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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 11:39 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 11:32 AM)mrbig Wrote:  Coronavirus and the politics and policy surrounding it are kind of taking over the 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread right now, so I'm trying to shift and focus the discussion into its own thread.

Picking up on those posts, I have a question for the conservatives around here. You are doing a lot of RiceLad15 bashing in the other thread. Separate from his coronavirus post and what Lad wrote ... what do you think Trump's handling of preparation for a possible pandemic and now his handling of this actual (likely) pandemic. You all see to enjoy bashing Lad, which seems like a waste of time. But I'm interested in how you think the Trump administration is actually doing on a substantive level.

If Lad would not post silly things and then reverse himself into even sillier positions, he would be immune to bashing.

So far, I suspect more needs to be done. Unlike the Trump bashers, I expect more will be done. His re-election may hinge on it. Big motivation for him.

Now I have answered your question, now answer one of mine.

What more (or different) do you think a Democrat would be doing?

Ask, and you shall receive. A political ploy from Warren, no doubt, but the initial funding estimate from the WH seems to be lower than what many at the federal level want.

Quote:The bill, according to Warren’s office, would result in approximately $10 billion being shifted from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)...

The White House has suggested $2.5 billion to combat the coronavirus, while Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) is requesting $8.5 billion.

What number lawmakers will end up at as they negotiate on a supplemental bill remains unclear.

“The United States government must do more to address the spread of the deadly coronavirus in a smart, strategic, and serious way and we stand ready to work in a bipartisan fashion in Congress and with the administration to achieve this necessary goal,” Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said on Thursday in a joint statement.

“Lives are at stake — this is not the time for name-calling or playing politics,” they added.

Top Republicans — including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) — have also indicated that they want a higher number than the initial White House offer.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4849...oronavirus
02-27-2020 04:05 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
There was a comment about “lack of leadership”. I asked what a Democrat ( any Democrat) would be doing that Trump isn’t. Apparently the answer is: spending more.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020 04:17 PM by OptimisticOwl.)
02-27-2020 04:15 PM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 01:34 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  the utter failure at the first phase lays squarely on the Chinese medical system *and* on the government/medical industry entanglement in that country. As begets any authoritarian system, whether it is cloaked as a branch of the economy or not.

Agree 100%
02-27-2020 04:25 PM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 02:20 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Sounds like the only concrete thing you would change is to spend more money.

Lack of leadership is in the eye of the beholder.

You didn't ask what I would do, you asked:

(02-27-2020 11:39 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  What more (or different) do you think a Democrat would be doing?

I was explaining what Trump did. I think a democratic president would have continued everything Obama put in place after the ebola outbreak. Probably not much more or much less. It isn't just about spending money, it is about readiness and responsiveness. And yes, that costs money, but the point isn't the money itself.

As for leadership, I didn't say anything specific about Trump's leadership post-outbreak. I merely pointed out that he eliminated a number of leadership positions within the government, and I do not think a democratic president would have done so. So my belief is that the US response was less organized and less focussed initially than it otherwise would have been.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020 04:38 PM by mrbig.)
02-27-2020 04:31 PM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 03:02 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  The rest of the world is wildly overstating the risks of contracting coronavirus by being in China, and now people are panicking.

Honest question, but do you have a medical, epidemiological, infectious disease, or public health background? If not, I'm not sure how you can come to this conclusion.

I'm not saying everyone should panic. But I do think everyone should be following the news, listening to experts, and at least thinking about how to act if there is an outbreak in the USA.
02-27-2020 04:35 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
Okay... trying to have a serious discussion here...

Schumer's request for 8.5byn includes

1byn for vaccine development - I think we all agree with that

1byn for an emergency reserve fund for USAID... so unnecessary in terms of something that couldn't be done later if and as needed

2byn for state and local governments for monies they MIGHT spend

3byn for the PHSS Emergency Fund... again, unnecessary in terms of something that couldn't be done later if and as needed

and 1.5byn for the CDC... It doesn't really say what that is for, but okay... I think we all generally support this...

