(02-14-2019 08:27 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote: (02-13-2019 04:22 PM)YNot Wrote: How does the PAC realistically get into the Central time zone? Could it pry away any B12 schools before Texas and Oklahoma leave? The only non-P5 schools that appear to meet the academic rigor are Rice and Tulane. Houston and Memphis would move the needle for football and basketball....but don't appear to check the academics or flagship/fan-following boxes.
So, 6-7 more years of the status quo?
They added ASU and UA, I don't think the rigor is an issue. The Pac will add whoever they can from the XII split that isn't named Baylor, WVU and prob Iowa St. The few P5 teams that would be considered are UNLV and Houston.
I very much doubt that. I collected the data on the B12 schools. As Admission Index goes the date is beloiw. The P12 would definitely take any school that was tier 1 or tier 2 AI. If you consider the Presidents and Chancellors attempted to replace OK State with KU you can see 5 of the 6 they were considering were safely above that red red line, and in fact above the green line. Texas Tech was the outlier, but it was based on the requirement of taking the public schools in Texas to get Texas.
Now everything to the right is my own value ranking based on the data. Frank the Tank did similar with the B12 Rose Ceremony, but I don't think he pulled the Equity in Athletics data from the DoE, nor did he pull the HERD R&D numbers. To the point the stuff on the right is subjective. I think it gives you a ball park, and when I ran it against the 20 schools the B12 evaluated it correctly predicted the 11 who got roses and threw out the other 9. (Note the ones who got roses ranged from 11 to 15 on the same scale these B12 and P12 schools use and range from 12 to 25)
As a rule of thumb for expansion, conferences look at the lowest rated existing member ... provided they are not an outlier, such as Washington State (you can't use WSU for P12 minimum, either for budget or for AI, they are just plan bad ... Leach does wonders there).
I think the realistic line is an Athletic Budget (for a P5 school) equal to say Oregon or Colorado (around $81M as reported to the Feds), and AI somewhere between Utah and Oregon State (say 1200 SAT).
Iowa State as an Institution qualifies, and it's AAU, like oregon and Arizona, overcomes some deficiency in selectivity. But their Athletic budget is as far short of desired as Washington State. (Note, a G5 you go maybe $15-20M lower on the theory they can build it up $20M with P5 revenues.)
UT, OU and KU hit every target easily. But we all know UT and OU are off the table. KU is very attractive and could probably move stand alone to the B1G or SEC and certainly would compliment UT or OU as a partner in either. But if they are not off the board the P12 should target them (KC market).
Baylor is a strong school but has too strong a religious control, like BYU, and are a non starter with honor code, LGBT, and T9 issues. The P12 Presidents and Chancellors simply would not be willing to associate with them. TCU is not as selective, but has better budget for athletics and if anything better athletics, plus DFW market. Their religious association is very modest, and not restrictive (it's a liberal denomination, as is SMU). But TCU is not a research school. So the P12 would have to bend on that to take them. KU and TCU would be an interesting pair.
ISU, K State, OK State and Tech without Texas are non starters, too many "red" markers and except for Tech having more than 25,000 full time undergrads, don't check off a single "blue" box criteria. West Virginia is the weakest of the lot and too far away to consider anyway.
The same standards of the P12 likely apply for both the SEC and B1G for expansion. So I think you can safely say Baylor, Tech, WVU, ISU, K State, OK State are not going anywhere.
Texas and OU can go anywhere, and KU will likely be on the move too. TCU is the wild card. Definitely out for the B1G. But one wonders about their value for P12, SEC (probably not realistic), and even ACC.
As for the G5 I ran a similar with the Rose ceremony in mind
What should be obvious is that the B12 Rose ceremony only required schools have a top 10 G5 budget and hit the 1200 SAT for AI (same for P12). Tulane and Rice were such strong institutions that they stretched the line (there by the way is a $3.5 M drop after Rice to a bunch of MAC schools). Geography did not play a part. On my score index all fell short of the 16 minimum to get an invite, although Cincy, UConn and BYU came closest. UCF has risen "1" on my listing due to their recent FB success -- their weak endowment is a concern. What is fascinating is ignoring Temple and the two egghead schools, there is surprisingly little value difference in the schools given a Rose.
UNLV and New Mexico are lowly ranked academically that they are non-starters. Believe me if UNLV were not such an awful institution the P12 would be talking to them. SDSU is so far off the budget list I didn't bother to grade them. But they'd probably rank "7" or "8" as an institution.
This data does give one a clue as to who the B12 would look at for replacements (assuming UConn is too far away, the egghead schools and Temple not enough athletic value), and also how slim the pickings are for the AAC to replace any schools sucked up by the B12. For G5 conferences, resources (athletic budget) matters most. ODU, FIU, UMass and Rice standout from the rest of G5 ... obviously that doesn't do a thing for AAC football and except UMass probably no much for Basketball either. If they lose 2, standing pat looks better than lowering standards.
Anyway, what I am trying to show is there is nothing much out there for the P12. Fixing their issues internally makes more sense. (But were I the P12 expansion committee, I'd keep the lines open for Texas should they blunder and find themselves in a B12 without OU or KU and be looking to replace them with some schools just as mediocre as K State and Texas Tech. But I'd more seriously talk with TCU and KU -- most likely they would not add either, but keep options open.
Slim pickings.