(10-01-2019 02:55 PM)NC Tribe Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 02:29 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:38 AM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  I have been wrong on the preseason predictions for 3 years in a row with Louis Rowe as head coach. Unfortunately, I was too optimistic for each season compared to the terrible results.
Perhaps this year is the year.

The biggest consideration is how depleted the CAA is this year. Check out these numbers
Number of players lost from last year's All-CAA teams:
CAA 1st team - lost 4
CAA 2nd team - lost 3
CAA 3rd team - lost 3
CAA Rookie team - lost 2

Additionally, look at the key transfers that left programs and were in line to be the next All-CAA players.
UNCW lost Cylla to Arkansas
Drexel lost Demir to Minnesota
Delaware lost Horton to Pitt
NE lost Gresham to Georgia and Occeus looked at Ohio St, but will probably go pro.
W&M lost Pierce to UNC, Audige to Northwestern, and Milon to UCF
Elon lost Swoope to Sam Houston St.
JMU lost Jones to DII
There are probably more transfers, but those are the most impactful.

There is a huge talent drain from the CAA to power conferences.
Because of that JMU should move up in the standings and compete for a title. The league is a jumbled mess and it is up for grabs. Not even sure who the favorite might be, maybe Hofstra.

I will go with 20-9 regular season (12-6 CAA) 2-1 in the CAA tourney

At the end of last year I thought Louis Rowe should have been fired. When he wasn't, I thought he would have to win either the regular season or the CAA tourney to avoid getting fired this year. Looking at it closer, I think he needs to win the CAA tourney. Pass or fail.

A regular season title won't cut it. The previous coach was fired one year after tying for 1st in the regular season. The previous coach was fired 3 years after winning the CAA tourney and winning a First Four game in the NCAA tourney.
4 years with no NCAA visit would have to be the end for Rowe since Bourne has already established that his expectations were to get better results than the previous coach.

A CAA tournament title would be a great comeback story and everyone love's comeback stories.

in the words of John McEnroe, "you cant be serious!"

win the regular season, lose in the final, have all 5 starters coming back and that is not enough for you? yeah, ok buddy. blow it up with our best chance to go to the NCAA since 2012? havent you learned anything from the W&M debacle? Letting Lou go with those results would be dumber than move made by Samantha Huge.

but have it.

I don't think anything cold be dumber than the moves by Samantha Huge

Huge is in a class by herself w/ the basketball debacle.

That top 144 forecast is out and I didn't see the Dukes included. Saw CofC, Hofstra and NE included.

(10-01-2019 05:31 PM)Dukes84 Wrote:  That top 144 forecast is out and I didn't see the Dukes included. Saw CofC, Hofstra and NE included.

Makes sense I think the prognosticators have JMU around 200.

(10-01-2019 03:29 PM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  

(10-01-2019 02:35 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  

(10-01-2019 02:28 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  Hart every single year: "This team is absolutely loaded & has to produce or else it finally proves I was right about firing Brady!"

you forgot: "Bourne once said the expectation is to win the CAA every 4 years. That is the standard and anyone not meeting that MUST GO!!!!"

Hart is a pretty knowledgeable basketball guy who follows closely but I do sense he does the rope a Dope on the predictions each season so he can drop the hammer on Rowe when his team underperforms including Rowe’s first year minus Curry and his second year with a freshman core.

That’s besides the point now though because even I’ll admit as one of the bigger Rowe apologists that the team needs to take a major step this season and start to win and compete for titles.

I agree it’s results time or else for the GOAT HCLR. Mostly just irks me because it’s so obvious and transparent to the point where it’s insulting to everyone’s intelligence.

Coach Rowe’s career regular season record is 34-64
Coach Rowe’s career conference record is 19-35

I am going with 13-20, 7-11 in conference

I hope we go 20-13, 11-7. But until I see us successfully defend a pick and roll and stop chucking up bad shots, I will remain pessimistic.

(09-30-2019 02:29 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  in the words of John McEnroe, "you cant be serious!"

win the regular season, lose in the final, have all 5 starters coming back and that is not enough for you? yeah, ok buddy. blow it up with our best chance to go to the NCAA since 2012? havent you learned anything from the W&M debacle? Letting Lou go with those results would be dumber than move made by Samantha Huge.

but have it.

