I don't believe any G5 conference is close to being a Power Conference. Even though the AAC is clearly the best G5, they are not going to get a automatic New Year's Day tie, like the P5 have. Plus, the AAC carries too many bad programs. But, I do believe there are a couple Power Programs within the G5, that can play against any P5 program in the country. And, I think their are a few G5 programs that are close to becoming G5 Power Programs.

When I looked at the programs from every G5 conference, and the independents, the programs I identified as Power Programs and those closing in on becoming one, have a very different way of operating. This is a team by team explanation of what I found and why I classify these programs as Power Programs.

G5 Power Programs

UCF
81% Winning record over the last 3 seasons
$56 Million Athletic Budget
43,000 Attendance average in 2018
$1.7 Million- Head Coaches Salary
OOC Scheduling (Annual home and away games with P5 programs)

BYU
51% Winning record over the last 3 seasons
Athletic Budget is not available, but must be high
52,000 Attendance average in 2018
NA- Head Coaches Salary
Indy schedule is loaded with P5 game both home and away

Emerging G5 Power Programs

USF
74% Winning record over the last 3 seasons
$49 Million Athletic Budget
38,000 Attendance average in 2018
$1 Million- Head Coaches Salary
OOC Scheduling (Annual home and away games with P5 programs)

San Diego St.
70% Winning record over the last 3 seasons
$51 Million Athletic Budget
31,000 Attendance average in 2018
$872K- Head Coaches Salary
OOC Scheduling (Annual home and away games with P5 programs)

Houston
63% Winning record over the last 3 seasons
$57 Million Athletic Budget
29,000 Attendance average in 2018
$4 Million- Head Coaches Salary
OOC Scheduling (Annual home and away games with P5 programs or BYU)

Cincinnati
51% Winning record over the last 3 seasons
$62 Million Athletic Budget
30,000 Attendance average in 2018
$2 Million- Head Coaches Salary
OOC Scheduling (Annual home and away games with P5 programs)

Boise State
78% Winning record over the last 3 seasons
$45 Million Athletic Budget
33,000 Attendance average in 2018
$1.65 Million- Head Coaches Salary
OOC Scheduling (Annual home and away games with P5 programs)

Temple
63% Winning record over the last 3 seasons
Athletic Budget is not available
27,000 Attendance Average in 2018
NA- Head Coaches Salary
OOC Scheduling (Annual home and away games with P5 programs)

These are the programs I believe the rest of the G5 needs to be chasing.

Looks pretty good.

I usually look at the top 3 to 5 jobs in each G5 conference. For instance the Marshall job in CUSA is pretty important. App job in SBC ect.

How the hell can Boise be considered "emerging" at this point? They were one of, if not the original BCS busters and the first G5 program in the access bowl.

I think this is a very interesting concept. In my observations there are 3 main things P5 Univeristy Presidents look at when evaluating expansion candidates (G5 Power Programs)
1. University Endowment
2. Athletic Budget
3. Football Attendance (Fan support)

To be a G5 Power Program I believe you would need to be within the lowest P5 program in all three categories. These could be wrong but these are the numbers I found online:
1. Lowest P5 University Endowment - Mississippi St. ($470,000,000)
2. Lowest P5 Athletic Budget - Washington St. ($64,000,000)
3. Lowest P5 Football Attendance - Kansas (26,000)

Here are the G5 teams that are within all three of these ranges:
1. BYU

I couldn’t find data on their financials but I imagine Army, Navy, and Air Force fit in these three ranges. To me this is why the Big 12 ultimately didn’t expand because there is no team that they could add that wouldn’t have devalued the conference. Just my opinion. [/align]

(04-06-2019 03:28 PM)McKinney Wrote:  How the hell can Boise be considered "emerging" at this point? They were one of, if not the original BCS busters and the first G5 program in the access bowl.

I know. I found it odd too. But the simple truth is that other programs have stepped up their game. Boise hasn't really lost a step. They just have not been able to kept up with the pace that other programs are growing at (Budgets, Attendance, ....). Also, while they have certainly continued winning, Boise has not earned the access bowl spot in 5 years.

Technically BYU isn't a G5 team. To be a G5 team you have to be in a G5 conference who is eligible for the Access NY6 bowl.

(04-06-2019 05:39 PM)prisonmike Wrote:  I think this is a very interesting concept. In my observations there are 3 main things P5 Univeristy Presidents look at when evaluating expansion candidates (G5 Power Programs)
1. University Endowment
2. Athletic Budget
3. Football Attendance (Fan support)

I understand where you're coming from and viewing all three metrics in context does help identify the value added by an expansion member. But I'd just be careful with reading into any single metric.

