(09-18-2019 01:16 PM)1845 Bear Wrote: Depends who moves first between the SEC and Big Ten and where they grab from. That dramatically shapes who’s available from and available for the Big8, SWC, ACC, Big East, WAC, and PAC10.
Well the Big 10's original target list would have included several in the OBE:
Let's say when they added Penn State they had taken Syracuse (then AAU), Notre Dame who was leaning that way before their donor alums stepped in, and before the ACC got healthy through expansion of their own they might well have been able to take Virginia (who supposedly had thoughts) and Nebraska begged in early from the Big 8.
So from 10 they move to 12 with Nebraska and Penn State, and to 15 with Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Virginia.
At the time North Carolina and Duke would have leaned more SEC if they could have been taken as a pair (and I base that on Cunningham's 2010 concerns when Maryland bolted and he called the SEC office to see if such a move would be possible should the worst happen in the ACC).
So I then believe the Big 10 would have looked West again to take Kansas taking them to 16. The hoops value was stronger in '90 and that's the basis for my thoughts:
So the Big 10:
Notre Dame, Penn State, Syracuse, Virginia
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska
If the Big 10 had beaten the ACC to the Big East targets of value the SEC would have been interested in taking a wholly different set of targets than the 6 we originally opted to seek. What's more the SWC would have been more likely to stick it out to see how they could expand or perhaps build a new conference entirely.
The SEC is at 10 in 1990 and with the ACC in weakened condition we move to 12 with Clemson and Florida State (2 of the original 6 targets of interest). North Carolina and Duke take us to 14. Virginia Tech to 15 and in 1990 they were in conversations with the SEC but were considered too much of an outlier. #16 would have been a decision between Georgia Tech, Miami, and N.C. State with the nod probably going to Georgia Tech. There would be empathy for their leaving and Atlanta is important to the SEC. But, as it becomes clear that N.C. State would be left out I think Duke and North Carolina threaten withdrawal without N.C. State and the SEC complies.
SEC:
Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Louisiana State, Florida State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Texas and Oklahoma seeing the weakness of the SWC's footprint reform as a new conference.
They take in Iowa State, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado from the old Big 8. They drop SMU and Rice to make room for expanded footprints. They do not lose Arkansas. And they make market adds with Georgia Tech and Miami both with hub airports that help with the travel issues. They work with the two Arizona's who opt to stay with the PAC.
The New Conference looks like this:
Arkansas, Baylor, Texas, T.C.U.
Houston, Georgia Tech, Miami, Texas A&M
Iowa State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Brigham Young, Colorado, Kansas State, Texas Tech
The PAC stays at 10.
We have a P4 of 58 schools.
A different kind of American Athletic Conference emerges:
Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Wake Forest
East Carolina, Central Florida, South Carolina, South Florida
Air Force, Army, Navy, Rutgers
Quite possibly this grouping would be considered a P conference keeping us at a P5. There are other schools that could replace the service academies if they opted out (Temple, Tulane, Southern Miss, S.M.U., etc.).