(03-07-2020 09:52 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 08:00 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 07:37 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 06:02 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  So, why should OU/UT forgo an opportunity to join the B1G/SEC to promote a Cali/Texhoma marriage?

You can not forgo something if the opportunity never comes.
If ESPN is indeed fixed on a P4, because we know as well as they, that the real money is in a playoff structure, they will not allow OU/UT to go to either the SEC or the B1G.
Pick 14 out of the 22 PAC and Big XII schools to form a new conference, the other 8 will have to do something else.

If the Big Ten and/or the SEC wanted to invite Texas and/or Oklahoma, do you think ESPN has any power whatsoever to stop them? Umm, NO! What could they do? In the case of the Big Ten, they literally have zero power because FOX can always take over media rights. In the SEC's case, the SEC can offer no additional money for UT/OU although the additional ratings and media exposure would still pay off for the schools even if they would have to accept a smaller share that they would be getting without them. Plus bringing Texas and Oklahoma could help the SEC schools who struggle with ticket sales sell more tickets. Could ESPN offer Texas and Oklahoma more money to stay with the Big 12 or move to the Pac-12 to keep them from the Big Ten/SEC? Yes, but that's paying lesser schools like Iowa State or Washington State more money. ESPN would be cutting their nose to spite their face.

Absolutely!
ESPN controls the money.

They control some of the money, but they are not all-powerful.

The SEC just gave their entire package to Disney. They could have taken the most valuable package in college sports and gone elsewhere, but they saw fit to go all in with Disney. If they did so without assurance that ESPN would aid/support the additions of Texas and Oklahoma then Greg Sankey and the rest of them deserved to be fired. But I doubt they're that stupid.

ESPN's ability to influence the Big Ten is minimal.

If ESPN wants to keep Texas and Oklahoma from moving at this point then their only real option is to pony up huge amounts of cash for the Big 12...something comparable to what the Big Ten and SEC are getting. Is that the most economical plan for Disney? No.

OR...

ESPN plans on using the Big 12 to acquire the core of the PAC 12 and then pay them competitively. If that's their plan then the ACC is on the chopping block because the Big Ten and SEC still have room to grow.

All that to say, ESPN has made promises to someone, somewhere. Change is coming.

(03-07-2020 04:44 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 09:52 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 08:00 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 07:37 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 06:02 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  So, why should OU/UT forgo an opportunity to join the B1G/SEC to promote a Cali/Texhoma marriage?

You can not forgo something if the opportunity never comes.
If ESPN is indeed fixed on a P4, because we know as well as they, that the real money is in a playoff structure, they will not allow OU/UT to go to either the SEC or the B1G.
Pick 14 out of the 22 PAC and Big XII schools to form a new conference, the other 8 will have to do something else.

If the Big Ten and/or the SEC wanted to invite Texas and/or Oklahoma, do you think ESPN has any power whatsoever to stop them? Umm, NO! What could they do? In the case of the Big Ten, they literally have zero power because FOX can always take over media rights. In the SEC's case, the SEC can offer no additional money for UT/OU although the additional ratings and media exposure would still pay off for the schools even if they would have to accept a smaller share that they would be getting without them. Plus bringing Texas and Oklahoma could help the SEC schools who struggle with ticket sales sell more tickets. Could ESPN offer Texas and Oklahoma more money to stay with the Big 12 or move to the Pac-12 to keep them from the Big Ten/SEC? Yes, but that's paying lesser schools like Iowa State or Washington State more money. ESPN would be cutting their nose to spite their face.

Absolutely!
ESPN controls the money.

They control some of the money, but they are not all-powerful.

The SEC just gave their entire package to Disney. They could have taken the most valuable package in college sports and gone elsewhere, but they saw fit to go all in with Disney. If they did so without assurance that ESPN would aid/support the additions of Texas and Oklahoma then Greg Sankey and the rest of them deserved to be fired. But I doubt they're that stupid.

ESPN's ability to influence the Big Ten is minimal.

