Before we get too excited about a championship this year
Going back to the 2009 recruiting class (247sports), there's a lot of interesting things to look at with the teams with top 5 recruiting classes.
The number 1 recruiting class has made the finals 3 times and won twice. Duke once and Kentucky once. Kentucky had the # 1 class all 4 previous years, Duke only the year they won. In Kentucky's finals loss, they also had the #1 class all 4 previous years.
Kentucky has had the #1 class 7 times and the #2 class 4 times (they have been #1 or #2 every year since 2008 recruiting class. They have been in the finals twice and won it all (once) in 2012 (against Kansas who did not have a top 5 class in the previous 4 years) that year they had a #1 recruiting class, they also had #1 recruiting classes the previous 3 years for both final appearances.
DUKE has had 4 #1 classes (4 of the last 5 years), and 6 top 5 classes since 2008. They have made the finals twice and won both times. Once against Butler and once against Wisconsin. Wisconsin's 4 recruiting classes were ranked 2014 #130, 2013 #38, 2012 #61 and #43 in 2011. Butler was #64 in 2011, #62 in 2012, #46 in 2013 and #62 in 2014.
Only 2 other teams have been in the top 5 more than Memphis since 2008. Arizona 5 times and UCLA 4 times. Louisville, Ohio State and Memphis have all been in the top 5 3 times. Kansas, Texas and UNC have had 2 classes in the top 5. 14 other teams have had a top 5 class once.
Going back each year and looking at the winner and their 4 year recruiting ranking leading up to their championship.
VIRGINIA 2019 #65, #98, #7, #62, no 5 stars
VILLANOVA 2018 #29, #45, #28, #9, 3 5 stars
NORTH CAROLINA 2017 #14, #70, #10, #15, 4 5 stars
VILLANOVA 2016 #29, #48, #36, #27, 1 5 star
DUKE 2015 #1, #9, #41, #2, 6 5 stars
UCONN 2014 #37, #29, #33, #23, 1 5 star
LOUISVILLE 2013 #79, #3, #63, #23, 1 5 star
KENTUCKY 2012 #1, #1, #1, #1, 11 5 stars
UCONN 2011 #23, #8, #7, #252, 3 5 stars
DUKE 2010 #20, #14, #11, #5, 4 5 stars
So, it has been done, having the #1 class and winning it all, but only twice, counting a finals loss, 3 times. You could say statistically Memphis has a 25-20% chance to win it all. But reality says that 5 stars are occasionally super stars, but usually beaten by good experienced teams. Our best hope is that one of our freshman is actually an incredible college basketball player.
Its going to be fun!
(This post was last modified: 06-07-2019 04:00 PM by cmt.)
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