So the real difference in terms of dollars between Trump's 2.5byn and Schumer's 8byn is 5.5byn in contingency funds. While I can't demonstrate it (nobody could) this seems a decent example of the difference between a politician and a businessman. It is not ridiculous to say that one seems to be taking a big bite as if they can't take another bite later if necessary and the other is taking a smaller bite, knowing they can get another later if necessary

Personally I think it prudent for the Federal government to spend what we know we need and not simply create a myriad of contingency funds. Feds unlike states can simply print money if necessary. I can't find a link to how Trump's proposal breaks down, but I'm betting it doesn't involve a lot of contingency funds.
02-27-2020 04:36 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 04:15 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  There was a comment about “lack of leadership”. I asked what a Democrat ( any Democrat) would be doing that Trump isn’t. Apparently the answer is: spending more.

Spending more on research, instead of cuts to the CDC (whose budget primarily goes to grants and groups conducting research at the state and local level), NIH and other scientific organizations. For the last 3 years, Trump has cut back on scientific research at every level, and the country has zero confidence in his ability to lead a full scale medical crisis (it's not a medical crisis here yet, but I firmly believe Trump's emphasis on military budget over science is what has led to the financial crisis).

Not putting a man in charge of the operation who has a horrendous track record in managing large scale health projects.

And of course, not conducting a horrific press conference like we saw last night.

Stocks with the biggest 1-day drop in history today. I think you can blame today's market response clearly on 2 things - one, his press conference. And two, Japan's reaction earlier today in shutting down their schools for a month.

The last time the stock market dropped this much was under Jimmy Carter.
02-27-2020 04:38 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 04:36 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Okay... trying to have a serious discussion here...

Schumer's request for 8.5byn includes

1byn for vaccine development - I think we all agree with that

1byn for an emergency reserve fund for USAID... so unnecessary in terms of something that couldn't be done later if and as needed

2byn for state and local governments for monies they MIGHT spend

3byn for the PHSS Emergency Fund... again, unnecessary in terms of something that couldn't be done later if and as needed

and 1.5byn for the CDC... It doesn't really say what that is for, but okay... I think we all generally support this...

So the real difference in terms of dollars between Trump's 2.5byn and Schumer's 8byn is 5.5byn in contingency funds. While I can't demonstrate it (nobody could) this seems a decent example of the difference between a politician and a businessman. It is not ridiculous to say that one seems to be taking a big bite as if they can't take another bite later if necessary and the other is taking a smaller bite, knowing they can get another later if necessary

Personally I think it prudent for the Federal government to spend what we know we need and not simply create a myriad of contingency funds. Feds unlike states can simply print money if necessary. I can't find a link to how Trump's proposal breaks down, but I'm betting it doesn't involve a lot of contingency funds.

What I read was about 1 billion was being diverted from other programs (such as heating and cooling for the poor), and the rest was 'new money'.
02-27-2020 04:40 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 04:31 PM)mrbig Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 02:20 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Sounds like the only concrete thing you would change is to spend more money.

Lack of leadership is in the eye of the beholder.

You didn't ask what I would do, you asked:

(02-27-2020 11:39 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  What more (or different) do you think a Democrat would be doing?

I was explaining what Trump did. I think a democratic president would have continued everything Obama put in place after the ebola outbreak. Probably not much more or much less.

As for leadership, I didn't say anything specific about Trump's leadership post-outbreak. I merely pointed out that he eliminated a number of leadership positions within the government, and I do not think a democratic president would have done so. So my belief is that the US response was less organized and less focussed initially than it otherwise would have been.

I think the leadership comment was Lad. I agree that a Dem president would not have eliminated positions - not the Dem philosophy.
02-27-2020 04:40 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 04:38 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:15 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  There was a comment about “lack of leadership”. I asked what a Democrat ( any Democrat) would be doing that Trump isn’t. Apparently the answer is: spending more.