If ESPN wants to keep Texas and Oklahoma from moving at this point then their only real option is to pony up huge amounts of cash for the Big 12...something comparable to what the Big Ten and SEC are getting. Is that the most economical plan for Disney? No.

OR...

ESPN plans on using the Big 12 to acquire the core of the PAC 12 and then pay them competitively. If that's their plan then the ACC is on the chopping block because the Big Ten and SEC still have room to grow.

All that to say, ESPN has made promises to someone, somewhere. Change is coming.

Most likely ESPN will move to protect both of their fully owned properties. The have a 50% investment in the Big 12 and own T3 rights for Kansas and Texas and will be going for T3 rights on Oklahoma in 2022 or before. If FOX retains OU's T3 rights that might be a tell as to the direction the Sooners will head. And recently ESPN acquired the rest of the Big 12's T3 rights for ESPN+.

ESPN and FOX split a lease on rights for the PAC.

If ESPN landed all of the PAC's rights, which I don't know that they need or want, I suppose they could work out a some kind of partial merger with the Big 12. But such a move doesn't monetize the value of UT or OU if they are involved.

There are a lot of possibilities that could be on the table. It's a we'll see event. But if Texas, Kansas, or Oklahoma move I'm sure ESPN will be a factor.

(03-07-2020 06:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 04:44 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 09:52 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 08:00 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 07:37 AM)XLance Wrote:  You can not forgo something if the opportunity never comes.
If ESPN is indeed fixed on a P4, because we know as well as they, that the real money is in a playoff structure, they will not allow OU/UT to go to either the SEC or the B1G.
Pick 14 out of the 22 PAC and Big XII schools to form a new conference, the other 8 will have to do something else.

If the Big Ten and/or the SEC wanted to invite Texas and/or Oklahoma, do you think ESPN has any power whatsoever to stop them? Umm, NO! What could they do? In the case of the Big Ten, they literally have zero power because FOX can always take over media rights. In the SEC's case, the SEC can offer no additional money for UT/OU although the additional ratings and media exposure would still pay off for the schools even if they would have to accept a smaller share that they would be getting without them. Plus bringing Texas and Oklahoma could help the SEC schools who struggle with ticket sales sell more tickets. Could ESPN offer Texas and Oklahoma more money to stay with the Big 12 or move to the Pac-12 to keep them from the Big Ten/SEC? Yes, but that's paying lesser schools like Iowa State or Washington State more money. ESPN would be cutting their nose to spite their face.

Absolutely!
ESPN controls the money.

They control some of the money, but they are not all-powerful.

The SEC just gave their entire package to Disney. They could have taken the most valuable package in college sports and gone elsewhere, but they saw fit to go all in with Disney. If they did so without assurance that ESPN would aid/support the additions of Texas and Oklahoma then Greg Sankey and the rest of them deserved to be fired. But I doubt they're that stupid.

ESPN's ability to influence the Big Ten is minimal.

If ESPN wants to keep Texas and Oklahoma from moving at this point then their only real option is to pony up huge amounts of cash for the Big 12...something comparable to what the Big Ten and SEC are getting. Is that the most economical plan for Disney? No.

OR...

ESPN plans on using the Big 12 to acquire the core of the PAC 12 and then pay them competitively. If that's their plan then the ACC is on the chopping block because the Big Ten and SEC still have room to grow.

All that to say, ESPN has made promises to someone, somewhere. Change is coming.

Most likely ESPN will move to protect both of their fully owned properties. The have a 50% investment in the Big 12 and own T3 rights for Kansas and Texas and will be going for T3 rights on Oklahoma in 2022 or before. If FOX retains OU's T3 rights that might be a tell as to the direction the Sooners will head. And recently ESPN acquired the rest of the Big 12's T3 rights for ESPN+.

ESPN and FOX split a lease on rights for the PAC.

If ESPN landed all of the PAC's rights, which I don't know that they need or want, I suppose they could work out a some kind of partial merger with the Big 12. But such a move doesn't monetize the value of UT or OU if they are involved.

