(01-30-2020 09:20 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(01-30-2020 01:06 PM)Bearcatdh58 Wrote:  Now that that is settled, Air Force, Boise, and CSU are up in the next two years. One or all three. ?

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Do you do that or do you sit on 11 and hold out hope that by 2026 the CFP expands andf becomes more inclusive and wait for the Big 12 Non-event? BYU is the most valuable property. Does waiting make more sense?

No. We need to go about the business of making the AAC more valuable and more popular. Waiting.... Just look what happened to my school in 2007 when we decided to "wait" on that BigEast invite.

Action. Always action.

BYU is not coming to the AAC. The B12 is not breaking up, nor is it likely to expand and even if it did, it would only add 2.
Th B12 has maxed out the available revenue stream. The AAC does not have any good choices to make right now. If the rule change does not happen, the AAC will settle on a team, and it is unlikely that will be a MWC team. So we as fans better get used to the idea of getting excited over Buffalo/UAB/ODU/Ga St, ect as newbie #12.

(01-31-2020 07:43 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  BYU is not coming to the AAC. The B12 is not breaking up, nor is it likely to expand and even if it did, it would only add 2.
Th B12 has maxed out the available revenue stream. The AAC does not have any good choices to make right now. If the rule change does not happen, the AAC will settle on a team, and it is unlikely that will be a MWC team. So we as fans better get used to the idea of getting excited over Buffalo/UAB/ODU/Ga St, ect as newbie #12.

They aren't going to just assign us a team if we don't have 12. Invite/acceptance works both ways. I think, worst case scenario, we end up with a disgruntled MWC team if Boise gets what they want.

(01-30-2020 07:07 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  Posters on the Byu board seem to think they're getting around 8.5 million. The AAC was offered what 10 million with a gor? Their contract sounds like a holding pattern type of a deal until ESPN decides if they want to go all in with the AAC Boise and Byu and either Airforce or SDSU. In other words none of us are getting what we could get if ESPN decided to offer us all 11-12 million for the final worthwhile entity,,,,with a gor of course.

Those posters dramatically overstate what BYU gets. It’s between 4-5M per year over the prior contract depending on how many games get picked up and on what networks ESPN airs them. Similar parameters on the new deal but higher pay. Probably taking the prior terms and adding an inflation adjustment to it.

The new deal will be “more” per their AD yesterday which makes me assume it will be at worst similar to the AAC and ahead of the MWC. I don’t seenthere being much financial incentive for them to jump to the AAC or MWC. However I could see BSU football only join the aac.

(01-30-2020 12:57 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Interesting that its just a 6 year deal.

Aye, and the fact that the MWC did the same, and that some AAC schools didn't permit a GOR, suggests that BYU and a lot of MWC and AAC schools are anticipating the possibility or probability of another round of conference realignment.

Either that, and/or perhaps the networks themselves didn't want to agree to more than a 6 year contract with BYU and the MWC, given that same possibility.

The question then becomes: If there is going to be another conference realignment in 2025-2026, how many teams and conferences will be affected?

(01-30-2020 07:35 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  At least 5 teams wouldn't sign a GOR.

Heading into 2024 realignment? Sure.

Once those dreams are crushed, I think schools would be more willing. If it meant $2-3M per year more.

(01-31-2020 09:53 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(01-31-2020 07:43 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  BYU is not coming to the AAC. The B12 is not breaking up, nor is it likely to expand and even if it did, it would only add 2.
Th B12 has maxed out the available revenue stream. The AAC does not have any good choices to make right now. If the rule change does not happen, the AAC will settle on a team, and it is unlikely that will be a MWC team. So we as fans better get used to the idea of getting excited over Buffalo/UAB/ODU/Ga St, ect as newbie #12.

They aren't going to just assign us a team if we don't have 12. Invite/acceptance works both ways. I think, worst case scenario, we end up with a disgruntled MWC team if Boise gets what they want.