Spending more on research, instead of cuts to the CDC (whose budget primarily goes to grants and groups conducting research at the state and local level), NIH and other scientific organizations. For the last 3 years, Trump has cut back on scientific research at every level, and the country has zero confidence in his ability to lead a full scale medical crisis (it's not a medical crisis here yet, but I firmly believe Trump's emphasis on military budget over science is what has led to the financial crisis).

Not putting a man in charge of the operation who has a horrendous track record in managing large scale health projects.

And of course, not conducting a horrific press conference like we saw last night.

Stocks with the biggest 1-day drop in history today. I think you can blame today's market response clearly on 2 things - one, his press conference. And two, Japan's reaction earlier today in shutting down their schools for a month.

The last time the stock market dropped this much was under Jimmy Carter.

Man, the goalposts keep moving. One guy says a lot of leaders were fired. Another says research was cut back. The only point of agreement is that Trump is bad. Same point of agreement from before the crisis.

As for the stock market, Lad can tell you that most Americans don’t own stock, so it doesn’t affect them. Who cares if a few billionaires lose money?
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020 04:48 PM by OptimisticOwl.)
02-27-2020 04:46 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 04:35 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I'm not saying everyone should panic. But I do think everyone should be following the news, listening to experts, and at least thinking about how to act if there is an outbreak in the USA.

I wouldn't listen a lot to news. There's no way NOT to panic if that is your source. I absolutely would listen to experts like the CDC etc in terms of facts, figures etc... but remember that their entire job is to play defense... and there is zero risk to them in being 'over-prepared'.
As to thinking about how to act...
now...
1) monitor your own health. You are much more at risk if you are otherwise compromised.
2) watch out for those with compromised immune systems just as you did/would through flu season.
3) practice good hygiene.

there are some other thoughts, but they would be more person/job specific.

as to what to do with a larger outbreak?
If you are not otherwise compromised or showing symptoms or have reason to think you are infected, DO NOT SEEK ATTENTION FROM HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS
1) they're busy caring for sick people 2) you would be going to a place where the virus is more prevalent..

Work from home if/as you can. Avoid crowds

beyond that, it depends on what you mean by larger. Healthy people who don't work in healthcare generally have little to worry about. Infants, the elderly and the compromised... masks and gloves etc etc etc
02-27-2020 04:46 PM
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ruowls Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 04:46 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:35 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I'm not saying everyone should panic. But I do think everyone should be following the news, listening to experts, and at least thinking about how to act if there is an outbreak in the USA.

I wouldn't listen a lot to news. There's no way NOT to panic if that is your source. I absolutely would listen to experts like the CDC etc in terms of facts, figures etc... but remember that their entire job is to play defense... and there is zero risk to them in being 'over-prepared'.
As to thinking about how to act...
now...
1) monitor your own health. You are much more at risk if you are otherwise compromised.
2) watch out for those with compromised immune systems just as you did/would through flu season.
3) practice good hygiene.

there are some other thoughts, but they would be more person/job specific.

as to what to do with a larger outbreak?
If you are not otherwise compromised or showing symptoms or have reason to think you are infected, DO NOT SEEK ATTENTION FROM HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS
1) they're busy caring for sick people 2) you would be going to a place where the virus is more prevalent..

Work from home if/as you can. Avoid crowds

beyond that, it depends on what you mean by larger. Healthy people who don't work in healthcare generally have little to worry about. Infants, the elderly and the compromised... masks and gloves etc etc etc

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/c...-symptoms/
02-27-2020 04:54 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 04:40 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  What I read was about 1 billion was being diverted from other programs (such as heating and cooling for the poor), and the rest was 'new money'.

