(10-31-2019 02:23 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  In football, the AAC has clearly separated itself from the MWC the past few years in terms of resources: coaches salaries, TV contracts, recruiting budgets, etc.

No question, with the recent TV deal, the AAC has clearly leaped far ahead of all the other G5 conferences on the money dimension, which is the biggest dimension. True, the MW is just coming to terms with a new deal itself, but there has been no indication that it will be anywhere near the $7m that the AAC is getting.

(11-01-2019 03:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 01:13 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 12:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 11:23 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Congrats to the AAC, hard not seeing them not sending at time again to the NY6

Only chance for them not to is if they have a 2 loss champion and Boise/San Diego St meet as 1 loss teams.....

Probably true.

Cincy is the only east division team with less than two losses.

They still have:
ECU, UCONN, USF, Temple and Memphis left. Memphis will be the biggest test. Plus they would have to lose TWICE not to be in the CCG

SMU (0), Navy (1) and Memphis (1) are the teams with less than two in the west (note though that Boise is ahead of Navy and Memphis in the AP Top 25)

Memphis/SMU, Navy/SMU still to come, plus Navy still has Notre Dame. So minimum three losses among the four 0 or 1 loss AAC teams to come.

If SMU, Cincy, Navy, or Memphis won out- they are the G5 rep no matter what....

Yes Boise may be ahead of Navy and Memphis-
BUT
Navy would be adding in wins over Notre Dame, SMU, and quite possibly Cincy.
Memphis would be adding in wins over SMU, Cincy, and Cincy most likely.
either one of those combos push them ahead of Boise.

Agree.

(11-01-2019 05:14 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 03:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 01:13 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 12:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 11:23 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Congrats to the AAC, hard not seeing them not sending at time again to the NY6

Only chance for them not to is if they have a 2 loss champion and Boise/San Diego St meet as 1 loss teams.....

Probably true.

Cincy is the only east division team with less than two losses.

They still have:
ECU, UCONN, USF, Temple and Memphis left. Memphis will be the biggest test. Plus they would have to lose TWICE not to be in the CCG

SMU (0), Navy (1) and Memphis (1) are the teams with less than two in the west (note though that Boise is ahead of Navy and Memphis in the AP Top 25)

Memphis/SMU, Navy/SMU still to come, plus Navy still has Notre Dame. So minimum three losses among the four 0 or 1 loss AAC teams to come.

If SMU, Cincy, Navy, or Memphis won out- they are the G5 rep no matter what....

Yes Boise may be ahead of Navy and Memphis-
BUT
Navy would be adding in wins over Notre Dame, SMU, and quite possibly Cincy.
Memphis would be adding in wins over SMU, Cincy, and Cincy most likely.
either one of those combos push them ahead of Boise.

Agree.

Bottom line is it north of 90% likely that the AAC champ will be go to the Cotton Bowl. It would take several unlikely events for it not to happen.

(11-02-2019 07:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 05:14 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 03:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 01:13 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 12:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Only chance for them not to is if they have a 2 loss champion and Boise/San Diego St meet as 1 loss teams.....

Probably true.

Cincy is the only east division team with less than two losses.

They still have:
ECU, UCONN, USF, Temple and Memphis left. Memphis will be the biggest test. Plus they would have to lose TWICE not to be in the CCG

SMU (0), Navy (1) and Memphis (1) are the teams with less than two in the west (note though that Boise is ahead of Navy and Memphis in the AP Top 25)

Memphis/SMU, Navy/SMU still to come, plus Navy still has Notre Dame. So minimum three losses among the four 0 or 1 loss AAC teams to come.

If SMU, Cincy, Navy, or Memphis won out- they are the G5 rep no matter what....

Yes Boise may be ahead of Navy and Memphis-
BUT
Navy would be adding in wins over Notre Dame, SMU, and quite possibly Cincy.
Memphis would be adding in wins over SMU, Cincy, and Cincy most likely.
either one of those combos push them ahead of Boise.

Agree.

