(02-10-2020 06:13 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(02-10-2020 05:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Dbacks sign Nick Ahmed to a 4-year, 32.5 million extension.

The Dbacks have the best defensive middle infield in MLB locked down until 2024

The Cardinals, at a minimum, beg to differ.

They are close, but with Ketel moving back to 2nd mostly full-time, Dbacks have the edge.

MLB is floating a new proposal for expanding the number of playoff teams in each league from 5 to 7, among other things...

https://nypost.com/2020/02/10/mlb-plotti...-tv-twist/

Quote:MLB is seriously weighing a move from five to seven playoff teams in each league beginning in 2022, The Post has learned.

In this concept, the team with the best record in each league would receive a bye to avoid the wild-card round and go directly to the Division Series. The two other division winners and the wild card with the next best record would each host all three games in a best-of-three wild-card round. So the bottom three wild cards would have no first-round home games.

The division winner with the second-best record in a league would then get the first pick of its opponent from those lower three wild cards, then the other division winner would pick, leaving the last two wild cards to play each other.

(02-10-2020 07:11 PM)Wedge Wrote:  MLB is floating a new proposal for expanding the number of playoff teams in each league from 5 to 7, among other things...

https://nypost.com/2020/02/10/mlb-plotti...-tv-twist/

Quote:MLB is seriously weighing a move from five to seven playoff teams in each league beginning in 2022, The Post has learned.

In this concept, the team with the best record in each league would receive a bye to avoid the wild-card round and go directly to the Division Series. The two other division winners and the wild card with the next best record would each host all three games in a best-of-three wild-card round. So the bottom three wild cards would have no first-round home games.

The division winner with the second-best record in a league would then get the first pick of its opponent from those lower three wild cards, then the other division winner would pick, leaving the last two wild cards to play each other.

It's wonky, but it's a better idea that determining the host team for the World Series based on who wins an exhibition game. I'll give them that.

(02-11-2020 12:40 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(02-10-2020 07:11 PM)Wedge Wrote:  MLB is floating a new proposal for expanding the number of playoff teams in each league from 5 to 7, among other things...

https://nypost.com/2020/02/10/mlb-plotti...-tv-twist/

Quote:MLB is seriously weighing a move from five to seven playoff teams in each league beginning in 2022, The Post has learned.

In this concept, the team with the best record in each league would receive a bye to avoid the wild-card round and go directly to the Division Series. The two other division winners and the wild card with the next best record would each host all three games in a best-of-three wild-card round. So the bottom three wild cards would have no first-round home games.

The division winner with the second-best record in a league would then get the first pick of its opponent from those lower three wild cards, then the other division winner would pick, leaving the last two wild cards to play each other.

It's wonky, but it's a better idea that determining the host team for the World Series based on who wins an exhibition game. I'll give them that.

That's a pretty low bar, and in any case even MLB figured out how dumb that was.

I'm wondering if a huge part of the playoff expansion would be to give the 1 seed a much larger advantage in the LDS.

Imagine this scenario..... all 3 of the 2/7, 3/6, and 4/5 series Tue-Thu. LDS Starts Sat,Sun, Tue, Wed, Thu(getting rid of 2nd off day).

So in the 1/4-5 series- the 4/5 team would either have to go 3/1/2/4/3 or 4/1/2/3/4 in the best of 5(or start 1 starter on short rest in game 5).

(02-11-2020 12:51 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(02-11-2020 12:40 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(02-10-2020 07:11 PM)Wedge Wrote:  MLB is floating a new proposal for expanding the number of playoff teams in each league from 5 to 7, among other things...

https://nypost.com/2020/02/10/mlb-plotti...-tv-twist/

Quote:MLB is seriously weighing a move from five to seven playoff teams in each league beginning in 2022, The Post has learned.

In this concept, the team with the best record in each league would receive a bye to avoid the wild-card round and go directly to the Division Series. The two other division winners and the wild card with the next best record would each host all three games in a best-of-three wild-card round. So the bottom three wild cards would have no first-round home games.

The division winner with the second-best record in a league would then get the first pick of its opponent from those lower three wild cards, then the other division winner would pick, leaving the last two wild cards to play each other.

It's wonky, but it's a better idea that determining the host team for the World Series based on who wins an exhibition game. I'll give them that.

That's a pretty low bar, and in any case even MLB figured out how dumb that was.

A low bar? Absolutely, but they still cleared it.

(02-11-2020 12:40 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(02-10-2020 07:11 PM)Wedge Wrote:  MLB is floating a new proposal for expanding the number of playoff teams in each league from 5 to 7, among other things...

https://nypost.com/2020/02/10/mlb-plotti...-tv-twist/

Quote:MLB is seriously weighing a move from five to seven playoff teams in each league beginning in 2022, The Post has learned.

