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mrbig Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 05:46 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:35 PM)mrbig Wrote:  Honest question, but do you have a medical, epidemiological, infectious disease, or public health background? If not, I'm not sure how you can come to this conclusion.

My conclusions are an informed opinion, and I arrive at them pretty much the same way you do, I imagine. How do you decide which presidential candidate will be best for the economy, if you're not an economist? How do you take a position on climate change if you're not a climatologist? Further, I know panic and overreaction when I see it, from experience.

I was talking about a specific quote where you stated something as fact, not as opinion. So I was trying to determine whether you were offering some kind of expert-type analysis or whether you were just stating an opinion in the form of a fact. Thank you for clarifying.

(02-27-2020 05:46 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  The experts tell me that coronavirus isn't a very serious illness if you're not already sick, which I'm not. Objectively, it's no worse than flu, and certainly a lot less serious than Ebola.

Depends on how you look at things. COVID-19 is much easier to transmit than Ebola, so in that sense COVID-19 is arguably more serious because it is more difficult to contain.

COVID-19 kills at 20x the rate of the flu (~2.0% compared to 0.1%), so in that sense it is arguably objectively worse than the flu.
02-27-2020 10:27 PM
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illiniowl Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 10:10 PM)ausowl Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 06:56 PM)ruowls Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 06:02 PM)ausowl Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 05:01 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:54 PM)ruowls Wrote:  https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/c...-symptoms/

Thanks, Dr. RU (for those that don't know, I mean literally RUOWLS, MD)

So if you had 17 year old heading to Japan this June . . . how concerned would you be at this point? From "wait and see" to "shut that trip down now and head to the ranch with water, Pearl and guns."

I'm in the wait and see camp. Wife is buying ammunition.

"It has a higher case-fatality ratio and a higher reproduction number than influenza – meaning it could spread more widely."

As a parent, concerned.
As a doctor, the illness seems to be comparable to the flu. The article referenced The Lancet in that the numbers aren't fully known because the final disposition of all cases has yet to be determined and there is likely under-reporting of the total number of infections. Both of these factors would change the case fatality number. With that said, the numbers likely would not deviate that much from where they are now. Traveling closer to origination area does put one in a higher concentrated area of infections and thus would increase the risk of morbidity and mortality. However, the increased risk on a per person basis would be negligible. It is to your advantage to wait until June to see how the more recent numbers change the risk. I just looked at numbers and China has 78,514 coronavirus cases, Japan 207, and US 60. So, the risk would be slightly higher in Japan vs. US but much better than in China. With all said, waiting to see if the numbers change would be wise. As a comparison, the US estimate for flu cases for 2019-20 is 29,000,000-43,000,000 cases and 10,000+ deaths. Also, it appears the Japan flu season is coming to an end as new cases are decreasing by over 60% per week as people are taking more preventative measures. The flu season ends in April in the US. Therefore, it might be safer to be in Japan in the next few months. Hope that helps.

Much appreciated.
My college-junior son is heading to Japan in 3 weeks for a study-abroad term running through July . . . hopefully. Dodged a bullet today with Japan not including universities in the schools shutdown. Could still see his USA school pull the plug -- programs to Italy are now being canceled like those to China and Hong Kong -- but that would be a gross overreaction IMO and incredibly disappointing. Japan is not China, COVID-19 is not Ebola, and healthy young adults are not an at-risk population.

My own trip to JPN & HKG in July remains on schedule! COVID-19 will be long over with by then.
02-28-2020 12:02 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #43
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 10:27 PM)mrbig Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 05:46 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  The experts tell me that coronavirus isn't a very serious illness if you're not already sick, which I'm not. Objectively, it's no worse than flu, and certainly a lot less serious than Ebola.
Depends on how you look at things. COVID-19 is much easier to transmit than Ebola, so in that sense COVID-19 is arguably more serious because it is more difficult to contain.
COVID-19 kills at 20x the rate of the flu (~2.0% compared to 0.1%), so in that sense it is arguably objectively worse than the flu.

Well, keep in mind that the virus is still principally in China, so any statistical data are heavily weighted toward China's experience at this point.

And China has one of the very few truly single-payer health systems. Let's see how their handling of this compares to ours at the end of the day.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 12:07 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
02-28-2020 12:07 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 12:02 AM)illiniowl Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 10:10 PM)ausowl Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 06:56 PM)ruowls Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 06:02 PM)ausowl Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 05:01 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Thanks, Dr. RU (for those that don't know, I mean literally RUOWLS, MD)

So if you had 17 year old heading to Japan this June . . . how concerned would you be at this point? From "wait and see" to "shut that trip down now and head to the ranch with water, Pearl and guns."