Yes, I am serious. The Dukes need to win the CAA tourney to keep Rowe. It is just a prediction but if my prediction is correct JMU would finish at 22-10. That would put Rowe at 56-104 for his career and zero NCAA appearances (giving full credit for 5 DIII wins). With that performance, only a donkey AD would retain him heading into year one of a $103 million arena. The body of work does matter. No lame duck year allowed.

At that time the play would be to bring in a proven coach and pay him corresponding to a program that is opening a $103 million arena. So what if some players choose to transfer out. #1 that isn’t a guarantee especially if a good coach is hired #2 if some players do transfer, there are over 1000 annually transferring from other programs and many would be interested in playing for a good coach in a new $103 million arena.

With all the CAA underclassmen transfers out and the CAA losing 3 NBA guys in Wright-Foreman, Brantley, and Cacock this year is definitely going to be a down year for the league. No excuses for the Dukes. JMU should be going up as the league is going down.

So what we all are rooting for is a CAA tourney title, but this is a prediction thread, not a “what are we rooting for? thread”

Only the CAA record matters IMO. Of course, I don't have some weird agenda that I think everyone is dumb enough to buy into.

So Hart are you saying that if Lou Rowe coaches JMU to a 30-0 record over his next 30 games you will give him a pass on the few non D1 wins and consider his body of work as .500%?

You didn't like the Brady firing, you didn't like the Rowe hire- you've been going back to the talking points in the Bourne press conference and you've been holding Rowe to a pretty unrealistic standard all along- since Jump street. Of course the body of work matters and its why Rowe is on the hot seat and the team needs to compete for the top of the conference and the auto bid this season going into next season but I don't buy for a second that if they do that you will back off Rowe, give him credit, or stop bringing up his aggregate wins and losses.

BTW if Rowe is let go it isn't fantasy college basketball- of all of the transfers only a small percentage would be of the immediately eligible variety to help JMU in season one of the new arena and potentially offset the transfers out and that's no way to build a program anyway.

I also find it funny on the CAA narrative- the CAA was down in the ratings last year- yet I think I've read where they were the most offensively efficient conference in the country. Folks were down on the CAA last year and now they are up on the CAA last year in hind sight because of the 3 NBA guys? I feel the same way that I have about the CAA for years now- it's a solid mid major league- it isn't as down as the ratings indicate nor is it as good as the best offensive league in the country (some of that is poor defense). Sure the CAA lost some talent but the conference returns some as well and like every year there will be an infusion of new quality mid major talent too-some of it apparently from JMU. Ritter, Knight, etc. the cupboard is not bare. Hofstra, Northeastern, and COC are solid mid major programs who can sustain player losses so it will be competitive.

JMU needs to step up their play big time- prior to Rowe they had trouble competing with the top of the conference non football schools (in the years preceding it was UNCW and some of the aforementioned programs). We can't bank on 2013 when schools were not eligible, in transition, etc. to get into the NCAA as a 16 seed. Don't get me wrong I would take it at this point but we need to up our game big time and outright compete and win vs the top of a decent mid major league and garner a 13 or 14 seed in the process. That is the progress that this program has been thirsting for for decades now.

There was small progress to that end last season - the win vs College of Charleston, the win at Hofstra- even some of the wins on the road (Charlotte and ECU) and on a neutral court (Northern Illinois). There were some real stinkers as well (ODU, Fordham, etc.) but there were moments where the team showed signs of reaching the level of where they need to be. A year older and a year better for players and coaches they need to be a lot more consistent in order to become a good team.

Whatever the program's record is, I hope that on March 1st 2020 Jeff Bourne personally takes all of our basketball players and recruits on a hard hat tour of the Atlantic Union Bank Center to remind them of what they will play for in 2020. Hype for a March run, or a prayer to keep most everybody around into next season.

(10-01-2019 02:35 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  

(10-01-2019 02:28 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  Hart every single year: "This team is absolutely loaded & has to produce or else it finally proves I was right about firing Brady!"

you forgot: "Bourne once said the expectation is to win the CAA every 4 years. That is the standard and anyone not meeting that MUST GO!!!!"

Yep. That statement of expectations was made by JB, but when it comes to MBB and Baseball somehow it doesn’t get applied. I guess we will see at the end of this MBB season. As much as I’d like to be surprised, I don’t see LR’s team winning the regular season championship, or the CAAT this year.

There are certainties in life:
-The sun will rise in the East and set in the West.
-There are 24 hours in a day.
-The JMU Men's Basketball team will disappoint.