Endowment really shouldn't play a role in athletics. In some extreme cases, it may, but it should be used as a buffer against changes in economic factors as well as funding line items core to the university's mission (endowed chairs, low-income access, etc.). It's also used in a pissing match context, which I guess is what you're getting at here, but I digress.

Athletic budget seems to make a lot of sense here, but it should probably take into account any subsidies. And under subsidies, I'll include media subsidies. To use your WSU example, Washington State probably would not bring in $64M per year if they were in the MWC vs the PAC12.

(04-06-2019 05:39 PM)prisonmike Wrote:  I think this is a very interesting concept. In my observations there are 3 main things P5 Univeristy Presidents look at when evaluating expansion candidates (G5 Power Programs)
1. University Endowment
2. Athletic Budget
3. Football Attendance (Fan support)

To be a G5 Power Program I believe you would need to be within the lowest P5 program in all three categories. These could be wrong but these are the numbers I found online:
1. Lowest P5 University Endowment - Mississippi St. ($470,000,000)
2. Lowest P5 Athletic Budget - Washington St. ($64,000,000)
3. Lowest P5 Football Attendance - Kansas (26,000)

Here are the G5 teams that are within all three of these ranges:
1. BYU

I couldn’t find data on their financials but I imagine Army, Navy, and Air Force fit in these three ranges. To me this is why the Big 12 ultimately didn’t expand because there is no team that they could add that wouldn’t have devalued the conference. Just my opinion. [/align]

I don't pretend to understand the thoughts of university presidents, but I do think you may be underestimating the scheduling philosophy being applied by these particular programs. I think almost every G5 program fits into one of these 4 categories.

At the lowest end of the G5- You have too many G5 programs relying on bodybag games with elite P5 programs (Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio State, ...). Some even schedule multiple bodybag games every season, and end up with only 1 OOC home game because of it. Teams at this level are not really committed to playing in the FBS, and probably need to think about closing up shop or moving down to the FCS.

The middle of the road G5- These programs maybe schedule a 2 for 1 with a P5 every now and then. They also schedule plenty of OOC games with other G5 programs. Teams at this level are true G5 programs and have probably hit their ceiling.

The better G5 programs- Tend to schedule a P5 home an home, and end up with a P5 at their stadium every other season. They also buy home games against FCS programs so they can always play six home games. Teams at this level could become Power Programs if they can develop funding and take the next step in scheduling.

G5 Power Programs and those working to become one- The teams I listed seem focused on playing two P5 teams every season, and have them scheduled on alternating home and home arrangements. This allows them to feature a P5 home game every season. This type of scheduling has not been the norm within the G5. If 8 or 9 programs ever reach this level of commitment (Sustained winning records, 55 Million athletic budgets, 40,000 average attendance, & this type of scheduling), they could reform into a new conference and be an actual Power Conference that the P5 would have to include. By my count UCF and BYU are already there. Cincinnati, Houston, USF, Boise St., and San Diego St. are all getting close.

(04-06-2019 06:17 PM)MUsince96 Wrote:  Technically BYU isn't a G5 team. To be a G5 team you have to be in a G5 conference who is eligible for the Access NY6 bowl.

True, but I lumped them in because like the rest of the FBS, they are also on the outside looking in.

(04-06-2019 05:39 PM)prisonmike Wrote:  I couldn’t find data on their financials but I imagine Army, Navy, and Air Force fit in these three ranges. To me this is why the Big 12 ultimately didn’t expand because there is no team that they could add that wouldn’t have devalued the conference. Just my opinion. [/align]

Endowments aren't that big. In 2017 (last reported):
Army $348M
Navy $262M
Air Force $97M

But per capita, those are reasonably high.

Air Force is the only one who reports athletic finances to USA Today. They're at $59.5M so just under. But $33M came from subsidies (taken out of cadet stipends). And to my knowledge, there's a similar situation at West Point. Probably the same deal at Navy.

I think all three academies are pretty decent on attendance. Usually in the low to mid 30ks.

(04-06-2019 07:16 PM)McKinney Wrote:  

(04-06-2019 05:39 PM)prisonmike Wrote:  I couldn’t find data on their financials but I imagine Army, Navy, and Air Force fit in these three ranges. To me this is why the Big 12 ultimately didn’t expand because there is no team that they could add that wouldn’t have devalued the conference. Just my opinion. [/align]

Endowments aren't that big. In 2017 (last reported):
Army $348M
Navy $262M
Air Force $97M

But per capita, those are reasonably high.

Air Force is the only one who reports athletic finances to USA Today. They're at $59.5M so just under. But $33M came from subsidies (taken out of cadet stipends). And to my knowledge, there's a similar situation at West Point. Probably the same deal at Navy.

I think all three academies are pretty decent on attendance. Usually in the low to mid 30ks.