I'm in the wait and see camp. Wife is buying ammunition.

"It has a higher case-fatality ratio and a higher reproduction number than influenza – meaning it could spread more widely."

As a parent, concerned.
As a doctor, the illness seems to be comparable to the flu. The article referenced The Lancet in that the numbers aren't fully known because the final disposition of all cases has yet to be determined and there is likely under-reporting of the total number of infections. Both of these factors would change the case fatality number. With that said, the numbers likely would not deviate that much from where they are now. Traveling closer to origination area does put one in a higher concentrated area of infections and thus would increase the risk of morbidity and mortality. However, the increased risk on a per person basis would be negligible. It is to your advantage to wait until June to see how the more recent numbers change the risk. I just looked at numbers and China has 78,514 coronavirus cases, Japan 207, and US 60. So, the risk would be slightly higher in Japan vs. US but much better than in China. With all said, waiting to see if the numbers change would be wise. As a comparison, the US estimate for flu cases for 2019-20 is 29,000,000-43,000,000 cases and 10,000+ deaths. Also, it appears the Japan flu season is coming to an end as new cases are decreasing by over 60% per week as people are taking more preventative measures. The flu season ends in April in the US. Therefore, it might be safer to be in Japan in the next few months. Hope that helps.

Much appreciated.
My college-junior son is heading to Japan in 3 weeks for a study-abroad term running through July . . . hopefully. Dodged a bullet today with Japan not including universities in the schools shutdown. Could still see his USA school pull the plug -- programs to Italy are now being canceled like those to China and Hong Kong -- but that would be a gross overreaction IMO and incredibly disappointing. Japan is not China, COVID-19 is not Ebola, and healthy young adults are not an at-risk population.

My own trip to JPN & HKG in July remains on schedule! COVID-19 will be long over with by then.

My wife’s university has moved to asking all faculty to provide details on upcoming work travel, and we both think they’ll start nixing work travel to certain countries (besides China) very soon. With so many people to manage (and many of them working all over the globe), I think we’ll see universities become very cautious, as to avoid become a hub for transmission.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Japan include universities soon, too, given that they have the summer games coming up and they want to avoid any fears of an outbreak in their country.
02-28-2020 07:13 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
From Feb 2018:

Quote: The former chief of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the decision to cut 80% of its epidemic prevention activities overseas could pose a grave danger to the United States because it "would significantly increase the chance an epidemic will spread without our knowledge and endanger lives in our country and around the world."

The CDC informed personnel in the past two weeks that it was discontinuing its work in 39 out of 49 countries where its Center for Global Health helps prevent, detect and respond to dangerous infectious disease threats, such as Ebola and the Zika virus. The agency said it was forced to make the decision because it doesn't expect any new funding for the programs.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/03/health/cd...index.html
02-28-2020 07:30 AM
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Frizzy Owl Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  From Feb 2018:

Quote: The former chief of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the decision to cut 80% of its epidemic prevention activities overseas could pose a grave danger to the United States because it "would significantly increase the chance an epidemic will spread without our knowledge and endanger lives in our country and around the world."

The CDC informed personnel in the past two weeks that it was discontinuing its work in 39 out of 49 countries where its Center for Global Health helps prevent, detect and respond to dangerous infectious disease threats, such as Ebola and the Zika virus. The agency said it was forced to make the decision because it doesn't expect any new funding for the programs.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/03/health/cd...index.html

The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.

EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 08:43 AM by Frizzy Owl.)
02-28-2020 08:27 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #47
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  From Feb 2018:
Quote:
The former chief of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the decision to cut 80% of its epidemic prevention activities overseas could pose a grave danger to the United States because it "would significantly increase the chance an epidemic will spread without our knowledge and endanger lives in our country and around the world."
The CDC informed personnel in the past two weeks that it was discontinuing its work in 39 out of 49 countries where its Center for Global Health helps prevent, detect and respond to dangerous infectious disease threats, such as Ebola and the Zika virus. The agency said it was forced to make the decision because it doesn't expect any new funding for the programs.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/03/health/cd...index.html
The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.
EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.

It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.