My question was about where the money was going.... whether Trump and Schumer were close on their allocations of $1byn to a vaccine and 1.5byn to the CDC or if money was being allocated to the states in anticipation of need (beyond CDC funds) etc etc etc

I'm sort of laughing though at the difference between what you read and what I read on where it came from. My source was 'The Hill' for what that is worth. I don't know if that leans left or right, but the article was about Schumer's 8.5byn request for funds and did not read as pro or con to me.... What I read said 1.25byn was new money.... with the rest coming from existing health programs including $535mm from fighting Ebola

I got 'existing health programs' and you got 'heating and cooling for the poor'.
02-27-2020 04:59 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 04:54 PM)ruowls Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:46 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:35 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I'm not saying everyone should panic. But I do think everyone should be following the news, listening to experts, and at least thinking about how to act if there is an outbreak in the USA.

I wouldn't listen a lot to news. There's no way NOT to panic if that is your source. I absolutely would listen to experts like the CDC etc in terms of facts, figures etc... but remember that their entire job is to play defense... and there is zero risk to them in being 'over-prepared'.
As to thinking about how to act...
now...
1) monitor your own health. You are much more at risk if you are otherwise compromised.
2) watch out for those with compromised immune systems just as you did/would through flu season.
3) practice good hygiene.

there are some other thoughts, but they would be more person/job specific.

as to what to do with a larger outbreak?
If you are not otherwise compromised or showing symptoms or have reason to think you are infected, DO NOT SEEK ATTENTION FROM HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS
1) they're busy caring for sick people 2) you would be going to a place where the virus is more prevalent..

Work from home if/as you can. Avoid crowds

beyond that, it depends on what you mean by larger. Healthy people who don't work in healthcare generally have little to worry about. Infants, the elderly and the compromised... masks and gloves etc etc etc

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/c...-symptoms/

Thanks, Dr. RU (for those that don't know, I mean literally RUOWLS, MD)
02-27-2020 05:01 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 04:59 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:40 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  What I read was about 1 billion was being diverted from other programs (such as heating and cooling for the poor), and the rest was 'new money'.

My question was about where the money was going.... whether Trump and Schumer were close on their allocations of $1byn to a vaccine and 1.5byn to the CDC or if money was being allocated to the states in anticipation of need (beyond CDC funds) etc etc etc

I'm sort of laughing though at the difference between what you read and what I read on where it came from. My source was 'The Hill' for what that is worth. I don't know if that leans left or right, but the article was about Schumer's 8.5byn request for funds and did not read as pro or con to me.... What I read said 1.25byn was new money.... with the rest coming from existing health programs including $535mm from fighting Ebola

I got 'existing health programs' and you got 'heating and cooling for the poor'.

You forgot the 'such as'. Typical though for you to pick and choose the way you want to edit.

The administration is transferring $37 million to emergency funding for the coronavirus response from the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP, which funds heating for poor families.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/02/...us-funding

Elizabeth Warren proposed today a new bill diverting Wall money for the CDC funding. Works for me.
02-27-2020 05:20 PM
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Post: #36
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
Rare to see such a dispassionate and unbiased assessment.

“ ...typically Trumpian, which is to say: incoherent, disorganized, full of lies, and reminiscent, we assume, of that sinking feeling one gets after having unprotected sex with a porn star.”

“...the stock market, one of the only things he cares about. “

And so forth.

Opinion presented as fact.

I guess if you get your news from sources such as this...no wonder.

Plus, I absolutely hate the phrase “one of the only”. Makes no sense.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020 05:37 PM by OptimisticOwl.)
02-27-2020 05:35 PM
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Frizzy Owl Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 04:35 PM)mrbig Wrote:  Honest question, but do you have a medical, epidemiological, infectious disease, or public health background? If not, I'm not sure how you can come to this conclusion.
My conclusions are an informed opinion, and I arrive at them pretty much the same way you do, I imagine. How do you decide which presidential candidate will be best for the economy, if you're not an economist? How do you take a position on climate change if you're not a climatologist? Further, I know panic and overreaction when I see it, from experience.

