Deez Nuts 39-0 (i think should be 38-0 unless JMU runs the table and surprisingly still has to play in the first four round)
JMUfanatic13 38-0
Cent 38-0 also winning the Olympic Gold and NBA title after the college hoops title
Hart 20-9 (12-6 CAA) lose in CAA finals
RamDawg 18 to 20 wins noncommittal
NJDuke 17-12 (10-8 CAA) nothing yet for CAA tourney
NYDuke 17-12 (11-7 CAA) nothing yet for CAA tourney
JMU08 15 to 16 wins noncommittal
JMad03 15-14 (7-11 CAA) nothing yet for CAA tourney
Yeehawdukes 14-15 nothing yet for CAA tourney
DukesFan1971 13-20 (7-11 CAA) there are 29 regular season games. Update?
JMaddy 12-17 to 15-14 noncommittal
PGJMU (11-7 CAA) no OOC prediction, lose in CAA finals

Here is a summary of starters lost in the CAA ranked by how teams finished in last year's standings.
1- Hofstra lost 2 starters
2- NE lost 3 starters plus Occeus who started half his games when healthy
3- Coc lost 3 starters
4- W&M lost 3 starters
5- Delaware lost 3 starters
6- Drexel lost 3 starters
7- Elon lost 2 starters plus Swoope who was hurt all year but started in 2017
8- JMU lost 1 starter
9- Towson lost zero starters
10- UNCW lost 2 starters

I suspect we see some of the top tier drop back this year and some of the lower tier move up this year. Throw it all in a bingo hopper and anyone could win the tourney this year - maybe not Elon.

Sorry Hart I was giving the team credit for their exhibition win against EMU.

Not counting the EMU exhibition, team has a 29 game schedule.

15-14 overall 8-8 in CAA

Then Dukes go 1-1 in CAAT

I'll go 16-13 (8-8) and 0-1 in the CAAT

And to think I thought I was the least confident.

I just don't see a non-winning CAA record for JMU. Believe me I understand how challenging the last three years have been, but the increased talent and experience should amount to significant improvement. Winning the CAA regular season or CAA tourny? No I don't see that, but certainly better than average in the CAA even with my belief of limited coaching......

(10-04-2019 12:27 PM)Dukester Wrote:  And to think I thought I was the least confident.

I just don't see a non-winning CAA record for JMU. Believe me I understand how challenging the last three years have been, but the increased talent and experience should amount to significant improvement. Winning the CAA regular season or CAA tourny? No I don't see that, but certainly better than average in the CAA even with my belief of limited coaching......

"Would be surprised it we did not go at least 12-6." Dukester

12-6 is a 6 win swing over last year and would have had us 3rd last year vs finishing 8th last year. that is a lack of confidence?

that doesnt sound like a lack of confidence. that appears to be setting high expectations to discredit any improvement that dont meet that bar. i think you and hart are in cahoots

Not seeing a lot of predictions that would lead to a "no brainer" decision to retain Rowe. This is year 4. He has an entire team of his players, several of whom have played together as a unit for 2 years, and should be expected to be top 3. The CAA is not the CAA of 8-10 years ago. If we are not a legitimate threat to win the conference by now, either he can't coach or the players are not as good as advertised-both fall on him.

All that said, I see no reason this team can't go 12-6 in the conference. Sweep the 3 bottom feeders and go .500 against the top 6. I think 7-4 OOC is reasonable. So I'm calling for 19-10 regular season and 21-11 after losing the CAA finals (Lou is, after all, a Lefty protégé).

(10-04-2019 12:49 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  

(10-04-2019 12:27 PM)Dukester Wrote:  And to think I thought I was the least confident.

I just don't see a non-winning CAA record for JMU. Believe me I understand how challenging the last three years have been, but the increased talent and experience should amount to significant improvement. Winning the CAA regular season or CAA tourny? No I don't see that, but certainly better than average in the CAA even with my belief of limited coaching......

"Would be surprised it we did not go at least 12-6." Dukester

12-6 is a 6 win swing over last year and would have had us 3rd last year vs finishing 8th last year. that is a lack of confidence?

that doesnt sound like a lack of confidence. that appears to be setting high expectations to discredit any improvement that dont meet that bar. i think you and hart are in cahoots

There is no "bar". A bar isn't needed when expectations are set at floor level.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if HCLR happens to get the exact number of wins he needs to retain his job.

All that aside, if Lou keeps his job I hope it's because he truly improves as a coach and any record improvement is just the beginning of a continuous upward trend. I'm not opposed to Lou being the one getting us back on track. I'm opposed to waiting too long for signs of life if our program is a corpse vs in a coma.

(10-04-2019 12:49 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  

(10-04-2019 12:27 PM)Dukester Wrote:  And to think I thought I was the least confident.

I just don't see a non-winning CAA record for JMU. Believe me I understand how challenging the last three years have been, but the increased talent and experience should amount to significant improvement. Winning the CAA regular season or CAA tourny? No I don't see that, but certainly better than average in the CAA even with my belief of limited coaching......

