how people feed and shelter themselves right? If we dropped 100 million people into poverty to save 2 million lives would it be worth it?
 
04-14-2020 06:48 PM
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Yawny Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 06:48 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  ^^^
You realize the “economy” is how people feed and shelter themselves right? If we dropped 100 million people into poverty to save 2 million lives would it be worth it?

You realize that this is a totally fallacious counterargument right? You can't just pull a high number out of thin air and say "checkmate".
 
04-14-2020 07:18 PM
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the_dude Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
I've seen statistics from European researchers that claim that the number of infected people is 10 to 15 times higher than what is being calculated, due to lack of available testing as well as asymptomatic infections. If true, that puts this illness and mortality rate in line with other flus/colds. Now, that being said, it also means it is HIGHLY contagious, as feared, more so than a normal flu/cold, which means the lockdown was the correct course of action, even if only out of an abundance of caution.

Either way, since we won't have a vaccine for a year at best, eventually through continued waves/peaks, we will get close to the same amount of people getting infected with a partial or full locked down for another 1-1.5 years. The peak has been lowered, now time to collect data, analyze, and look to slowly start re-opening in may if the data supports it. Comparing data from states/countries that did/didn't have lockdowns is crucial.

In an earlier post, I did mention "scare tactics" I want to clarify that I don't think it's a government nor medical conspiracy. I DO think that the media is outright lying as usual (both sides of the fence FOX & MSNBC/CNN) to drum up viewers. Some of the articles on both sides are a joke and are no more than op-ed pieces based on zero data.

No matter what we do, infections will still happen, but we will not be able to avoid that with or without a lockdown. Let's just keep washing hands, keeping distance, wear masks if you are in a vulnerable health situation...just be smart regardless of what comes next.
 
04-14-2020 07:30 PM
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Billy_Bearcat Offline
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RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 07:18 PM)Yawny Wrote:  
(04-14-2020 06:48 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  ^^^
You realize the “economy” is how people feed and shelter themselves right? If we dropped 100 million people into poverty to save 2 million lives would it be worth it?

You realize that this is a totally fallacious counterargument right? You can't just pull a high number out of thin air and say "checkmate".

Which number’s high? Even you don’t know. How many people filed for unemployment last week. That we do know. I posed a question. Tell me what number is acceptable. 10 million? That okay?
 
(This post was last modified: 04-14-2020 07:57 PM by Billy_Bearcat.)
04-14-2020 07:55 PM
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BearcatsUC Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
One plant closed. It supplies 5% of US pork production:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com...oses%3famp
 
04-14-2020 08:06 PM
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RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 08:06 PM)BearcatsUC Wrote:  One plant closed. It supplies 5% of US pork production:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com...oses%3famp

Not bacon!!! Now they’ve gone too far!
 
04-14-2020 08:11 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
It's not an either or thing. If 2 million people are dead there will be huge economic ramifications.
 
04-14-2020 08:28 PM
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Billy_Bearcat Offline
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RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 08:28 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  It's not an either or thing. If 2 million people are dead there will be huge economic ramifications.

Not necessarily. The little data we do have seems to point to the elderly being the overwhelming majority of the death count. But I do agree, the question is not a simple yes or no. I’m saying that it’s quite possible our remedy is worse than the disease.
 
04-14-2020 08:47 PM
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Bear Catlett Offline
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RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 02:44 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  
(04-14-2020 02:37 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  
(04-14-2020 01:26 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  The 100,000 person claim was based off the contagion rate of the virus + cases that had arisen without known contact to previous cases. So if someone in Cleveland tested positive for it, and then someone in Toledo tested positive for it, and they have no known connection between the cases, they begin to estimate how many people have it based on where people are, what the contagion factors are, etc etc. It's an entire field of study called epidiomology. And, like anything else, it's not perfect. But it's not baseless, either. We don't have nearly enough tests to even comprehend how widespread the virus is. It's entirely possible that Acton was completely right when she said that.

If a Pilot tells passengers to prepare for severe turbulence, and instead there are only moderate disruptions, do you also conclude that you know how to fly the plane better than the Pilot?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiUyGfDJ76g

Wow.