In this concept, the team with the best record in each league would receive a bye to avoid the wild-card round and go directly to the Division Series. The two other division winners and the wild card with the next best record would each host all three games in a best-of-three wild-card round. So the bottom three wild cards would have no first-round home games.

The division winner with the second-best record in a league would then get the first pick of its opponent from those lower three wild cards, then the other division winner would pick, leaving the last two wild cards to play each other.

It's wonky, but it's a better idea that determining the host team for the World Series based on who wins an exhibition game. I'll give them that.

"This time it counts"

The Dodgers-Sox deal leaves at least a couple of interesting questions, for me anyway:
1) Any lingering resentment with the 2018 World Series and BoSox sign stealing? I'd guess (and hope) no - so far we're hearing Sox cheating was less egregious - but there are some prominent guys really pissed about the Astros and when MLB's report on the Sox is released it'll be something to consider.
2) Will Graterol get a chance to start? He's not strictly a reliever but the Sox made it sound like he has to be, probably because they needed a better argument to get out of a deal they'd agreed to. But he's certainly been a starter and other than "early career Tommy John" there's no obvious reason he can't be given an opportunity there. He doesn't have on-going health issues.

(02-11-2020 01:36 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-11-2020 12:40 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(02-10-2020 07:11 PM)Wedge Wrote:  MLB is floating a new proposal for expanding the number of playoff teams in each league from 5 to 7, among other things...

https://nypost.com/2020/02/10/mlb-plotti...-tv-twist/

Quote:MLB is seriously weighing a move from five to seven playoff teams in each league beginning in 2022, The Post has learned.

In this concept, the team with the best record in each league would receive a bye to avoid the wild-card round and go directly to the Division Series. The two other division winners and the wild card with the next best record would each host all three games in a best-of-three wild-card round. So the bottom three wild cards would have no first-round home games.

The division winner with the second-best record in a league would then get the first pick of its opponent from those lower three wild cards, then the other division winner would pick, leaving the last two wild cards to play each other.

It's wonky, but it's a better idea that determining the host team for the World Series based on who wins an exhibition game. I'll give them that.

"This time it counts"

needs to be LESS Wild Card teams, not more. Baseball used to be the sport where you actually had to win something to get to the playoffs. Manfred's f#@&!ng the game up.

(02-11-2020 06:57 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  The Dodgers-Sox deal leaves at least a couple of interesting questions, for me anyway:
1) Any lingering resentment with the 2018 World Series and BoSox sign stealing? I'd guess (and hope) no - so far we're hearing Sox cheating was less egregious - but there are some prominent guys really pissed about the Astros and when MLB's report on the Sox is released it'll be something to consider.
2) Will Graterol get a chance to start? He's not strictly a reliever but the Sox made it sound like he has to be, probably because they needed a better argument to get out of a deal they'd agreed to. But he's certainly been a starter and other than "early career Tommy John" there's no obvious reason he can't be given an opportunity there. He doesn't have on-going health issues.

Was on a Nats message board and was talking about Betts... His offensive numbers were so outstanding compared to his normal that you just wonder if the sign stealing had any impact there..... 50 wRC+ points better than his other career high....

Pitchers and Catchers are reporting.

Magical words heh?

(02-12-2020 08:47 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Pitchers and Catchers are reporting.

Magical words heh?

More magical words: The PECOTA Projections are here!

Things that jump out for me:
- Only one team in the NL (LA at 102.5) projected to win more than 88 games! That seems crazy. Last year there were several projected over 90.
- Reds favored to win the Central. Not exactly a surprise but definitely shows their efforts to build something.
- Padres (slightly) better finish than Diamondbacks. This feels like Padres being over-valued.
- Mets and Nats in a dog fight, but Braves a few games back? I'd guess it'll be all 3 teams duking it out to the finish, with Mets having the best chance to Mets it up and figure a way to collapse late season.
- Astros with a pretty high win total when you consider the loss of Cole and Verlander in his age 36 season. This analysis is just math, so it does not care about cheating scandal and manager/GM change but you have to wonder if that'll have an effect.
- Angels looking right in the hunt, even with a still-suspect rotation. I think most are assuming A's will give Astros their biggest challenge in the West.
- Feels like Blue Jays have a good chance to exceed their projections, with young guys now more seasoned and the off season pitching moves.

(02-11-2020 09:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-11-2020 06:57 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  The Dodgers-Sox deal leaves at least a couple of interesting questions, for me anyway:
1) Any lingering resentment with the 2018 World Series and BoSox sign stealing? I'd guess (and hope) no - so far we're hearing Sox cheating was less egregious - but there are some prominent guys really pissed about the Astros and when MLB's report on the Sox is released it'll be something to consider.
2) Will Graterol get a chance to start? He's not strictly a reliever but the Sox made it sound like he has to be, probably because they needed a better argument to get out of a deal they'd agreed to. But he's certainly been a starter and other than "early career Tommy John" there's no obvious reason he can't be given an opportunity there. He doesn't have on-going health issues.