"Would be surprised it we did not go at least 12-6." Dukester

12-6 is a 6 win swing over last year and would have had us 3rd last year vs finishing 8th last year. that is a lack of confidence?

that doesnt sound like a lack of confidence. that appears to be setting high expectations to discredit any improvement that dont meet that bar. i think you and hart are in cahoots

Dukester -

"So were were 6-12 last year.

So we should reverse the 2 W&M losses. That get's us to get us to 8-10.

More experience.

Great recruiting class.

Overall - CAA appears to be down.

Would be surprised it we did not go at least 12-6. Surprised might be the wrong word. We really should be at least 12-6. Worst case scenario for me would be 10-8. Best case? I think 15-3. I don't expect worst or best, but unless we have a ton of injuries we will fall into the 10-15 conference wins range."

My full post - I assume PG you don't agree with it from your interpretation of what I'm doing.

Although my memory could certainly be off, but didn't we have a shot of top 4 or 5 late in the season?

- I do think based on experience and additional talent we will be improved.
- I do think W&M alone will account for 2 additional wins
- I do think the rest of the CAA will not be as competitive as last year.

PG - Where is my thinking off? Is there something you don't agree with?

Wouldn't you think at least 10-8"? "I think we should be at last 12-6" as I said.

I stand by my post. That's how I feel.


I think at least 10-8(above 500) and 12-6 seems about right.

For the record, 12-6 is not anywhere close to my goal for the program. I'm hopeful the women's team will do better than that on their rebuild year entering the new Arena.

(10-04-2019 01:47 PM)olddawg Wrote:  Not seeing a lot of predictions that would lead to a "no brainer" decision to retain Rowe. This is year 4. He has an entire team of his players, several of whom have played together as a unit for 2 years, and should be expected to be top 3. The CAA is not the CAA of 8-10 years ago. If we are not a legitimate threat to win the conference by now, either he can't coach or the players are not as good as advertised-both fall on him.

All that said, I see no reason this team can't go 12-6 in the conference. Sweep the 3 bottom feeders and go .500 against the top 6. I think 7-4 OOC is reasonable. So I'm calling for 19-10 regular season and 21-11 after losing the CAA finals (Lou is, after all, a Lefty protégé).

One prediction I’m pretty confident about- the debate will continue on Rowe. I don’t think there will be a no brainer on either side of the argument.

He has an entire team of leftovers.....but can he COACH? I have yet to see that.

(10-04-2019 02:44 PM)Dukester Wrote:  [quote='PGJMU2' pid='16345691' dateline='1570211389']
[quote='Dukester' pid='16345637' dateline='1570210046']
And to think I thought I was the least confident.

I just don't see a non-winning CAA record for JMU. Believe me I understand how challenging the last three years have been, but the increased talent and experience should amount to significant improvement. Winning the CAA regular season or CAA tourny? No I don't see that, but certainly better than average in the CAA even with my belief of limited coaching......

Dukester - I generally agree with you. I think we have a lot of talent coming back, with some very good recruits and the caa has lost some talent. Even with the defections from W&M, it is hard to predict a sweep. We were the 8th seed last year and won at Hofstra (15-3), so anything can happen in hoops when someone gets hot from 3. What is confusing is you say you are not confident, yet predict 12-6. That seems like quite an improvement for a 6-12 team that you have no confidence in. Do you think this team has the talent to be 16-2, but due to lack of confidence you have them at 12-6?

I think this team has a ceiling of 13-5, and should do no worse than 10-8. Given we have not shown the ability to turn the corner and Lou finding his way, i predicted 11- 7.

The issue I have is the program has been so awful that a winning CAA record is going to look like huge progress. There is a huge difference between the two scenarios below. If Lou had improved the team by 2 additional wins each year, a 10-8 conf record would look bad. But since they've done so poorly, a 10-8 conf record now would look like we've "turned the corner".

The reality is even if he goes 10-8 or 11-7, after 4 years he would have struggled to get to the level Matt was fired for (and the admin stated was not acceptable).

This is why I go back to Bourne's statement regarding a good coach being more than wins/losses. It's almost like he's laying out the case and justifying upcoming decisions in case this season's performance is "borderline" (whatever that is).

Actual "progress"

2015/16: 11-7 (Brady)
2016/17: 7-11
2017/18: 6-12
2018/19: 6-12
2019/20: 10-8


If Lou had improved by 2 wins over initial season

2015/16: 11-7 (Brady)
2016/17: 7-11
2017/18: 9-9
2018/19: 11-7
2019/20: 10-8

Here's the weave's write-up of the CAA: https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/colo...20-preview

(10-07-2019 10:08 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  

(10-04-2019 02:44 PM)Dukester Wrote:  [quote='PGJMU2' pid='16345691' dateline='1570211389']
[quote='Dukester' pid='16345637' dateline='1570210046']
And to think I thought I was the least confident.

I just don't see a non-winning CAA record for JMU. Believe me I understand how challenging the last three years have been, but the increased talent and experience should amount to significant improvement. Winning the CAA regular season or CAA tourny? No I don't see that, but certainly better than average in the CAA even with my belief of limited coaching......