Where did I say anyone assigns us a team? I simply don't see any MWC school being in a hurry to jump ship. Extra Travel would eat up much of the raise they would get. So the choices in the east are limited, we have to invite and they have to accept, and any of the schools I listed would be jumping all over themselves for the chance. I don't think that will be true of most or all of the MWC.

(01-31-2020 02:48 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(01-30-2020 07:35 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  At least 5 teams wouldn't sign a GOR.

Heading into 2024 realignment? Sure.

Once those dreams are crushed, I think schools would be more willing. If it meant $2-3M per year more.

They may well be more inclined to include GOR in their broadcasting agreements after the P5s renew theirs in 2026 under each of the these possible scenarios:

1) P5 conferences don't add any G5/Indy schools.

Result: No change. The AAC schools would have a stronger incentive to include GOR in their next broadcasting agreement, and to pursue full P6/A6 status.

2) P5 conferences - most likely Big-12 - add 2-4 G5/Indy schools.

Result: AAC and/or MWC reload, adding 2-4 G5/Indy schools.

Some possibility of an 18 school MWC-AAC merger (MWC and AAC divisions).

3) Minor Realignment: 2-4 Big-12 schools switch conferences, and Big-12 reloads with 2 or 4 (possibly 6) AAC & MWC schools.

Result: AAC and/or MWC reload, adding 2, 4, or 6 G5/Indy schools.

Possibility of a 16 or 18 school MWC-AAC merger (MWC/AAC divisions).

4) Major Realignment: SEC, ACC, or B1G expand to 16 teams, PAC-12 expands to 14 teams, Big-12 implodes/rebuilds with 6+ AAC/MWC teams or merges with the AAC or MWC.

Result: AAC and MWC lose a total of 6 or 8 teams.

Possibilities:

The AAC and MWC both implode and merge or reload with G5/Indies. The MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt implode, reload, or merge.

Either the AAC or the MWC implodes; the survivor reloads with G5/Indy teams, including remnants of the imploded conference. The MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt implode, reload, or merge.

If I were Aresco, I would say to ESPN: "Look, it's very simple. You/WE invite BSU, Air Force, and BYU to join as all sports members for a true Western Pod in the Western division, move Memphis or Tulane east. We get Power conference money ($15MM per/per), WE GET CALLED a power conference, and an auto-birth to the Cotton, and we all will sign a 12 year GOR. Other than that, we will take Uconn's share and split it up amongst the remaining 12 members per the contract"
If any team in the American isn't happy with that, you are stuuuuu-pid.

(01-31-2020 07:43 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  BYU is not coming to the AAC. The B12 is not breaking up, nor is it likely to expand and even if it did, it would only add 2.
Th B12 has maxed out the available revenue stream. The AAC does not have any good choices to make right now. If the rule change does not happen, the AAC will settle on a team, and it is unlikely that will be a MWC team. So we as fans better get used to the idea of getting excited over Buffalo/UAB/ODU/Ga St, ect as newbie #12.

You sound disappointed. Where was UCF before the AAC.

(02-01-2020 05:39 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(01-31-2020 07:43 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  BYU is not coming to the AAC. The B12 is not breaking up, nor is it likely to expand and even if it did, it would only add 2.
Th B12 has maxed out the available revenue stream. The AAC does not have any good choices to make right now. If the rule change does not happen, the AAC will settle on a team, and it is unlikely that will be a MWC team. So we as fans better get used to the idea of getting excited over Buffalo/UAB/ODU/Ga St, ect as newbie #12.

You sound disappointed. Where was UCF before the AAC.

Not disappointed, Ucf was in CUSA and I would not prefer we go back. But I just don't see us or any G5 schools moving up. I don't for a minute think the P4 will raid the B12 this go round, nor do I think the B12 will expand. There is no $$ advantage P5 expansion at this time.