You go on believing what you want.
Yeah why trust people who spend their careers working in this department, and who have been open and transparent about the data leading them to various conclusions, when you can instead listen to an angry message board poster keep screaming about fake news to a pile of dead bodies.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Yeah, you're right.

And while we're at it, let's ditch Fickell and bring back Tuberville. He never should have been fired since, you know, he had spent is whole career as a football coach and we just should have just blindly listened to him.
 
04-14-2020 09:50 PM
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Bearcatbdub Offline
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Post: #77
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 05:54 PM)Yawny Wrote:  
(04-14-2020 04:59 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  
(04-14-2020 03:47 PM)BearcatsUC Wrote:  
(04-13-2020 02:14 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  
(04-13-2020 02:04 PM)coachpipe Wrote:  How many people have it but havent been tested because of lack of resources or the "wrong" symptoms are showing up and they wont test them?
How many people have it but arent showing any symptoms and dont know they have it like Gobert?

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it still make a sound?

No doubt on the underestimation of cases. Who knows how many or when it even began? The bigger problem is knowing when and how to oil the gears and begin revving the motor of society again.

Who is gonna have big enough cajones to pull the switch?

If you want a taste of what the economy will be like without a shutdown, go to a slaughterhouse. They are shutting down on their own because their workers *are* getting sick. I spent today stocking up on meat.

I’m really sick about only hearing about the economic cost of shutting down. There are serious economic consequences of not shutting down.

Every slaughterhouse? Or just the one you went to? So you are saying there will now be a shortage of meat because in every slaughterhouse on the planet people are becoming sick with Covid and shutting down?

I am sure there would have been some economic impact if we had not taken these drastic measures. I doubt it would have been anything near what we are going to face for the next however many months to years.

I am sure we have saved some lives by shutting down and social distancing. Nobody knows how many for sure- but it’s probably somewhere between 40,000 and 1.9 million people if you reference the models.

Facts remain it will have to open up sooner or later. This is simply not sustainable. Other problems besides the economy are going to pop up. For one, our mostly empty hospitals will be inundated with the results of holding off on surgeries and diagnostics for several months. Eating chips and laying around on the couch ain’t exactly good for them old arteries... where are all those heart attack patients, anyways?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes...e.amp.html

Point being- we got a lot of people just absolutely dead certain that this lockdown was the way to go. We got some other people saying- hey wait a minute? Does this really make sense? I am not saying that I know the other side of the coin better than anyone else. But stop being so arrogant as to think you have already lived through this before and you know what the outcome will be. Because you really have no ******* clue.

I'm sorry but there's no way that you don't realize how sociopathic a line of logic that is.

"I agree we saved between 400k and 1.9m people but we can't be sure that's a good thing until we see what happens to the economy."

It was between 40,000 and 1.9 million (not 400k- nice slip there) to simply illustrate that the models are complete garbage. Meaning- nobody really knows what the outcome will be. But it certainly doesn’t appear to be at the high end range of that.

Right now we stand at around 25,000 dead and 17 million unemployed.

At some point it becomes a law of diminishing returns even in the cost of human lives. If I was 80 and I had grand kids who were looking at starvation or poverty I know I would roll the dice.

And don’t call me a sociopath.
 
04-14-2020 11:00 PM
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Bearcatbdub Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 07:30 PM)the_dude Wrote:  I've seen statistics from European researchers that claim that the number of infected people is 10 to 15 times higher than what is being calculated, due to lack of available testing as well as asymptomatic infections. If true, that puts this illness and mortality rate in line with other flus/colds. Now, that being said, it also means it is HIGHLY contagious, as feared, more so than a normal flu/cold, which means the lockdown was the correct course of action, even if only out of an abundance of caution.

Either way, since we won't have a vaccine for a year at best, eventually through continued waves/peaks, we will get close to the same amount of people getting infected with a partial or full locked down for another 1-1.5 years. The peak has been lowered, now time to collect data, analyze, and look to slowly start re-opening in may if the data supports it. Comparing data from states/countries that did/didn't have lockdowns is crucial.