Rowe may have made some changes and brought in some good staff and good players. But there is a constant: Lou Rowe. He is still our head coach. I think we might be better, but I feel it's foolish to believe a group of Freshmen is suddenly going to turn this team into a winning squad.
I am going with 15 wins and 7 conference wins. Out in the first round.

(10-02-2019 07:31 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  Whatever the program's record is, I hope that on March 1st 2020 Jeff Bourne personally takes all of our basketball players and recruits on a hard hat tour of the Atlantic Union Bank Center to remind them of what they will play for in 2020. Hype for a March run, or a prayer to keep most everybody around into next season.

I'd have to think that new Arena is a hell of a retention tool..

(10-02-2019 09:24 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 07:31 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  Whatever the program's record is, I hope that on March 1st 2020 Jeff Bourne personally takes all of our basketball players and recruits on a hard hat tour of the Atlantic Union Bank Center to remind them of what they will play for in 2020. Hype for a March run, or a prayer to keep most everybody around into next season.

I'd have to think that new Arena is a hell of a retention tool..

seeing will be believing, even for a half-finished facility. Hopefully we don't lose any of our players to other schools for any reason in the next 12 months.

We're going to fall somewhere between 12-17 and 15-14. 'Meh' and time to move on.

I’ll go with 17-12 (7-4, 10-8) 4th place in the Caa with a chance to get to 20 wins if they win the CaaT.

I just looked at the basketball schedule and thought "whoever did the OCC scheduling needs a raise, Nova, MD, St Johns, UCF, UVA, Georgetown.... what the heck is our SOS?" then I realized I was looking at the Women's schedule.

Back to reality, based on the changes made in the off season, assuming the CAA is typical CAA and the potential of the talent we have. I'm counting 18-20 wins. This team knows how to play but the big question is will they learn how to win tough games.

(10-02-2019 10:16 AM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  I’ll go with 17-12 (7-4, 10-8) 4th place in the Caa with a chance to get to 20 wins if they win the CaaT.

So were were 6-12 last year.

So we should reverse the 2 W&M losses. That get's us to get us to 8-10.

More experience.

Great recruiting class.

Overall - CAA appears to be down.

Would be surprised it we did not go at least 12-6. Surprised might be the wrong word. We really should be at least 12-6. Worst case scenario for me would be 10-8. Best case? I think 15-3. I don't expect worst or best, but unless we have a ton of injuries we will fall into the 10-15 conference wins range.

One thought - if JMU doesnt finish top 4, matt lewis wont deserve first team all CAA

(10-02-2019 10:51 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 10:16 AM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  I’ll go with 17-12 (7-4, 10-8) 4th place in the Caa with a chance to get to 20 wins if they win the CaaT.

So were were 6-12 last year.

So we should reverse the 2 W&M losses. That get's us to get us to 8-10.

More experience.

Great recruiting class.

Overall - CAA appears to be down.

Would be surprised it we did not go at least 12-6. Surprised might be the wrong word. We really should be at least 12-6. Worst case scenario for me would be 10-8. Best case? I think 15-3. I don't expect worst or best, but unless we have a ton of injuries we will fall into the 10-15 conference wins range.

I am always inclined to overestimate how we will do but this year I am trying to temper my expectations.

There are still road conference games to places that have been tough to win like Northeastern or Charleston- even places like W&M, Towson and UNCW have been a challenging place for JMU to win in the past.

There are some things going JMU's way this season but the other programs in conference have done some things as well.

I think 1-2 Freshmen contributors to go with improvements from the core group of returnees should give us a nice rotation. There is talk of more up tempo offense and pressure defense but honestly there has been talk of that since when Brady was here so when I see it I'll believe it. I sure hope so because we can be challenged in the half court although Wilson has become somewhat reliable in the post on offense. That said, there isn't much else but Wilson in the post and he's not a great defender so foul trouble, stamina, matchups could be a factor in some OOC and Conference games and make the difference between wins and losses.

What intrigues me a little is the Quality Control guy- we've seen JMU lose some real close games and observed some things over the last few years. Will Quality Control pick up on Banks as an example and the need for him to shoot more. Per Rowe it's not that they aren't encouraging him to shoot more but it's not his natural personality on the court to be that aggressive. Minus Mosely who they often looked for in the half court or out of timeouts does the team maybe do a better job working the ball around for shots and with overall balance?