And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng.
02-28-2020 09:15 AM
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Frizzy Owl Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  From Feb 2018:
Quote:
The former chief of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the decision to cut 80% of its epidemic prevention activities overseas could pose a grave danger to the United States because it "would significantly increase the chance an epidemic will spread without our knowledge and endanger lives in our country and around the world."
The CDC informed personnel in the past two weeks that it was discontinuing its work in 39 out of 49 countries where its Center for Global Health helps prevent, detect and respond to dangerous infectious disease threats, such as Ebola and the Zika virus. The agency said it was forced to make the decision because it doesn't expect any new funding for the programs.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/03/health/cd...index.html
The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.
EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.

It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.

And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng.

This article mentions only the ten remaining: India, Thailand, Vietnam, Jordan, Kenya, Uganda, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Guatemala.

Actually, as mentioned in a different article cited earlier in this thread, China was one of the 39 countries that was cut. However, even RiceLad agreed that the CDC's presence in China would not have made a difference wrt to coronavirus because of China's attitude toward outside assistance.
02-28-2020 09:26 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  From Feb 2018:
Quote:
The former chief of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the decision to cut 80% of its epidemic prevention activities overseas could pose a grave danger to the United States because it "would significantly increase the chance an epidemic will spread without our knowledge and endanger lives in our country and around the world."
The CDC informed personnel in the past two weeks that it was discontinuing its work in 39 out of 49 countries where its Center for Global Health helps prevent, detect and respond to dangerous infectious disease threats, such as Ebola and the Zika virus. The agency said it was forced to make the decision because it doesn't expect any new funding for the programs.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/03/health/cd...index.html
The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.
EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.

It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.

And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng.

China was included.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-y...-outbreak/
02-28-2020 09:33 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 09:33 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  From Feb 2018:
Quote:
The former chief of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the decision to cut 80% of its epidemic prevention activities overseas could pose a grave danger to the United States because it "would significantly increase the chance an epidemic will spread without our knowledge and endanger lives in our country and around the world."
The CDC informed personnel in the past two weeks that it was discontinuing its work in 39 out of 49 countries where its Center for Global Health helps prevent, detect and respond to dangerous infectious disease threats, such as Ebola and the Zika virus. The agency said it was forced to make the decision because it doesn't expect any new funding for the programs.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/03/health/cd...index.html
The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.
EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.

It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.

And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng.

China was included.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-y...-outbreak/

Oh, dear, he cut a bloated bureaucracy. No wonder the Democrats hate him. Their motto is No government worker left behind, except ICE.
02-28-2020 09:40 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #51
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 09:33 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  From Feb 2018:
Quote:
The former chief of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the decision to cut 80% of its epidemic prevention activities overseas could pose a grave danger to the United States because it "would significantly increase the chance an epidemic will spread without our knowledge and endanger lives in our country and around the world."
The CDC informed personnel in the past two weeks that it was discontinuing its work in 39 out of 49 countries where its Center for Global Health helps prevent, detect and respond to dangerous infectious disease threats, such as Ebola and the Zika virus. The agency said it was forced to make the decision because it doesn't expect any new funding for the programs.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/03/health/cd...index.html
The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.
EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.
It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.
And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng.
China was included.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-y...-outbreak/

Do we know what they were actually doing?

I mean, there is this rush to day, "OMG, we're cutting funding, we're all going to be destroyed." But I'm not sure what it actually means.

It's kind of like the Benghazi argument that republicans cut funding for embassy security, so we got an ambassador killed. Number one, if funding were cut, it seems logical that we'd cut in low-threat places, of which Libya was hardly one. Number two, what was needed in Benghazi was not a security force but a military presence close enough to do some good, like what we would do back in my days--an amphibious with a company of Marines standing by offshore. I know wy we don't have that today, the Navy doesn't ave the ships to do it. So why was something as stupid as Benghazi ever tried in the first place?
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 09:49 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
02-28-2020 09:44 AM
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Frizzy Owl Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 09:44 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 09:33 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  From Feb 2018:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/03/health/cd...index.html
The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.
EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.
It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.
And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng.
China was included.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-y...-outbreak/

Do we know what they were actually doing?

Not from either the WaPo or CNN articles, we don't. That's the problem with what passes for journalism these days. Maybe the CDC was doing ground-level research in China, and in expanding its knowledge database was doing a lot of good and getting bang for the taxpayers' buck. Or maybe not. The only argument the articles make is that if Trump cut the funding, then the cuts must have been bad. That's not even logical.

But, then again, intelligent and educated people, who ought to know better than be taken in by that kind of argument, fall for it. So, for purposes of influencing public opinion, that kind of "journalism" seems to work.

