https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/23/mississi...-espy.html

Just throwing this out here for people to predict and comment on the race.

I for the record, think that Mike Espy is going to have a real difficult road. Here's why

1) Cindy Hyde-Smith is a far-far-FAR right wing candidate. But she's not Roy Moore. And her views and statements appear to match those of many white Mississippians.

2) Hyde-Smith got 41 percent on the general election date. An even worse candidate, Confederate/Southern Nationalist Chris McDaniel, got 19 percent. Espy had 40 percent. Its hard to imagine McDaniel voters voting for Mike Espy, an African American

3) Both candidates in the runoff have had issues. For Espy, there have been claims that he had some financial improprieties. Cindy Hyde-Smith has had Confederacy/Jim Crow turrets, including joking about attending public lynchings.

4) For Espy to win, he needs African Amreican voters to be north of 40% of the runoff turnout (They were 33 percent in November). In addition, he will need 30 percent of the non-black vote (He didn't get that in November).

Espy does have the momentum right now, but I just see it as too far of a distance to cover. And its Mississippi.

Agree Tom, it is a real stretch to see Dem win a Senate seat in Mississippi.


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it's a slam dunk for Smith....

espy has zero chance...

For me, it will be interesting to see if even 20 percent of whites in Mississippi that will vote against Hyde-Smith.

Although its possible that the hardcore Confederate nationalists voted for McDaniel and that some less right wing Mississippians voted for Hyde-Smith to stop McDaniel and did so before Hyde-Smith showed her rear end (I'd argue that she did it years before - in her actions as Ag Commissioner) so publicly.

Its conceivable that, in a low turnout election, if African Americans and the few moderate/liberal Mississippians show up in extraproportionate numbers, that its' possible for Espy to win. Its just highly unlikely.

Hyde-Smith is dumb as a box of rocks. She’ll easily win in Mississippi.

Like any other special election, the dems (and their complicit, fake news media) can concentrate their resources, which will lead to a loss by 7 instead of the usual 10. I expect wapo's investigatory team is already on the ground, and we'll soon learn that CHS is actually the grand-wizard of the KKK.

This will then incorrectly be used as evidence of a non-existent trend.

Next cycle, the GOP will be back to winning by 10. Just like what will happen in Alabama in 2020.

(11-24-2018 04:08 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  Hyde-Smith is dumb as a box of rocks. She’ll easily win in Mississippi.

Tell me more about how everyone who receives a subsidy for their health insurance is on Medicaid.

Wait, do you even know how a deductible works?

(11-24-2018 04:19 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Like any other special election, the dems (and their complicit, fake news media) can concentrate their resources, which will lead to a loss by 7 instead of the usual 10. I expect wapo's investigatory team is already on the ground, and we'll soon learn that CHS is actually the grand-wizard of the KKK.

This will then incorrectly be used as evidence of a non-existent trend.

Next cycle, the GOP will be back to winning by 10. Just like what will happen in Alabama in 2020.

If Espy holds it to 10, that would be quite an achievement. Here's the history in MS Senate races

2018 - R by 19 percent
2014 - R by 17 percent
2012 - R by 17 percent
2010 - R by 10 percent (D was an exceptionally good candidate)
2008 - R by 23 percent
2006 - R by 30 percent
2000 - R by 34 percent

1982 is the last time a democrat won a US Senate seat in MS. The democrat party was a very different party back the focused on big labor and middle class issues. Neither of those are top 10 issues now. Democrats have Climate change as a top 3 issue, I think that's a loser.

Have they forged any yearbooks in mississippi yet?

(11-24-2018 06:18 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  1982 is the last time a democrat won a US Senate seat in MS. The democrat party was a very different party back the focused on big labor and middle class issues. Neither of those are top 10 issues now. Democrats have Climate change as a top 3 issue, I think that's a loser.

