It was on CBS sport net

FINAL PROJECTIONS

No change in the top 8 seeds, just some movement and 9, 10, 11. This would bring EMU back into NIU's side of the bracket if NIU maintains the 3 seed. Could after all said and done, EMU get that 11 seed, beat Kent, and have a shot to avenge their heartbreaker to NIU in the quarterfinals? Basically I think it might come down to who do you want to face in the quarters, Kent State with NIU as a 3 seed or (Buffalo) if NIU is a 4 seed.

Scenarios:

* NIU will be a 3 or 4 seed.

* NIU is a 3 seed if NIU beats BSU and a 4 seed if NIU loses to BSU

NIU
Projected Conference Wins: 11.6 (12)
Current Power Ranking: #8
Projected Seed: #3
Projected First MAC Tourney Game: Quarterfinals in Cleveland, OH #3 NIU vs #6 Kent State/#11 Eastern Michigan
Chance to reach semifinals: 40.5%
Chance to reach finals: 15.0%
Chance to win MAC tourney: 5.5%

Rest of year mock lines:

Ball State, NIU by 1.5

Projected wins in conference

1. Akron 13.7 (14)
2. Bowling Green 12.7 (13)
3. NIU 11.6 (12)
4. Ball State 10.4 (10)
5. Buffalo 10.3 (10)
6. Kent State 9.3 (9)
7. Toledo 7.7 (8)
8. Ohio 7.5 (8)
9. Central Michigan 6.7 (7)
10. Eastern Michigan 6.3 (6)
11. WMU 6.3 (6)
12. Miami-OH 5.3 (5)

Projected Seeding (Seeding based on following outcomes Friday)

NIU over Ball State (55% chance)
BGSU over Buffalo (66% chance)
Akron over Kent State (71% chance)
Toledo over Eastern Michigan (74% chance)
Central Michigan over Western Michigan (69% chance)
Ohio over Miami-OH (54%chance)

1. Akron
2. BGSU
3. NIU
4. Buffalo *
5. Ball State *
6. Kent State
7. Toledo **
8. Ohio **
9. CMU
10. WMU ***
11. EMU ***
12. Miami-OH

* Buffalo/Ball State Tiereaker
Tiebreak 1 Head to Head -- Split Season Series
Tiebreak 2 Record vs #1 Akron ---- Ball State 0-1, Buffalo 1-1
Projected tiebreak winner: Buffalo

** Toledo/Ohio tiebreaker
Tiebreak 1 Head to Head -- Toledo defeated Ohio
Projected tiebreak winner: Toledo

** EMU/WMU tiebreaker
Tiebreak 1 Head to Head -- Split Season Series
Tiebreak 2: Record vs #1 Akron --- WMU 0-2, EMU 0-2
Record vs #2 BGSU --- WMU 0-1, EMU 0-1
Record vs #3 NIU ---- WMU 1-1, EMU 0-2
Projected tiebreak winner: Western Michigan

Chances of NIU finishing with the following number of conference wins:

11. 44.6%
12. 55.4%

Mock Point Spreads of NIU vs Opponents on a Neutral Floor

Akron, Zips by 5.5
BGSU, Falcons by 4.5
Buffalo, Bulls by 4
Ball State, Cardinals by 2
Kent State, Golden Flashes by 3.5
Toledo, Rockets by 1.5
Ohio, Bobcats by 1
Eastern Michigan, Huskies by 1.5
Central Michigan, Huskies by 3.5
Western Michigan, Huskies by 5
Miami-OH, Huskies by 4


Percent Chances to Win MAC Tourney

1. Akron 24.4%
2. Bowling Green 20.4%
3. Buffalo 16.0%
4. Kent State 12.3%
5. Ball State 7.8%
6. Toledo 7.1%
7. Northern Illinois 5.5%
8. Ohio 4.7%
9. Eastern Michigan 1.0%
10. Central Michigan 0.3%
11. Miami-OH 0.2%
12. Western Michigan 0.2%

(03-03-2020 11:09 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  FINAL PROJECTIONS

No change in the top 8 seeds, just some movement and 9, 10, 11. This would bring EMU back into NIU's side of the bracket if NIU maintains the 3 seed. Could after all said and done, EMU get that 11 seed, beat Kent, and have a shot to avenge their heartbreaker to NIU in the quarterfinals? Basically I think it might come down to who do you want to face in the quarters, Kent State with NIU as a 3 seed or (Buffalo) if NIU is a 4 seed.