Dukester - I generally agree with you. I think we have a lot of talent coming back, with some very good recruits and the caa has lost some talent. Even with the defections from W&M, it is hard to predict a sweep. We were the 8th seed last year and won at Hofstra (15-3), so anything can happen in hoops when someone gets hot from 3. What is confusing is you say you are not confident, yet predict 12-6. That seems like quite an improvement for a 6-12 team that you have no confidence in. Do you think this team has the talent to be 16-2, but due to lack of confidence you have them at 12-6?

I think this team has a ceiling of 13-5, and should do no worse than 10-8. Given we have not shown the ability to turn the corner and Lou finding his way, i predicted 11- 7.

I think we agree on ceiling and no worse exactly.

I mean I've not been confident during the last couple seasons, although I have tended to be overly optimistic entering seasons based on the actual results.

Not to beat a dead horse, but to answer your question it is not confidence. I think we might have the talent to get 16-2, but I don't think our coaching is up to par in the CAA.

(10-07-2019 03:26 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 10:08 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  

(10-04-2019 02:44 PM)Dukester Wrote:  [quote='PGJMU2' pid='16345691' dateline='1570211389']
[quote='Dukester' pid='16345637' dateline='1570210046']
And to think I thought I was the least confident.

I just don't see a non-winning CAA record for JMU. Believe me I understand how challenging the last three years have been, but the increased talent and experience should amount to significant improvement. Winning the CAA regular season or CAA tourny? No I don't see that, but certainly better than average in the CAA even with my belief of limited coaching......

Dukester - I generally agree with you. I think we have a lot of talent coming back, with some very good recruits and the caa has lost some talent. Even with the defections from W&M, it is hard to predict a sweep. We were the 8th seed last year and won at Hofstra (15-3), so anything can happen in hoops when someone gets hot from 3. What is confusing is you say you are not confident, yet predict 12-6. That seems like quite an improvement for a 6-12 team that you have no confidence in. Do you think this team has the talent to be 16-2, but due to lack of confidence you have them at 12-6?

I think this team has a ceiling of 13-5, and should do no worse than 10-8. Given we have not shown the ability to turn the corner and Lou finding his way, i predicted 11- 7.

I think we agree on ceiling and no worse exactly.

I mean I've not been confident during the last couple seasons, although I have tended to be overly optimistic entering seasons based on the actual results.

Not to beat a dead horse, but to answer your question it is not confidence. I think we might have the talent to get 16-2, but I don't think our coaching is up to par in the CAA.

Dukester and I agree!!

(10-07-2019 03:37 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 03:26 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 10:08 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  

(10-04-2019 02:44 PM)Dukester Wrote:  [quote='PGJMU2' pid='16345691' dateline='1570211389']
[quote='Dukester' pid='16345637' dateline='1570210046']
And to think I thought I was the least confident.

I just don't see a non-winning CAA record for JMU. Believe me I understand how challenging the last three years have been, but the increased talent and experience should amount to significant improvement. Winning the CAA regular season or CAA tourny? No I don't see that, but certainly better than average in the CAA even with my belief of limited coaching......

Dukester - I generally agree with you. I think we have a lot of talent coming back, with some very good recruits and the caa has lost some talent. Even with the defections from W&M, it is hard to predict a sweep. We were the 8th seed last year and won at Hofstra (15-3), so anything can happen in hoops when someone gets hot from 3. What is confusing is you say you are not confident, yet predict 12-6. That seems like quite an improvement for a 6-12 team that you have no confidence in. Do you think this team has the talent to be 16-2, but due to lack of confidence you have them at 12-6?

I think this team has a ceiling of 13-5, and should do no worse than 10-8. Given we have not shown the ability to turn the corner and Lou finding his way, i predicted 11- 7.

I think we agree on ceiling and no worse exactly.

I mean I've not been confident during the last couple seasons, although I have tended to be overly optimistic entering seasons based on the actual results.

Not to beat a dead horse, but to answer your question it is not confidence. I think we might have the talent to get 16-2, but I don't think our coaching is up to par in the CAA.

Dukester and I agree!!

Dukes 84

Thank you for sharing that article. I found it great reading and pretty much spot on especially about JMU, I have a good feeling that with staff additions and more experienced team our Dukes will find their way. Rowe is obviously a great man, but must step up his bench coaching this year. Coaches would love to have this much talent and experienced starters, the young bench is a concern, hopefully Christmas is as good as advertised.
GO DUKES

It’s secret scrimmage season and JMU reportedly has an early one on 10/12 at App State.

Regarding outside predictions a few things I disagree with 1) transfers - folks tend to overrate transfers in IMO- sometimes it’s hard to tell the impact and often times it’s not immediate 2) folks tend to underrate freshmen because they often don’t know much about them and 3)PG teams aren’t penalized for question marks at PG hard to be good without one.

In the 3 man weave article they had Hofstra 3 but they list Stafford Truehart as their starting center/ you may recall he was once allegedly recruited by Jmu- he is a role player at best and if he is their starting Center I don’t like their chances to finish that high.