There are a lot of possibilities that could be on the table. It's a we'll see event. But if Texas, Kansas, or Oklahoma move I'm sure ESPN will be a factor.

Assuming they have big plans for ESPN+, I could see them making a more concerted effort to acquire PAC rights. I don't necessarily expect them to pay a lot for them, but it would be useful to have those games available.

I think that's why they've had no issue doing that for the Big 12. It helps the sub rates.

But if ESPN moved to put Texas and Kansas in the SEC then Oklahoma and Iowa State in the Big Ten might work. Whatever's left of the Big 12...assuming they add a few G5 members...could form the backbone of college football coverage on ESPN+ along with some select games from the other leagues.

I wouldn't be shocked to see some PAC games in that arrangement. ESPN needs a late night game or two. FOX could use the same. After that, putting games on ESPN+ is probably useful.

(03-07-2020 08:54 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Assuming they have big plans for ESPN+, I could see them making a more concerted effort to acquire PAC rights. I don't necessarily expect them to pay a lot for them, but it would be useful to have those games available.

I think that's why they've had no issue doing that for the Big 12. It helps the sub rates.

But if ESPN moved to put Texas and Kansas in the SEC then Oklahoma and Iowa State in the Big Ten might work. Whatever's left of the Big 12...assuming they add a few G5 members...could form the backbone of college football coverage on ESPN+ along with some select games from the other leagues.

I wouldn't be shocked to see some PAC games in that arrangement. ESPN needs a late night game or two. FOX could use the same. After that, putting games on ESPN+ is probably useful.

Iowa State's worthless to the Big Ten.

(03-07-2020 08:54 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 06:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 04:44 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 09:52 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 08:00 AM)schmolik Wrote:  If the Big Ten and/or the SEC wanted to invite Texas and/or Oklahoma, do you think ESPN has any power whatsoever to stop them? Umm, NO! What could they do? In the case of the Big Ten, they literally have zero power because FOX can always take over media rights. In the SEC's case, the SEC can offer no additional money for UT/OU although the additional ratings and media exposure would still pay off for the schools even if they would have to accept a smaller share that they would be getting without them. Plus bringing Texas and Oklahoma could help the SEC schools who struggle with ticket sales sell more tickets. Could ESPN offer Texas and Oklahoma more money to stay with the Big 12 or move to the Pac-12 to keep them from the Big Ten/SEC? Yes, but that's paying lesser schools like Iowa State or Washington State more money. ESPN would be cutting their nose to spite their face.

Absolutely!
ESPN controls the money.

They control some of the money, but they are not all-powerful.

The SEC just gave their entire package to Disney. They could have taken the most valuable package in college sports and gone elsewhere, but they saw fit to go all in with Disney. If they did so without assurance that ESPN would aid/support the additions of Texas and Oklahoma then Greg Sankey and the rest of them deserved to be fired. But I doubt they're that stupid.

ESPN's ability to influence the Big Ten is minimal.

If ESPN wants to keep Texas and Oklahoma from moving at this point then their only real option is to pony up huge amounts of cash for the Big 12...something comparable to what the Big Ten and SEC are getting. Is that the most economical plan for Disney? No.

OR...

ESPN plans on using the Big 12 to acquire the core of the PAC 12 and then pay them competitively. If that's their plan then the ACC is on the chopping block because the Big Ten and SEC still have room to grow.

All that to say, ESPN has made promises to someone, somewhere. Change is coming.

Most likely ESPN will move to protect both of their fully owned properties. The have a 50% investment in the Big 12 and own T3 rights for Kansas and Texas and will be going for T3 rights on Oklahoma in 2022 or before. If FOX retains OU's T3 rights that might be a tell as to the direction the Sooners will head. And recently ESPN acquired the rest of the Big 12's T3 rights for ESPN+.

ESPN and FOX split a lease on rights for the PAC.

If ESPN landed all of the PAC's rights, which I don't know that they need or want, I suppose they could work out a some kind of partial merger with the Big 12. But such a move doesn't monetize the value of UT or OU if they are involved.