Scenarios:

* NIU will be a 3 or 4 seed.

* NIU is a 3 seed if NIU beats BSU and a 4 seed if NIU loses to BSU

NIU
Projected Conference Wins: 11.6 (12)
Current Power Ranking: #8
Projected Seed: #3
Projected First MAC Tourney Game: Quarterfinals in Cleveland, OH #3 NIU vs #6 Kent State/#11 Eastern Michigan
Chance to reach semifinals: 40.5%
Chance to reach finals: 15.0%
Chance to win MAC tourney: 5.5%

Rest of year mock lines:

Ball State, NIU by 1.5

Projected wins in conference

1. Akron 13.7 (14)
2. Bowling Green 12.7 (13)
3. NIU 11.6 (12)
4. Ball State 10.4 (10)
5. Buffalo 10.3 (10)
6. Kent State 9.3 (9)
7. Toledo 7.7 (8)
8. Ohio 7.5 (8)
9. Central Michigan 6.7 (7)
10. Eastern Michigan 6.3 (6)
11. WMU 6.3 (6)
12. Miami-OH 5.3 (5)

Projected Seeding (Seeding based on following outcomes Friday)

NIU over Ball State (55% chance)
BGSU over Buffalo (66% chance)
Akron over Kent State (71% chance)
Toledo over Eastern Michigan (74% chance)
Central Michigan over Western Michigan (69% chance)
Ohio over Miami-OH (54%chance)

1. Akron
2. BGSU
3. NIU
4. Buffalo *
5. Ball State *
6. Kent State
7. Toledo **
8. Ohio **
9. CMU
10. WMU ***
11. EMU ***
12. Miami-OH

* Buffalo/Ball State Tiereaker
Tiebreak 1 Head to Head -- Split Season Series
Tiebreak 2 Record vs #1 Akron ---- Ball State 0-1, Buffalo 1-1
Projected tiebreak winner: Buffalo

** Toledo/Ohio tiebreaker
Tiebreak 1 Head to Head -- Toledo defeated Ohio
Projected tiebreak winner: Toledo

** EMU/WMU tiebreaker
Tiebreak 1 Head to Head -- Split Season Series
Tiebreak 2: Record vs #1 Akron --- WMU 0-2, EMU 0-2
Record vs #2 BGSU --- WMU 0-1, EMU 0-1
Record vs #3 NIU ---- WMU 1-1, EMU 0-2
Projected tiebreak winner: Western Michigan

Chances of NIU finishing with the following number of conference wins:

11. 44.6%
12. 55.4%

Mock Point Spreads of NIU vs Opponents on a Neutral Floor

Akron, Zips by 5.5
BGSU, Falcons by 4.5
Buffalo, Bulls by 4
Ball State, Cardinals by 2
Kent State, Golden Flashes by 3.5
Toledo, Rockets by 1.5
Ohio, Bobcats by 1
Eastern Michigan, Huskies by 1.5
Central Michigan, Huskies by 3.5
Western Michigan, Huskies by 5
Miami-OH, Huskies by 4


Percent Chances to Win MAC Tourney

1. Akron 24.4%
2. Bowling Green 20.4%
3. Buffalo 16.0%
4. Kent State 12.3%
5. Ball State 7.8%
6. Toledo 7.1%
7. Northern Illinois 5.5%
8. Ohio 4.7%
9. Eastern Michigan 1.0%
10. Central Michigan 0.3%
11. Miami-OH 0.2%
12. Western Michigan 0.2%

MD---curious on your take---which do you fear more?

Being a #3 seed and playing #6 Kent State in the quarters or,
Being a #4 seed and playing #5 Buffalo in the quarters......