Bottom line is it north of 90% likely that the AAC champ will be go to the Cotton Bowl. It would take several unlikely events for it not to happen.

I hope your prediction holds true, Quo, but I could see a scenario in which every AAC team has two losses after the American title game. With that, a one-loss MWC team goes.

(11-02-2019 07:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 05:14 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 03:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 01:13 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 12:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Only chance for them not to is if they have a 2 loss champion and Boise/San Diego St meet as 1 loss teams.....

Probably true.

Cincy is the only east division team with less than two losses.

They still have:
ECU, UCONN, USF, Temple and Memphis left. Memphis will be the biggest test. Plus they would have to lose TWICE not to be in the CCG

SMU (0), Navy (1) and Memphis (1) are the teams with less than two in the west (note though that Boise is ahead of Navy and Memphis in the AP Top 25)

Memphis/SMU, Navy/SMU still to come, plus Navy still has Notre Dame. So minimum three losses among the four 0 or 1 loss AAC teams to come.

If SMU, Cincy, Navy, or Memphis won out- they are the G5 rep no matter what....

Yes Boise may be ahead of Navy and Memphis-
BUT
Navy would be adding in wins over Notre Dame, SMU, and quite possibly Cincy.
Memphis would be adding in wins over SMU, Cincy, and Cincy most likely.
either one of those combos push them ahead of Boise.

Agree.

Bottom line is it north of 90% likely that the AAC champ will be go to the Cotton Bowl. It would take several unlikely events for it not to happen.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm disagreeing with your pro-AAC take...
Cincy loses to Memphis @ Memphis
Navy loses to Notre Dame @ Notre Dame
SMU loses to Memphis @ Memphis or Navy @ Navy
Memphis loses to Cincy in the rematch(real tough to beat same good team 2x in a row).

You say SMU only with 1 loss in AAC. Problem is they would lose tiebreaker to Memphis or Navy.

^^^^. While I agree that a 1-loss AAC CHAMP is the NY6 favorite, odds are about even there will be a zero or one loss AAC champ

(11-02-2019 10:27 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  ^^^^. While I agree that a 1-loss AAC CHAMP is the NY6 favorite, odds are about even there will be a zero or one loss AAC champ

however, if both Boise and SDSU take another loss- the AAC is 100% gold at that point.....

(11-02-2019 09:42 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2019 07:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 05:14 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 03:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-01-2019 01:13 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Probably true.

Cincy is the only east division team with less than two losses.

They still have:
ECU, UCONN, USF, Temple and Memphis left. Memphis will be the biggest test. Plus they would have to lose TWICE not to be in the CCG

SMU (0), Navy (1) and Memphis (1) are the teams with less than two in the west (note though that Boise is ahead of Navy and Memphis in the AP Top 25)

Memphis/SMU, Navy/SMU still to come, plus Navy still has Notre Dame. So minimum three losses among the four 0 or 1 loss AAC teams to come.

If SMU, Cincy, Navy, or Memphis won out- they are the G5 rep no matter what....

Yes Boise may be ahead of Navy and Memphis-
BUT
Navy would be adding in wins over Notre Dame, SMU, and quite possibly Cincy.
Memphis would be adding in wins over SMU, Cincy, and Cincy most likely.
either one of those combos push them ahead of Boise.

Agree.

Bottom line is it north of 90% likely that the AAC champ will be go to the Cotton Bowl. It would take several unlikely events for it not to happen.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm disagreeing with your pro-AAC take...
Cincy loses to Memphis @ Memphis
Navy loses to Notre Dame @ Notre Dame
SMU loses to Memphis @ Memphis or Navy @ Navy
Memphis loses to Cincy in the rematch(real tough to beat same good team 2x in a row).

You say SMU only with 1 loss in AAC. Problem is they would lose tiebreaker to Memphis or Navy.

My gut tells me the dominos won't fall that way. Or if they do, the MW champ will have 2 losses too.

96% chance the AAC gets the bid. We shall see.