(01-23-2020 09:31 AM)dan10 Wrote: Not sure why. Hofstra is an awful matchup for Drexel, arguably the worst matchup for Drexel in the CAA.
Riller has done fine but I have him a couple steps behind Knight and Roland. Seems like he is trying too hard to get to the NBA and he is hurting his stock this season. Buie is definitely having a wonderful campaign for you guys, but I dont think he is right there either with Roland and Knight. He keeps on his tear he will be shortly, for sure.
In terms of matching the players, matching the point guards and forwards who don't shoot threes are easy. Beyond that, you have Juric, Green, and Okros who attempt more threes than twos, and Coburn is Hofstra's only starter who attempts more threes than twos. Because Butler gets so many rebounds, Walton has your second most with 4.3. Hofstra is more balanced with Kante at 7.3, Coburn at 5.9, and Pemberton at 5.6.
How has Riller hurt his stock? Compared to last season, he's shooting threes and free throws better, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks are up. He's shooting twos worse and committing more fouls and turnovers. If you use last season to make predictions for Riller this season with a margin of error like polls have, he'd be within the margin of error this season. If you think he's significantly worse than last season, I want to know why.
Roland leads in scoring and shoots threes much better than Riller, but Riller has way more rebounds and assists. I wonder if being by far the best forward will help Knight because nobody is by far the best guard.
Buie isn't as good as the other three, but if Hofstra wins the title I wouldn't out him winning a close vote. I wouldn't be surprised if the POY got under half of the votes.
On Flying Dutchmen Fans, I posted who the Sagarin expects to win. dan10 responded:
"Seems strange Sagarin has Drexel favored over Northeastern."
I'm copying my reply here so it's more likely dan10 reads it before the game:
"Either I typed that wrong or it changed a lot. The overall Sagarin favors Northeastern by 4.79. KenPom favors Northeastern by 5.19 plus home court, so the line is in between the Sagarin and KenPom. Seven Overtimes predicts Northeastern to win 72-67. Northeastern is worse in the Sagarin than in the NET, KenPom, and Seven Overtimes."
It's easy to find teams' records broken down into home, neutral, and away, but would it be possible and would it make sense to give teams separate ratings for home and away. Home court doesn't matter equally in each game, so if a rating wants to predict winners then it could be useful to give teams ratings for home and away. Neutral games are too small a sample size to mean much.