Isn’t NIU 3-0 against those teams?

Why would you fear any of them?

(03-04-2020 09:28 AM)7 Wrote:  Isn’t NIU 3-0 against those teams?

Why would you fear any of them?

When Kent State and Buffalo are on opposite sides of the bracket and playing each other in the championship game you will understand why I fear them. Personally, I'd rather play Buffalo, but not be on Akron's side of the bracket, but pretty sure that won't/can't happen.

Feeling pretty good after last night's performance but WAY TOO much can and will happen in this conference tournament.

(03-04-2020 10:05 AM)Milwaukee Pilot Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 09:28 AM)7 Wrote:  Isn’t NIU 3-0 against those teams?

Why would you fear any of them?

When Kent State and Buffalo are on opposite sides of the bracket and playing each other in the championship game you will understand why I fear them. Personally, I'd rather play Buffalo, but not be on Akron's side of the bracket, but pretty sure that won't/can't happen.

Feeling pretty good after last night's performance but WAY TOO much can and will happen in this conference tournament.

I probably would prefer Kent State for one reason, Jordan. He can take over games in stretches and has been through the post season battles. It's really a toss up though between a preference. Kent might have found their game finally. If it did lay out like this bracket, I do feel better about the matchups for NIU as a whole and avoiding Akron is a plus like you mention

This talk of playing Akron or BG is sure to jinx us for our first game in the quarters. LOL

(03-04-2020 12:24 PM)DiehardHuskie Wrote:  This talk of playing Akron or BG is sure to jinx us for our first game in the quarters. LOL

I say no jinx because no one expects NIU to even win the first game as they will be pretty heavy underdogs even in the quarterfinals.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MACSports/sta...1973650433

GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(03-06-2020 10:24 PM)pantone1935 Wrote:  https://mobile.twitter.com/MACSports/sta...1973650433

GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Huksies needed that win, worst case bracket layout now

Well they didn't get it. NIU is #4 seed, gets a bye, has winning record overall and in MAC ... a lot more than we were hoping early on. What was your prediction at season start? I'm beginning to think some people put getting rid of MM ahead of the team and its accomplishments. For the record, I also think NIU can do better than MM, but let's be where we're at before we decide where we should be next year. Enjoy now!

(03-06-2020 10:40 PM)pvk75 Wrote:  Well they didn't get it. NIU is #4 seed, gets a bye, has winning record overall and MAC ... a lot more than we were hoping early on. What was your prediction at season start?

NIU definitely over achieved, just disappointed how this bracket shook out in the end. Buffalo might be the most dangerous team in the tournament right now

NIU was pre-season picked to finish 2nd in the MAC West and that’s exactly where they finished. This game probably cost German MAC player of the year.

They have to play Miami-O before us. Maybe game v Buffalo will be their big game for the year. Stranger things have happened this year (also, I was amending my comment while you were posting, sorry).

(03-06-2020 10:46 PM)dc1 Wrote:  NIU was pre-season picked to finish 2nd in the MAC West and that’s exactly where they finished. This game probably cost German MAC player of the year.

It put out any faint hope, but imo, it was going to LCJ from Akron with a 90 percent confidence level

(03-06-2020 10:46 PM)dc1 Wrote:  NIU was pre-season picked to finish 2nd in the MAC West and that’s exactly where they finished. This game probably cost German MAC player of the year.

Yeah. I hate to say it but I think you're right.

In case anyone thinks that is conference tournament isn’t going to be a crapshoot, please see the Missouri Valley Tournament. Going into the semi finals today....seeds remaining:

#4
#8

#7
#6

Wouldn’t that be nice in the MAC? (And don’t discount the possibility)

I was real disappointed with the game last night, but NIU has shown the ability to play great games which can beat anyone in the conference and also drop some real turds and lose to anyone. They were always going to need to somehow put 3 great ones together. I don't have much confidence, but they've shown some things this year to prove me wrong.

I agree with MD, this did end up about as bad of bracket as it could have been 10 days ago, but I don't think it matters too much.

Figure out how how to start and end games and they could make a run.