(09-25-2019 11:48 AM)AlonsoWDC Wrote:  I'll go ahead and point you to all the threads last year that said the same thing about us following the Tulane loss.

You are trying to compare completely different situations.

Air Force is not as good as Memphis was last year. Boise is a lot better than Tulane and Houston were last year.

(09-25-2019 10:59 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(09-25-2019 10:27 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Assuming Boise and Memphis both win out...

Over the past 3 years, when you compare the first CFP ranking of G5 teams to the same week's AP poll, the CFP has had a lower ranking for 5 out of 6 G5 teams. You would expect the number to be around 2 or 3. The CFP discounts highly ranked G5's in the first week to mitigate the risk of one of us crashing the party.

This year, we can expect Boise to be discounted because they are the biggest "threat" to the CFP. Right now, we're not a threat because we're not yet in the national story with an AP ranking so I think they can safely toss us a bone with an initial CFP ranking around 25. Previous undefeated G5's in the first CFP rankings for the year were WMU CFP #23 (AP #17), UCF CFP #18 (AP #15), and UCF CFP #12 (AP #9). Boise should expect to be dropped to around 18-20.

I don't see any examples of an undefeated G5 leap-frogging another undefeated G5. But, there have never been two undefeated G5's at the end of the year. Undefeated G5's have moved up 4-8 positions between the first CFP and the final CFP.

Scenario: Boise comes in to the first CFP around 20 and moves just 4 positions. We start out ranked 23 and beat a ranked SMU and a ranked UCF. We move up 8 spots to leap-frog them.

I like the thought process, but by week 9 Boise will be close to top 10 in the AP/USA and the CFP mirrors those while maybe discounting a notch or two. No way BSU will be lower than 14 in the initial poll. Again, unlike any other G5 school, they really do have brand recognition.

Like I noted earlier, too, UCF only moved up 4 spots in five weeks in 2017 and Memphis moved up 3 in a five week span.

Even last year, UCF (despite going 14-0 the previous season) and going from 7-0 to 13-0 only moved up 4 spots in those 6 weeks of the cfp.

I do agree that an undefeated Boise would stop advancing at a certain threshold (between 8-10 in the CFP rankings) BUT that would also mean that it would borderline on preposterous that Memphis (even beating a ranked UCF) would be able to jump from 15 to 7/8 after one G5 win (logical assumption Memphis would be about 15 in the penultimate CFP poll and Boise at 8 or so).

But, the real reality is that there is about a 1% chance both those scenarios happen anyway.

It will be wait and see what happens.

But UCF moved up 6 spots in 2017, not 4.

(09-25-2019 01:55 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(09-25-2019 10:59 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(09-25-2019 10:27 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Assuming Boise and Memphis both win out...

Over the past 3 years, when you compare the first CFP ranking of G5 teams to the same week's AP poll, the CFP has had a lower ranking for 5 out of 6 G5 teams. You would expect the number to be around 2 or 3. The CFP discounts highly ranked G5's in the first week to mitigate the risk of one of us crashing the party.

This year, we can expect Boise to be discounted because they are the biggest "threat" to the CFP. Right now, we're not a threat because we're not yet in the national story with an AP ranking so I think they can safely toss us a bone with an initial CFP ranking around 25. Previous undefeated G5's in the first CFP rankings for the year were WMU CFP #23 (AP #17), UCF CFP #18 (AP #15), and UCF CFP #12 (AP #9). Boise should expect to be dropped to around 18-20.

I don't see any examples of an undefeated G5 leap-frogging another undefeated G5. But, there have never been two undefeated G5's at the end of the year. Undefeated G5's have moved up 4-8 positions between the first CFP and the final CFP.

Scenario: Boise comes in to the first CFP around 20 and moves just 4 positions. We start out ranked 23 and beat a ranked SMU and a ranked UCF. We move up 8 spots to leap-frog them.

I like the thought process, but by week 9 Boise will be close to top 10 in the AP/USA and the CFP mirrors those while maybe discounting a notch or two. No way BSU will be lower than 14 in the initial poll. Again, unlike any other G5 school, they really do have brand recognition.

Like I noted earlier, too, UCF only moved up 4 spots in five weeks in 2017 and Memphis moved up 3 in a five week span.

Even last year, UCF (despite going 14-0 the previous season) and going from 7-0 to 13-0 only moved up 4 spots in those 6 weeks of the cfp.

I do agree that an undefeated Boise would stop advancing at a certain threshold (between 8-10 in the CFP rankings) BUT that would also mean that it would borderline on preposterous that Memphis (even beating a ranked UCF) would be able to jump from 15 to 7/8 after one G5 win (logical assumption Memphis would be about 15 in the penultimate CFP poll and Boise at 8 or so).

But, the real reality is that there is about a 1% chance both those scenarios happen anyway.

It will be wait and see what happens.

But UCF moved up 6 spots in 2017, not 4.

In the 5 weeks leading up to the AAC title game. So 6 spots in 6 weeks after the title game.