Quote:I'm not saying everyone should panic. But I do think everyone should be following the news, listening to experts, and at least thinking about how to act if there is an outbreak in the USA.

What makes you think I'm not doing that?

The experts tell me that coronavirus isn't a very serious illness if you're not already sick, which I'm not. Objectively, it's no worse than flu, and certainly a lot less serious than Ebola.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020 05:47 PM by Frizzy Owl.)
02-27-2020 05:46 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 05:01 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:54 PM)ruowls Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:46 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:35 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I'm not saying everyone should panic. But I do think everyone should be following the news, listening to experts, and at least thinking about how to act if there is an outbreak in the USA.

I wouldn't listen a lot to news. There's no way NOT to panic if that is your source. I absolutely would listen to experts like the CDC etc in terms of facts, figures etc... but remember that their entire job is to play defense... and there is zero risk to them in being 'over-prepared'.
As to thinking about how to act...
now...
1) monitor your own health. You are much more at risk if you are otherwise compromised.
2) watch out for those with compromised immune systems just as you did/would through flu season.
3) practice good hygiene.

there are some other thoughts, but they would be more person/job specific.

as to what to do with a larger outbreak?
If you are not otherwise compromised or showing symptoms or have reason to think you are infected, DO NOT SEEK ATTENTION FROM HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS
1) they're busy caring for sick people 2) you would be going to a place where the virus is more prevalent..

Work from home if/as you can. Avoid crowds

beyond that, it depends on what you mean by larger. Healthy people who don't work in healthcare generally have little to worry about. Infants, the elderly and the compromised... masks and gloves etc etc etc

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/c...-symptoms/

Thanks, Dr. RU (for those that don't know, I mean literally RUOWLS, MD)

So if you had 17 year old heading to Japan this June . . . how concerned would you be at this point? From "wait and see" to "shut that trip down now and head to the ranch with water, Pearl and guns."

I'm in the wait and see camp. Wife is buying ammunition.

"It has a higher case-fatality ratio and a higher reproduction number than influenza – meaning it could spread more widely."
02-27-2020 06:02 PM
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ruowls Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 06:02 PM)ausowl Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 05:01 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:54 PM)ruowls Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:46 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:35 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I'm not saying everyone should panic. But I do think everyone should be following the news, listening to experts, and at least thinking about how to act if there is an outbreak in the USA.

I wouldn't listen a lot to news. There's no way NOT to panic if that is your source. I absolutely would listen to experts like the CDC etc in terms of facts, figures etc... but remember that their entire job is to play defense... and there is zero risk to them in being 'over-prepared'.
As to thinking about how to act...
now...
1) monitor your own health. You are much more at risk if you are otherwise compromised.
2) watch out for those with compromised immune systems just as you did/would through flu season.
3) practice good hygiene.

there are some other thoughts, but they would be more person/job specific.

as to what to do with a larger outbreak?
If you are not otherwise compromised or showing symptoms or have reason to think you are infected, DO NOT SEEK ATTENTION FROM HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS
1) they're busy caring for sick people 2) you would be going to a place where the virus is more prevalent..

Work from home if/as you can. Avoid crowds

beyond that, it depends on what you mean by larger. Healthy people who don't work in healthcare generally have little to worry about. Infants, the elderly and the compromised... masks and gloves etc etc etc

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/c...-symptoms/

Thanks, Dr. RU (for those that don't know, I mean literally RUOWLS, MD)

So if you had 17 year old heading to Japan this June . . . how concerned would you be at this point? From "wait and see" to "shut that trip down now and head to the ranch with water, Pearl and guns."

I'm in the wait and see camp. Wife is buying ammunition.

"It has a higher case-fatality ratio and a higher reproduction number than influenza – meaning it could spread more widely."