No one should be better at critical and independent thinking than a graduate of an elite university, and that even the recent Rice graduates lack that skill is positively horrifying, IMO.
02-28-2020 09:53 AM
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Post: #53
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 05:20 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  You forgot the 'such as'. Typical though for you to pick and choose the way you want to edit.

Good lord 01-wingedeagle

Forgive me for brevity. My comment, unlike yours... was not an attack on you, but talking about sources and how 'what they choose to focus on' can influence perceptions. Contrary to your belief, adding the words 'such as' doesn't in any way remotely change anything.

Since you did so rudely bring it up though, I'll play...

The single item your source mentioned was 37 million out of 1.25byn.... about 3% of the total. The one mine mentioned was 535 million... about 43% of the total. Minor difference in relative dollars. The Hill (which I admitted was a source I wasn't familiar with, but despite its clear left slant in terms of ownership and number of columnists seems like it's making a real effort to be unbiased) chose what clearly seems to be the largest single source of funds... and YOUR source seemingly chose the one that sounds the most 'negative'. I'd also note that LIHEAP's annual appropriation is over $3byn, so $37mm is probably less than 1%. Yeah... NO WAY we haven't missed an estimate by 1% and thus there may be a surplus there... I don't know what the annual appropriation for Ebola is, but the EMERGENCY ask in 2014 was only about $6byn. Seems to me there must have been a SIGNIFICANT surplus there as well.

It wasn't a comment about you.... until you decided to make it one.


It's literally laughable that I'd have to add the words 'such as' when we're talking about $1.25byn in funding and the source is only mentioning where 37 million came from. If anyone reading this didn't assume that this was merely one example of a source (thus needing the words, 'such as') then they're morons. I assume people on this forum aren't morons.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 10:07 AM by Hambone10.)
02-28-2020 09:58 AM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.

EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.

(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.

And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng.

I quoted the same part of the same CNN article in the 5th post in this thread. I also quoted the same Washington Post article noting that China was one of the countries on the cut list. I also noted the dates in both articles (February 2018) to point out that this wasn't some retrospective self-serving statement by former Obama officials, but rather a warning that detection and prevention efforts were being undermined by the budget cuts.

(02-28-2020 09:40 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Oh, dear, he cut a bloated bureaucracy. No wonder the Democrats hate him. Their motto is No government worker left behind, except ICE.

This is your criticism? Mid-pandemic for a program that was started in response to the ebola outbreak and where the country of origin for the pandemic was one of the countries where funding was cut? I don't get it.

Interested in ruowls' thoughts on the CDC funding cuts back in February 2018.
02-28-2020 10:52 AM
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Post: #55
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 10:52 AM)mrbig Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.

EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.

(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.

And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng.

I quoted the same part of the same CNN article in the 5th post in this thread. I also quoted the same Washington Post article noting that China was one of the countries on the cut list. I also noted the dates in both articles (February 2018) to point out that this wasn't some retrospective self-serving statement by former Obama officials, but rather a warning that detection and prevention efforts were being undermined by the budget cuts.

(02-28-2020 09:40 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Oh, dear, he cut a bloated bureaucracy. No wonder the Democrats hate him. Their motto is No government worker left behind, except ICE.

This is your criticism? Mid-pandemic for a program that was started in response to the ebola outbreak and where the country of origin for the pandemic was one of the countries where funding was cut? I don't get it.

Interested in ruowls' thoughts on the CDC funding cuts back in February 2018.

Present one shred of evidence that the CDC was doing anything in China that would have made any difference regarding coronavirus. Otherwise your argument is non-sequitur.

ETA: "Pandemic"? What pandemic? Your word for it. It hasn't been declared such.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 11:13 AM by Frizzy Owl.)
02-28-2020 10:59 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #56
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 09:40 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Oh, dear, he cut a bloated bureaucracy. No wonder the Democrats hate him. Their motto is No government worker left behind, except ICE.

As Ronald Reagan note, "The closest thing on earth to eternal life is a government bureaucracy."

I'd really be interested in knowing how many people were doing actual work in the field and how many were shuffling papers at some administrative location.
02-28-2020 11:11 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #57
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 10:52 AM)mrbig Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.
EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.
(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.
And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng.
I quoted the same part of the same CNN article in the 5th post in this thread. I also quoted the same Washington Post article noting that China was one of the countries on the cut list. I also noted the dates in both articles (February 2018) to point out that this wasn't some retrospective self-serving statement by former Obama officials, but rather a warning that detection and prevention efforts were being undermined by the budget cuts.

I don't see any indication that any detection and prevention efforts were being undermined, short of what truly was a self-serving statement.