Was on a Nats message board and was talking about Betts... His offensive numbers were so outstanding compared to his normal that you just wonder if the sign stealing had any impact there..... 50 wRC+ points better than his other career high....

I've seen home/road splits for the Astros in 2017 (and they're really damning for Altuve and others) but haven't found any for 2018. Betts' numbers for the series weren't really that great (OPS of .699) but that's all I know.

(02-12-2020 12:56 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(02-12-2020 08:47 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Pitchers and Catchers are reporting.

Magical words heh?

More magical words: The PECOTA Projections are here!

Things that jump out for me:
- Only one team in the NL (LA at 102.5) projected to win more than 88 games! That seems crazy. Last year there were several projected over 90.
- Reds favored to win the Central. Not exactly a surprise but definitely shows their efforts to build something.
- Padres (slightly) better finish than Diamondbacks. This feels like Padres being over-valued.
- Mets and Nats in a dog fight, but Braves a few games back? I'd guess it'll be all 3 teams duking it out to the finish, with Mets having the best chance to Mets it up and figure a way to collapse late season.
- Astros with a pretty high win total when you consider the loss of Cole and Verlander in his age 36 season. This analysis is just math, so it does care about cheating scandal and manager/GM change but you have to wonder if that'll have an effect.
- Angels looking right in the hunt, even with a still-suspect rotation. I think most are assuming A's will give Astros their biggest challenge in the West.
- Feels like Blue Jays have a good chance to exceed their projections, with young guys now more seasoned and the off season pitching moves.

Right, those projections assume that player performance is independent of other factors -- new managers, team chemistry, motivation level -- and performance is not independent of those factors.

(02-12-2020 01:48 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-12-2020 12:56 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(02-12-2020 08:47 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Pitchers and Catchers are reporting.

Magical words heh?

More magical words: The PECOTA Projections are here!

Things that jump out for me:
- Only one team in the NL (LA at 102.5) projected to win more than 88 games! That seems crazy. Last year there were several projected over 90.
- Reds favored to win the Central. Not exactly a surprise but definitely shows their efforts to build something.
- Padres (slightly) better finish than Diamondbacks. This feels like Padres being over-valued.
- Mets and Nats in a dog fight, but Braves a few games back? I'd guess it'll be all 3 teams duking it out to the finish, with Mets having the best chance to Mets it up and figure a way to collapse late season.
- Astros with a pretty high win total when you consider the loss of Cole and Verlander in his age 36 season. This analysis is just math, so it does care about cheating scandal and manager/GM change but you have to wonder if that'll have an effect.
- Angels looking right in the hunt, even with a still-suspect rotation. I think most are assuming A's will give Astros their biggest challenge in the West.
- Feels like Blue Jays have a good chance to exceed their projections, with young guys now more seasoned and the off season pitching moves.

Right, those projections assume that player performance is independent of other factors -- new managers, team chemistry, motivation level -- and performance is not independent of those factors.

Heh - I left out a very strategic "not". now fixed.

(02-12-2020 12:56 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(02-12-2020 08:47 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Pitchers and Catchers are reporting.

Magical words heh?

More magical words: The PECOTA Projections are here!

Things that jump out for me:
- Only one team in the NL (LA at 102.5) projected to win more than 88 games! That seems crazy. Last year there were several projected over 90.
- Reds favored to win the Central. Not exactly a surprise but definitely shows their efforts to build something.
- Padres (slightly) better finish than Diamondbacks. This feels like Padres being over-valued.
- Mets and Nats in a dog fight, but Braves a few games back? I'd guess it'll be all 3 teams duking it out to the finish, with Mets having the best chance to Mets it up and figure a way to collapse late season.
- Astros with a pretty high win total when you consider the loss of Cole and Verlander in his age 36 season. This analysis is just math, so it does care about cheating scandal and manager/GM change but you have to wonder if that'll have an effect.
- Angels looking right in the hunt, even with a still-suspect rotation. I think most are assuming A's will give Astros their biggest challenge in the West.
- Feels like Blue Jays have a good chance to exceed their projections, with young guys now more seasoned and the off season pitching moves.

Braves I actually somewhat get.... They were +6 in Pyth. last year. Lose Donaldson, and pitching still a huge question(not helped by the Hamels news today).

(02-12-2020 02:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  (not helped by the Hamels news today).

Just saw that - never good when your shoulder hurts BEFORE spring training.

these first few weeks are when you hold your breath with especially young pitchers.... how many times do you hear they have to get TJ surgery after a week or 2 in ST?

I don't need to be nervous that Mookie's twitter still has a bunch of Red Sox crap all over it, right...?

man could be really bad for LA fans...

Anthony Davis traded to Lakers, plays 1 year, leaves for free agency
Mookie Betts traded to Dodgers, plays 1 year, leaves for free agency