As a parent, concerned.
As a doctor, the illness seems to be comparable to the flu. The article referenced The Lancet in that the numbers aren't fully known because the final disposition of all cases has yet to be determined and there is likely under-reporting of the total number of infections. Both of these factors would change the case fatality number. With that said, the numbers likely would not deviate that much from where they are now. Traveling closer to origination area does put one in a higher concentrated area of infections and thus would increase the risk of morbidity and mortality. However, the increased risk on a per person basis would be negligible. It is to your advantage to wait until June to see how the more recent numbers change the risk. I just looked at numbers and China has 78,514 coronavirus cases, Japan 207, and US 60. So, the risk would be slightly higher in Japan vs. US but much better than in China. With all said, waiting to see if the numbers change would be wise. As a comparison, the US estimate for flu cases for 2019-20 is 29,000,000-43,000,000 cases and 10,000+ deaths. Also, it appears the Japan flu season is coming to an end as new cases are decreasing by over 60% per week as people are taking more preventative measures. The flu season ends in April in the US. Therefore, it might be safer to be in Japan in the next few months. Hope that helps.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020 07:03 PM by ruowls.)
02-27-2020 06:56 PM
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ausowl Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!)
(02-27-2020 06:56 PM)ruowls Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 06:02 PM)ausowl Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 05:01 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:54 PM)ruowls Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:46 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I wouldn't listen a lot to news. There's no way NOT to panic if that is your source. I absolutely would listen to experts like the CDC etc in terms of facts, figures etc... but remember that their entire job is to play defense... and there is zero risk to them in being 'over-prepared'.
As to thinking about how to act...
now...
1) monitor your own health. You are much more at risk if you are otherwise compromised.
2) watch out for those with compromised immune systems just as you did/would through flu season.
3) practice good hygiene.

there are some other thoughts, but they would be more person/job specific.

as to what to do with a larger outbreak?
If you are not otherwise compromised or showing symptoms or have reason to think you are infected, DO NOT SEEK ATTENTION FROM HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS
1) they're busy caring for sick people 2) you would be going to a place where the virus is more prevalent..

Work from home if/as you can. Avoid crowds

beyond that, it depends on what you mean by larger. Healthy people who don't work in healthcare generally have little to worry about. Infants, the elderly and the compromised... masks and gloves etc etc etc

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/c...-symptoms/

Thanks, Dr. RU (for those that don't know, I mean literally RUOWLS, MD)

So if you had 17 year old heading to Japan this June . . . how concerned would you be at this point? From "wait and see" to "shut that trip down now and head to the ranch with water, Pearl and guns."

I'm in the wait and see camp. Wife is buying ammunition.

"It has a higher case-fatality ratio and a higher reproduction number than influenza – meaning it could spread more widely."

As a parent, concerned.
As a doctor, the illness seems to be comparable to the flu. The article referenced The Lancet in that the numbers aren't fully known because the final disposition of all cases has yet to be determined and there is likely under-reporting of the total number of infections. Both of these factors would change the case fatality number. With that said, the numbers likely would not deviate that much from where they are now. Traveling closer to origination area does put one in a higher concentrated area of infections and thus would increase the risk of morbidity and mortality. However, the increased risk on a per person basis would be negligible. It is to your advantage to wait until June to see how the more recent numbers change the risk. I just looked at numbers and China has 78,514 coronavirus cases, Japan 207, and US 60. So, the risk would be slightly higher in Japan vs. US but much better than in China. With all said, waiting to see if the numbers change would be wise. As a comparison, the US estimate for flu cases for 2019-20 is 29,000,000-43,000,000 cases and 10,000+ deaths. Also, it appears the Japan flu season is coming to an end as new cases are decreasing by over 60% per week as people are taking more preventative measures. The flu season ends in April in the US. Therefore, it might be safer to be in Japan in the next few months. Hope that helps.

Much appreciated.
02-27-2020 10:10 PM
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