But here's the part that I wonder about. Whenever budget cuts come down, bureaucrats don't like that. So they decide to apply the cuts to the places that will do the most harm, and when that harm comes they get their money back. Here's how I think it probably came down. The department got told that they were going to have to absorb some cuts. Did they cut any bureaucrats driving desks around DC and doing nothing productive? No. Let's absorb the cuts in the field. And we will make major cuts in a program that has the potential for disaster. And we'll pray that that disaster happens, and when it does we'll get funding out the wazoo. Then our job will be to make sure that we hold on to as much of that funding as we can.
02-28-2020 11:21 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 10:59 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 10:52 AM)mrbig Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.

EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.

(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.

And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng.

I quoted the same part of the same CNN article in the 5th post in this thread. I also quoted the same Washington Post article noting that China was one of the countries on the cut list. I also noted the dates in both articles (February 2018) to point out that this wasn't some retrospective self-serving statement by former Obama officials, but rather a warning that detection and prevention efforts were being undermined by the budget cuts.

(02-28-2020 09:40 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Oh, dear, he cut a bloated bureaucracy. No wonder the Democrats hate him. Their motto is No government worker left behind, except ICE.

This is your criticism? Mid-pandemic for a program that was started in response to the ebola outbreak and where the country of origin for the pandemic was one of the countries where funding was cut? I don't get it.

Interested in ruowls' thoughts on the CDC funding cuts back in February 2018.

Present one shred of evidence that the CDC was doing anything in China that would have made any difference regarding coronavirus. Otherwise your argument is non-sequitur.

ETA: "Pandemic"? What pandemic? Your word for it. It hasn't been declared such.

Correct - no pandemic declaration yet. WHO has indicated that the virus has a potential to become a pandemic.

And it isn't a non-sequitur to comment that the reduction in funding of EPIDEMIC PREVENTION of all things, in the country where this virus originated could have been a net negative. I'm not sure what their exact activities were, but I'm guessing they dealt with preventing epidemics to attempt to keep them from become pandemics. But I guess the CDC could have completed misrepresented what their action groups did...

I think it's a perfectly valid argument to wonder what sort of impact the funding would have had, and if it would have been enough to slow or stop the epidemic. But to say it's a non-sequitur is a stretch.
02-28-2020 11:23 AM
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Post: #59
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-28-2020 11:23 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 10:59 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 10:52 AM)mrbig Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN.

EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago.

(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.

And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng.

I quoted the same part of the same CNN article in the 5th post in this thread. I also quoted the same Washington Post article noting that China was one of the countries on the cut list. I also noted the dates in both articles (February 2018) to point out that this wasn't some retrospective self-serving statement by former Obama officials, but rather a warning that detection and prevention efforts were being undermined by the budget cuts.

(02-28-2020 09:40 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Oh, dear, he cut a bloated bureaucracy. No wonder the Democrats hate him. Their motto is No government worker left behind, except ICE.

This is your criticism? Mid-pandemic for a program that was started in response to the ebola outbreak and where the country of origin for the pandemic was one of the countries where funding was cut? I don't get it.

Interested in ruowls' thoughts on the CDC funding cuts back in February 2018.

Present one shred of evidence that the CDC was doing anything in China that would have made any difference regarding coronavirus. Otherwise your argument is non-sequitur.

ETA: "Pandemic"? What pandemic? Your word for it. It hasn't been declared such.

Correct - no pandemic declaration yet. WHO has indicated that the virus has a potential to become a pandemic.

And it isn't a non-sequitur to comment that the reduction in funding of EPIDEMIC PREVENTION of all things, in the country where this virus originated could have been a net negative. I'm not sure what their exact activities were, but I'm guessing they dealt with preventing epidemics to attempt to keep them from become pandemics. But I guess the CDC could have completed misrepresented what their action groups did...

I think it's a perfectly valid argument to wonder what sort of impact the funding would have had, and if it would have been enough to slow or stop the epidemic. But to say it's a non-sequitur is a stretch.

Of course it's valid to wonder. That's what I'm doing, as in "I wonder if the budget cuts made any difference whatsoever? Those persons bringing them up in the context of coronavirus seem to be implying that they did, but they offer no evidence at all to that effect, and when pressed on the issue some of them admit that the Chinese government would not have accepted any real assistance."
02-28-2020 11:27 AM
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Frizzy Owl Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence.
Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence.
Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence.
Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence.
Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence.
Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence.

Does that bear repeating? Apparently it does.
02-28-2020 11:35 AM
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