I'm not so sure that the people in Harrison, Jackson, and Hancock Counties think that Climate Change/Environmental issues are losers. After the BP spill coated the beaches in filth and ruined the tourism/fishing industries and Katrina...there's a few people down there that aren't foolish enough to support unregulated environmental degredation and man made climate change.

But that's not an issue in this race. The whole contest is about racism. Will Mississippi thumb its nose at the world again and say "screw you - we don' care if you call us racists"? Probably.

For me, it will be an interesting exercise to see if even 30 percent of white voters will actually vote for Espy.

(11-24-2018 04:20 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(11-24-2018 04:08 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  Hyde-Smith is dumb as a box of rocks. She’ll easily win in Mississippi.

Tell me more about how everyone who receives a subsidy for their health insurance is on Medicaid.

Wait, do you even know how a deductible works?

Tell me how a tax credit for a family making 400% over the poverty line is a subsidy?

Do you even know the difference between a subsidy and a tax credit?

A vote for Espy is a vote for Chuck Schumer. I couldn’t do that. If I were in Mississippi, I would probably sit this one out.

(11-24-2018 06:41 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  A vote for Espy is a vote for Chuck Schumer. I couldn’t do that. If I were in Mississippi, I would probably sit this one out.

Both of these candidates are absolutely awful. I tried to watch their debate last week and had to turn it off.

the forces of "ist" are out in full force. someone raided (perhaps) her high school yearbook, and they think they found something. now she is a racist.

she's going to win. but what the electorate needs to pause long enough to figure out is the ******* depths to which the DNC slime machine is willing to go to damage, destroy, or otherwise publicly disfigure their political opponents.

it's morally vile.

there is a special place in the least desirable part of hell reserved for these cretins of "ist".

(11-24-2018 06:41 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  A vote for Espy is a vote for Chuck Schumer. I couldn’t do that. If I were in Mississippi, I would probably sit this one out.

the folks in mississippi are unmoved by what you think that you would probably do.

(11-24-2018 06:44 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(11-24-2018 06:41 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  A vote for Espy is a vote for Chuck Schumer. I couldn’t do that. If I were in Mississippi, I would probably sit this one out.

Both of these candidates are absolutely awful. I tried to watch their debate last week and had to turn it off.

For you to agree that a democrat is awful, he must be truly godawful.

(11-24-2018 06:41 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  A vote for Espy is a vote for Chuck Schumer. I couldn’t do that. If I were in Mississippi, I would probably sit this one out.

And that's the hope I have about Tuesday. That enough of the white voters that can't vote for a Democrat will just stay home.

I don't think its going to be enough though for Espy to win.

(11-24-2018 06:44 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(11-24-2018 06:41 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  A vote for Espy is a vote for Chuck Schumer. I couldn’t do that. If I were in Mississippi, I would probably sit this one out.

Both of these candidates are absolutely awful. I tried to watch their debate last week and had to turn it off.

Yea, Espy is a very CONSERVATIVE Democrat. He even endorsed Haley Barbour for Governor. That being said, right now I don't feel like I can wait on perfect, so I support him. Nor do I think that anyone better than Espy is really available. Its Mississippi for crying out loud.

(11-24-2018 06:30 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-24-2018 06:18 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  1982 is the last time a democrat won a US Senate seat in MS. The democrat party was a very different party back the focused on big labor and middle class issues. Neither of those are top 10 issues now. Democrats have Climate change as a top 3 issue, I think that's a loser.

I'm not so sure that the people in Harrison, Jackson, and Hancock Counties think that Climate Change/Environmental issues are losers. After the BP spill coated the beaches in filth and ruined the tourism/fishing industries and Katrina...there's a few people down there that aren't foolish enough to support unregulated environmental degredation and man made climate change.

But that's not an issue in this race. The whole contest is about racism. Will Mississippi thumb its nose at the world again and say "screw you - we don' care if you call us racists"? Probably.

For me, it will be an interesting exercise to see if even 30 percent of white voters will actually vote for Espy.

Remind me who was president during the BP oil spill. Pretty sure he had the most active, highly regulated EPA ever under his watch.