Navy's 2017 attendance was 34,950 (NMCMS capacity is 34,000). 2018 just over 32k. Army around the same, AF lower (late kickoffs in Front Range in cold weather months).
Navy's athletic budget is north of $40M, with about 3% being "subsidized" because some aspects of non-revenue sports are hard to extricate from Academy operations budgets. Army "subsidized" is between Navy and Air Force.

(04-06-2019 05:39 PM)prisonmike Wrote:  I think this is a very interesting concept. In my observations there are 3 main things P5 Univeristy Presidents look at when evaluating expansion candidates (G5 Power Programs)
1. University Endowment
2. Athletic Budget
3. Football Attendance (Fan support)

To be a G5 Power Program I believe you would need to be within the lowest P5 program in all three categories. These could be wrong but these are the numbers I found online:
1. Lowest P5 University Endowment - Mississippi St. ($470,000,000)
2. Lowest P5 Athletic Budget - Washington St. ($64,000,000)
3. Lowest P5 Football Attendance - Kansas (26,000)

Here are the G5 teams that are within all three of these ranges:
1. BYU

I couldn’t find data on their financials but I imagine Army, Navy, and Air Force fit in these three ranges. To me this is why the Big 12 ultimately didn’t expand because there is no team that they could add that wouldn’t have devalued the conference. Just my opinion. [/align]

You have no idea what BYU has money wise as that is never released.


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(04-06-2019 08:01 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(04-06-2019 05:39 PM)prisonmike Wrote:  I think this is a very interesting concept. In my observations there are 3 main things P5 Univeristy Presidents look at when evaluating expansion candidates (G5 Power Programs)
1. University Endowment
2. Athletic Budget
3. Football Attendance (Fan support)

To be a G5 Power Program I believe you would need to be within the lowest P5 program in all three categories. These could be wrong but these are the numbers I found online:
1. Lowest P5 University Endowment - Mississippi St. ($470,000,000)
2. Lowest P5 Athletic Budget - Washington St. ($64,000,000)
3. Lowest P5 Football Attendance - Kansas (26,000)

Here are the G5 teams that are within all three of these ranges:
1. BYU

I couldn’t find data on their financials but I imagine Army, Navy, and Air Force fit in these three ranges. To me this is why the Big 12 ultimately didn’t expand because there is no team that they could add that wouldn’t have devalued the conference. Just my opinion. [/align]

You have no idea what BYU has money wise as that is never released.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Brigham Young University, Provo (UT) 53 1,581,452

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d17/...urrent=yes

Another fact about the programs I listed is that all of them, except for San Diego State, pay their head coaches among the top 15 in the G5, which consists of about 65 programs.

Had the CCG deregulation that the Big 12 occurred before the last shake up the AAC would not have added Tulsa or Tulane and they'd be a much stronger conference.

(04-09-2019 09:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Had the CCG deregulation that the Big 12 occurred before the last shake up the AAC would not have added Tulsa or Tulane and they'd be a much stronger conference.

I agree. For the most part the small private schools along with ECU and UConn are dragging down AAC football.

It's a shame Appalachian State stinks in basketball. Because they have the potential to be a perennial powerhouse in the Sun Belt in football.

(04-10-2019 12:36 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  It's a shame Appalachian State stinks in basketball. Because they have the potential to be a perennial powerhouse in the Sun Belt in football.

Well, App hasn't always sucked. Just got two very bad no good hires in a row by Charlie Cobb (now GaSt's AD). Win counts in the high teens were always the norm in the SoCon before Cobb took a dump on the program.

App was SoCon regular season champs:

Quote:1998, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2010

Then came Charlie

I did a quick look at the records over the last 3 years for these Power G5 programs against P5 opponents and against each other.

UCF
P5 Opponents per year: 2
3-year Record v. P5: 50% 3-3
3-year Record v. Power G5: 71% 5-2

BYU
P5 Opponents per year: 5
3-year Record v. P5: 33% 5-10
3-year Record v. Power G5: 25% 1-3

Emerging G5 Power Programs

USF
P5 Opponents per year: 2.3
3-year Record v. P5: 87% 6-1
3-year Record v. Power G5: 38% 3-5

San Diego St.
3-year Record v. P5: 80% 4-1
3-year Record v. Power G5: 67% 2-1

Houston
P5 Opponents per year: 2
3-year Record v. P5: 67% 4-2
3-year Record v. Power G5: 80% 4-1

Cincinnati
P5 Opponents per year: 1.3
3-year Record v. P5: 75% 3-1
3-year Record v. Power G5: 13% 1-7

Boise State
P5 Opponents per year: 2.3
3-year Record v. P5: 43% 3-4
3-year Record v. Power G5: 80% 4-1