There are a lot of possibilities that could be on the table. It's a we'll see event. But if Texas, Kansas, or Oklahoma move I'm sure ESPN will be a factor.

Assuming they have big plans for ESPN+, I could see them making a more concerted effort to acquire PAC rights. I don't necessarily expect them to pay a lot for them, but it would be useful to have those games available.

I think that's why they've had no issue doing that for the Big 12. It helps the sub rates.

But if ESPN moved to put Texas and Kansas in the SEC then Oklahoma and Iowa State in the Big Ten might work. Whatever's left of the Big 12...assuming they add a few G5 members...could form the backbone of college football coverage on ESPN+ along with some select games from the other leagues.

I wouldn't be shocked to see some PAC games in that arrangement. ESPN needs a late night game or two. FOX could use the same. After that, putting games on ESPN+ is probably useful.

Let's assume that ESPN has that much money to burn. Why not go after the more valuable rights of the Big 10?

I think the game will be corporate. I think eventually FOX goes after the PAC rights and ESPN and FOX decide about the placement of the key Big 12 pieces.

(03-07-2020 09:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Let's assume that ESPN has that much money to burn. Why not go after the more valuable rights of the Big 10?

I think the game will be corporate. I think eventually FOX goes after the PAC rights and ESPN and FOX decide about the placement of the key Big 12 pieces.

There is something called the NFL that ESPN (and FOX and CBS) has to save up money for. I'm actually surprised the SEC contract was negotiated before the NFL. If you're any of these networks (NBC too) that's your first priority. CBS might have passed on the SEC to save up money for the NFL.

(03-07-2020 09:33 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 09:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Let's assume that ESPN has that much money to burn. Why not go after the more valuable rights of the Big 10?

I think the game will be corporate. I think eventually FOX goes after the PAC rights and ESPN and FOX decide about the placement of the key Big 12 pieces.

There is something called the NFL that ESPN (and FOX and CBS) has to save up money for. I'm actually surprised the SEC contract was negotiated before the NFL. If you're any of these networks (NBC too) that's your first priority. CBS might have passed on the SEC to save up money for the NFL.

CBS passed on the SEC because when they offered 300 million and ABC countered with 335-345 million they couldn't afford it. They aren't monetized like Disney and were in over their heads. And that was before the FOX offer in January which I believe ABC/ESPN/Disney topped by renegotiating the whole SEC package T1/T2/T3, but we'll likely have to wait until the SEC's Spring meeting to find out what the details actually are.

I understand that Disney is getting ready to throw a ridiculous sum at the NFL and they may be dickering for a key announcer as well.

So they have a reason for all of this and I think it probably centers around their recent purchases and their packaging of Disney+ and ESPN+.

ABC/ESPN is going to having the biggest SEC game of the week every week and the best Big Ten game every other week plus they’ve got plenty of T1 inventory from the ACC not to mention all the T2 and T3 stuff they own.

I don’t see the need to keep overpaying for Big 12 content especially if ABC/ESPN is able to consolidate their best properties into the media deals they already own.

Meanwhile I see FOX’s main objective as gaining more of the Big Ten content while having PAC 12 content on the side.

In some ways I think going to 4 primary conferences could really be beneficial to the Networks. ABC/ESPN will have the client conferences that they work with and Fox will have theirs. When rights come up for bid, unless a network is dissatisfied with the content they are getting and wants to drop a conference and pick up a different one there’s not really anyone else out there a conference can shop their content to. Everyone else is at capacity and CBS is squeezed out of college football.

NBC is always going to be a small player and the ND deal is all they e ever shown interest in. I think CBS is positioning themselves to have the cash on hand to get exactly the NFL content they want. If they still have money left over they may jump back into the college game for a T1 package. They’re the ones I can see coming in to prop up the Big 12 and essentially purchase a package that’s lot of Texas and Oklahoma with an occasional game that features neither.

(03-07-2020 10:10 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  ABC/ESPN is going to having the biggest SEC game of the week every week and the best Big Ten game every other week plus they’ve got plenty of T1 inventory from the ACC not to mention all the T2 and T3 stuff they own.