In an earlier post, I did mention "scare tactics" I want to clarify that I don't think it's a government nor medical conspiracy. I DO think that the media is outright lying as usual (both sides of the fence FOX & MSNBC/CNN) to drum up viewers. Some of the articles on both sides are a joke and are no more than op-ed pieces based on zero data.

No matter what we do, infections will still happen, but we will not be able to avoid that with or without a lockdown. Let's just keep washing hands, keeping distance, wear masks if you are in a vulnerable health situation...just be smart regardless of what comes next.

Now this is a statement I can agree with. There are some steps we can take- protect the vulnerable, keep some of the social distancing guidelines, and wear masks when we do reopen.

But we reopen we must. This is no way to live.

I wouldn’t hold your breath on a vaccine either. Haven’t made an effective one against a coronavirus yet- although there probably hasn’t been this abundance of research on it.
 
04-14-2020 11:09 PM
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RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 08:28 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  It's not an either or thing. If 2 million people are dead there will be huge economic ramifications.

Mr. Kalergi Plan Mark this is a bad flu season.
 
04-14-2020 11:25 PM
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Yawny Offline
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RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(04-14-2020 11:00 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  
(04-14-2020 05:54 PM)Yawny Wrote:  
(04-14-2020 04:59 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  
(04-14-2020 03:47 PM)BearcatsUC Wrote:  
(04-13-2020 02:14 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it still make a sound?

No doubt on the underestimation of cases. Who knows how many or when it even began? The bigger problem is knowing when and how to oil the gears and begin revving the motor of society again.

Who is gonna have big enough cajones to pull the switch?

If you want a taste of what the economy will be like without a shutdown, go to a slaughterhouse. They are shutting down on their own because their workers *are* getting sick. I spent today stocking up on meat.

I’m really sick about only hearing about the economic cost of shutting down. There are serious economic consequences of not shutting down.

Every slaughterhouse? Or just the one you went to? So you are saying there will now be a shortage of meat because in every slaughterhouse on the planet people are becoming sick with Covid and shutting down?

I am sure there would have been some economic impact if we had not taken these drastic measures. I doubt it would have been anything near what we are going to face for the next however many months to years.

I am sure we have saved some lives by shutting down and social distancing. Nobody knows how many for sure- but it’s probably somewhere between 40,000 and 1.9 million people if you reference the models.

Facts remain it will have to open up sooner or later. This is simply not sustainable. Other problems besides the economy are going to pop up. For one, our mostly empty hospitals will be inundated with the results of holding off on surgeries and diagnostics for several months. Eating chips and laying around on the couch ain’t exactly good for them old arteries... where are all those heart attack patients, anyways?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes...e.amp.html

Point being- we got a lot of people just absolutely dead certain that this lockdown was the way to go. We got some other people saying- hey wait a minute? Does this really make sense? I am not saying that I know the other side of the coin better than anyone else. But stop being so arrogant as to think you have already lived through this before and you know what the outcome will be. Because you really have no ******* clue.

I'm sorry but there's no way that you don't realize how sociopathic a line of logic that is.

"I agree we saved between 400k and 1.9m people but we can't be sure that's a good thing until we see what happens to the economy."

It was between 40,000 and 1.9 million (not 400k- nice slip there) to simply illustrate that the models are complete garbage. Meaning- nobody really knows what the outcome will be. But it certainly doesn’t appear to be at the high end range of that.

Right now we stand at around 25,000 dead and 17 million unemployed.

At some point it becomes a law of diminishing returns even in the cost of human lives. If I was 80 and I had grand kids who were looking at starvation or poverty I know I would roll the dice.

And don’t call me a sociopath.

Typos aside, when your particular "law of diminishing returns" involves deaths vs the economy, and you're arguing for the latter, you're a sociopath.

At the end of the day you're arguing maybe a depression vs guaranteed millions of deaths.

You're on the wrong side of the trolley problem, friend.
 
(This post was last modified: 04-15-2020 01:54 AM by Yawny.)
04-15-2020 01:51 AM
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