swvabucsfan
All American
Posts: 3,789
Joined: Dec 2007
Reputation: 34
I Root For: ETSU
Location:
|
RE: The SoCon on May 22 2019
(07-22-2019 07:06 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote: ... it's worth noting that the 'Dins were 1-1 with the Bucs last year, swapping home game blowouts (79-56 and 61-91) and tied with ETSU in the SoCon standings.
From those teams, Furman loses more: they lose their leader in scoring, rebounding, steals and assists, 6-8 215 Matt Rafferty, and tough 6-4 212 glue guy Andrew Brown, their 6th leading scorer.
ETSU loses less: 6-10 240 Mladen Armus was tough, but not the key player that Rafferty was. The Bucs have no other significant loss.
ETSU also has a proven replacement for their loss: a player with solid D1 production in 6-7 215 graduate transfer Joe Hugley (21.3 min., 12.3 ppg, 5.2 rebounds), who is a much better offensive player than Armus, though not as strong a rebounder.
Meanwhile Furman is relying on unproven underclassmen: 6-7 206 sophomore Jalen Slawson (6.0 minutes, 0.7 points, 1.5 rebounds), or freshmen Jonny Lawrence or Ben Beeker.
Furman returns four (4) players who scored between 8.8 and 16.2 points last year (Lyons, Mounce, Gurley and Hunter), but nobody else who averaged over 3.9.
The Bucs have seven (7) players who scored between 8.8 and 12.2 points last year (Boyd, Good, Hodges, Williamson, Rodriguez and Tisdale return and Joe Hugley joins in). And add a tough 6-4 195 JUCO Junior in Vonnie Patterson with 15.2 points a game and 7.3 rebounds on the JUCO level.
Furman has rebounding (1.1 rebounding margin) that Bob Richey acknowledged was a problem area before leading rebounder Matt Rafferty graduated.
The Bucs return most of the rebounding (10.1 rebounding margin) that put them second in D1 in rebounding margin last year.
Furman does deserve an edge in defense. We'll see how much without Rafferty.
Also 1.9 fewer turnovers (12.3 to 14.2 for ETSU), although replacing Mladen with Hugley reduces that by 1 per game.
So there's not much statistical basis for it, but rank them ahead if you want. It's something that the Bucs might want to remember.
College Sports Madness continues its daily reveal ranking Furman #91 overall just ahead of Pitt, Northeastern, ODU, Iona and Murray State. And #2 in the Socon. https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/17684
That's not an unreasonable overall ranking for Furman, which had a great season last year and returns 4 starters. But which loses team leader Matt Rafferty and glue guy Andrew Brown. For reasons which I set out above, ranking them ahead of ETSU makes too many assumptions about the performance of unproven freshmen and sophomores.
But the really odd thing about these rankings is that College Sports Madness ranks another team above Furman, ETSU and UNCG. Probably Wofford, which was great last year, but which loses perimeter leader Fletcher Magee (20.3 ppg), front court leader Cam Jackson (14.5 ppg, 7.6 rebounds) and 6-9 225 starter Keve Aluma (6.9 ppg, 6.8 rebounds), as well as coach Mike Young.
Or maybe even Samford? Which went 6-12 in the SoCon: 0-3 against UNCG last year, 0-2 against ETSU, 1-1 against Furman, stealing a win on a freak 3 by freshman power forward Robert Allen. Heck, they went 0-2 against Mercer. And they lose their 7-0 240 stud post player Ruben Guerrero (13.5 ppg on .611 FG%, 2.1 blocks, 8.4 rebounds).
Just a weird SoCon ranking. Stick with ESPN's Joe Lunardi for a more intelligent early pick (ETSU #1 in the SoCon and a 13 seed in the NCAA's). http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketb...acketology
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2019 10:38 AM by swvabucsfan.)
|
|