(02-28-2020 05:40 PM)stxrunner Wrote: Raw # of wins is not indicative of how strong a team is as a result of the wildly unbalanced schedules across the sport today.
That is true, I agree, but only to a limited extent.
The selection committee does take the number of wins, as well as the team's NET ranking and strength of schedule into consideration.
In last season's NCAA tournament, there were only four at-large teams that made the tournament field with less than 20 wins. All four teams had 19 wins.
It thus seems likely that top 48 NET teams with fewer than 19 wins won't make their way into the tournament without winning at least 19 games.
There are currently 4 top 48 NET teams with only 13 to 16 wins. It seems likely that at least 3 of those 4 teams won't end up with 19 wins, and that they won't be in the tournament unless they win their conference tournaments.
Thus, the #49, #50, #51, and #52 teams have quite a good chance to make the tournament field.
So where does that leave Cincy (NET: #53)?
It puts them right on the edge, along with 9 of the top 52 NET teams that have only 17 (#52 NC State) or 18 wins at present.
Thus, Cincy can control their destiny by winning more games than one or two of those other 9 teams with 17 or 18 wins do, going forward.
When you look at it that way, Cincy's chances of making the field with an at-large bid are probably quite good, if they finish with ~21 or 22 wins.
Memphis's chances aren't as good, despite having 19 wins, due to their #61 NET rank, but they might be able to boost their NET sufficiently by winning 4 or 5 more games. If they get that far, the auto bid would be within reach by winning a 6th game - the AACT championship.