Which means UCF will be in the AAC for quite a while. Had the MWC gotten a TV deal below 3 mil per team, raiding them for 1 to 3 teams would be quite possible, but is much less likely with 3.5+ per school. So the only choices we have are G3. That doesn't mean one of those schools can't work out just fine, it just means that is what it is. ESPN does not have to change anything for 12 years, And the MWC may well further cut our advantage in 6.

(02-01-2020 09:03 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(02-01-2020 05:39 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(01-31-2020 07:43 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  BYU is not coming to the AAC. The B12 is not breaking up, nor is it likely to expand and even if it did, it would only add 2.
Th B12 has maxed out the available revenue stream. The AAC does not have any good choices to make right now. If the rule change does not happen, the AAC will settle on a team, and it is unlikely that will be a MWC team. So we as fans better get used to the idea of getting excited over Buffalo/UAB/ODU/Ga St, ect as newbie #12.

You sound disappointed. Where was UCF before the AAC.

Not disappointed, Ucf was in CUSA and I would not prefer we go back. But I just don't see us or any G5 schools moving up. I don't for a minute think the P4 will raid the B12 this go round, nor do I think the B12 will expand. There is no $$ advantage P5 expansion at this time.

Which means UCF will be in the AAC for quite a while. Had the MWC gotten a TV deal below 3 mil per team, raiding them for 1 to 3 teams would be quite possible, but is much less likely with 3.5+ per school. So the only choices we have are G3. That doesn't mean one of those schools can't work out just fine, it just means that is what it is. ESPN does not have to change anything for 12 years, And the MWC may well further cut our advantage in 6.

AFA might be more interested in raising their nationwide TV exposure in the AAC than they are in hanging on to their MWC front range rivals. They can easily play CSU & Wyoming OOC on a rotating basis using the annual OOC spot currently used on Navy.

The WAC would take the AFA Olympic sports in a heartbeat if they wanted to join the AAC as football only.

(01-31-2020 01:32 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(01-30-2020 09:20 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(01-30-2020 01:06 PM)Bearcatdh58 Wrote:  Now that that is settled, Air Force, Boise, and CSU are up in the next two years. One or all three. ?

Sent from my Moto E (4) Plus using CSNbbs mobile app

Do you do that or do you sit on 11 and hold out hope that by 2026 the CFP expands andf becomes more inclusive and wait for the Big 12 Non-event? BYU is the most valuable property. Does waiting make more sense?

No. We need to go about the business of making the AAC more valuable and more popular. Waiting.... Just look what happened to my school in 2007 when we decided to "wait" on that BigEast invite.

Action. Always action.

In the absence of orders, attack!

(01-30-2020 01:07 PM)bearcat29 Wrote:  

(01-30-2020 12:58 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  

(01-30-2020 12:56 PM)usffan Wrote:  Lest anybody was holding out hope they'd be a potential #12 for football. No financial terms disclosed yet...

https://www.deseret.com/sports/2020/1/30...tom-holmoe

USFFan

I've come to the conclusion that BYU cares much more about it's pride than actual football success. They'll stay independent forever in order to avoid being lower than Utah in their own minds.

This.

Also, they are better off as an Independent (-the access bowl spot).
They get good money, their schedule is solid and if B12 calls, they are ready.

Are they not ready for the big 12 (ain’t gonna happen but I’ll play along) if they join the AAC as well? Perhaps win a couple conference titles, play in some bigger post season games? Make the NY6 as the AAC champ? That would seem to help their case for the B12 if it ever came back around.

They are irrelevant now with no chance for the NY6. In the AAC they can potentially win more (not as brutal of a schedule), maybe make more money, and have championships to play for. Their schedules are pretty brutal as an Indy.

Look for more 6-6 and trips to the Potato bowl for BYU. No one can survive and thrive as an independent. Except maybe Notre Dame and I think they’ve proven not to be nearly as competitive or relevant since 1988.