I don’t see the need to keep overpaying for Big 12 content especially if ABC/ESPN is able to consolidate their best properties into the media deals they already own.

Meanwhile I see FOX’s main objective as gaining more of the Big Ten content while having PAC 12 content on the side.

In some ways I think going to 4 primary conferences could really be beneficial to the Networks. ABC/ESPN will have the client conferences that they work with and Fox will have theirs. When rights come up for bid, unless a network is dissatisfied with the content they are getting and wants to drop a conference and pick up a different one there’s not really anyone else out there a conference can shop their content to. Everyone else is at capacity and CBS is squeezed out of college football.

NBC is always going to be a small player and the ND deal is all they e ever shown interest in. I think CBS is positioning themselves to have the cash on hand to get exactly the NFL content they want. If they still have money left over they may jump back into the college game for a T1 package. They’re the ones I can see coming in to prop up the Big 12 and essentially purchase a package that’s lot of Texas and Oklahoma with an occasional game that features neither.

IMO, without the data/analytics available to the networks, nearly all speculation as far as contract values beyond SEC>ACC or ACC>Indy Notre Dame is pointless. What's the replacement product for NBC if they drop ND? What's the value to Disney of being able to cross promote from ABC to the ESPN networks and vice versa? Is the SEC on ABC networks worth more, to Disney given cross promotional opportunities, than it is to CBS? I'd guess yes.

But we don't know those facts. I'd bet that CBS made a tough decision to give up the SEC T1. What are they gonna replace it with? Monster truck rallies and Cindy Crawford makeup commercials is my guess.

The decisions are being made with 1) the overall financial health of the Company involved and 2) the financial viability of a particular timeslot and potential content replacements.

I'd guess, based upon recent moves, that CBS is in a far worse financial position than is Disney. jmho

(03-07-2020 09:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  So they have a reason for all of this and I think it probably centers around their recent purchases and their packaging of Disney+ and ESPN+.

Disney told investors at their annual meeting that they were planning -- not just preparing in case of contingency, but planning -- to lose hundreds of millions a year for a few years to build up Disney+ and ESPN+. They're going to spend that much money because they're going to acquire a ton of new content. So I think that Disney is going to spend a lot over the next few years to acquire content for ESPN+, likely including more college sports content as well as pro content, and possibly paying a premium to one or more conferences and pro leagues to move a significant amount of content to ESPN+ that is now on "cable".

(03-07-2020 09:33 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 09:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Let's assume that ESPN has that much money to burn. Why not go after the more valuable rights of the Big 10?

I think the game will be corporate. I think eventually FOX goes after the PAC rights and ESPN and FOX decide about the placement of the key Big 12 pieces.

There is something called the NFL that ESPN (and FOX and CBS) has to save up money for. I'm actually surprised the SEC contract was negotiated before the NFL. If you're any of these networks (NBC too) that's your first priority. CBS might have passed on the SEC to save up money for the NFL.

The NFL is on another level when it comes to revenue.

If a network needs to pass on the SEC or any college conference in order to save money then there's no chance they have enough in the first place. The difference between winning a prime NFL package will not be a few million a year.

In other words, it's all about ROI. An NFL package will provide greater ROI than a college conference therefore a network will spend more.

(03-08-2020 12:35 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(03-07-2020 09:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  So they have a reason for all of this and I think it probably centers around their recent purchases and their packaging of Disney+ and ESPN+.

Disney told investors at their annual meeting that they were planning -- not just preparing in case of contingency, but planning -- to lose hundreds of millions a year for a few years to build up Disney+ and ESPN+. They're going to spend that much money because they're going to acquire a ton of new content. So I think that Disney is going to spend a lot over the next few years to acquire content for ESPN+, likely including more college sports content as well as pro content, and possibly paying a premium to one or more conferences and pro leagues to move a significant amount of content to ESPN+ that is now on "cable".

That probably means they'll want long term contracts too so they can predict costs into the era of profitability.