(02-01-2020 04:04 PM)First Mate Wrote:  

(01-30-2020 01:07 PM)bearcat29 Wrote:  

(01-30-2020 12:58 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  

(01-30-2020 12:56 PM)usffan Wrote:  Lest anybody was holding out hope they'd be a potential #12 for football. No financial terms disclosed yet...

https://www.deseret.com/sports/2020/1/30...tom-holmoe

USFFan

I've come to the conclusion that BYU cares much more about it's pride than actual football success. They'll stay independent forever in order to avoid being lower than Utah in their own minds.

This.

Also, they are better off as an Independent (-the access bowl spot).
They get good money, their schedule is solid and if B12 calls, they are ready.

Are they not ready for the big 12 (ain’t gonna happen but I’ll play along) if they join the AAC as well? Perhaps win a couple conference titles, play in some bigger post season games? Make the NY6 as the AAC champ? That would seem to help their case for the B12 if it ever came back around.

They are irrelevant now with no chance for the NY6. In the AAC they can potentially win more (not as brutal of a schedule), maybe make more money, and have championships to play for. Their schedules are pretty brutal as an Indy.

Look for more 6-6 and trips to the Potato bowl for BYU. No one can survive and thrive as an independent. Except maybe Notre Dame and I think they’ve proven not to be nearly as competitive or relevant since 1988.

BYU is locked into Sofi Hawaii Bowl/Indepence Bowl in alternating years, with allowances to go to Cheeze It if they are really good and primary conference cant fill 1 side, 1 times instead of each. 4 of 6 if elligable will be , probably all 6.

(01-31-2020 05:38 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  If I were Aresco, I would say to ESPN: "Look, it's very simple. You/WE invite BSU, Air Force, and BYU to join as all sports members for a true Western Pod in the Western division, move Memphis or Tulane east. We get Power conference money ($15MM per/per), WE GET CALLED a power conference, and an auto-birth to the Cotton, and we all will sign a 12 year GOR. Other than that, we will take Uconn's share and split it up amongst the remaining 12 members per the contract"
If any team in the American isn't happy with that, you are stuuuuu-pid.

So, if I have this straight--you want to tell ESPN that if they tear up a deal where they have the current 11 members (+ Wichita and another full member TBD) for a price of 83 million, you will give them 3 extra western teams for the cool bargain price of $210 million along with a GOR. Im fairly confident that ESPN will not be tempted by that offer in any way.

(02-01-2020 09:03 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(02-01-2020 05:39 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(01-31-2020 07:43 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  BYU is not coming to the AAC. The B12 is not breaking up, nor is it likely to expand and even if it did, it would only add 2.
Th B12 has maxed out the available revenue stream. The AAC does not have any good choices to make right now. If the rule change does not happen, the AAC will settle on a team, and it is unlikely that will be a MWC team. So we as fans better get used to the idea of getting excited over Buffalo/UAB/ODU/Ga St, ect as newbie #12.

You sound disappointed. Where was UCF before the AAC.

Not disappointed, Ucf was in CUSA and I would not prefer we go back. But I just don't see us or any G5 schools moving up. I don't for a minute think the P4 will raid the B12 this go round, nor do I think the B12 will expand. There is no $$ advantage P5 expansion at this time.

Which means UCF will be in the AAC for quite a while. Had the MWC gotten a TV deal below 3 mil per team, raiding them for 1 to 3 teams would be quite possible, but is much less likely with 3.5+ per school. So the only choices we have are G3. That doesn't mean one of those schools can't work out just fine, it just means that is what it is. ESPN does not have to change anything for 12 years, And the MWC may well further cut our advantage in 6.

I agree.

To the last sentence, I feel that having the contract with ESPiN ESPiiN+ for 12 years is a much better situation than the MWC without them. Yes, MWC does get more national network coverage, but not on ESPiN, who basically controls CFB presently. I do not see that changing that much in six years.