(11-17-2018 07:54 AM)Native Georgian Wrote: (11-16-2018 10:43 PM)bullet Wrote: Americans would react that way. I think you are right about the British as well, but I'm not as certain.
The combination of kow-towing to Germany/France and having the £ replaced by the € .... I honestly do not believe the British people are going to play along with that.
No question at all that the UK Government has mishandled this process has atrociously as possible. For the life of me, I’ll never understand why the UK did not even try to create something along the lines of “Flexcit” and/or the Norway Option, EEA/EFTA/etc.
At this point, I’m beginning to believe (for the first time) that there is going to be a “hard” Brexit. That will be very, very painful. The Tories will be punished severely at the next election, and deservedly so. But in that scenario, Brexit will be done and it won’t be un-done.
By the way, if it is a hard Brexit, the EU will establish a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
Norway had to agree to comply with EU regulatory, taxation, and migration norms in order to be in the Common Market and Schengen. The UK is being offered basically the same deal as Norway.
That will go over like a lead balloon in Northern Ireland. And even worse, will result in a revival of the fortunes of the SNP as Scotland fears that nativist Brits will simply cancel their agreements too.
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Here's how Brexit could still be defeated.
1) May's deal fails
2) May gets tossed from 10 Downing
3) A no-confidence vote is proposed and fails. The Tories put up a hard Brexit PM
4) The Tories split into factions. Another no-confidence vote is proposed and passes. The 14 day period goes into effect.
We are probably into mid December at the earliest at this point
5) Early January. Less than 3 months till the deadline - unable to get a majority of MP's to sign on to a coalition, a snap election is called in the quickest timeframe - six weeks. Elections are scheduled for February 20th or so, around 5 weeks prior to the deadline.
6) During the chaos, the hard Brexit PM is forced to go 'hat in hand' to Brussels to plead for more time. Depending upon the polls, the EU might concede a month or two or decide to stick to the agreement and play hard ball. My guess is that the EU will punt, saying...lets wait until we know who the next government is before negotiating.
7) Elections are held. Farange enters Parliament, but the Brexit group loses to a coalition of ex-Tories, LibDems, Labourites, and the SNP. They immediately go to Brussels and plead for a three month extension, which the EU grants.
8) Another vote on Brexit is held in April. Brexit fails by 10 percent or more. The process ends there. The UK comes back into Brussels. The only concession the EU will make is to allow them to retain the Pound.
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But basically that's the only scenario where some form of Brexit doesn't happen.
Soft Brexit only happens if the UK business community convinces enough Labourites and Tories to support it. I think May needs 60 plus Labourites to vote for it. The problem is that the Labourites that might be open to doing so are from precisely the areas where the people are furious about the loss of freedom of movement.
Hard Brexit remains the most likely option, for now. This will cause all kinds of problems for the UK. It WILL cause significant financial disruption to UK industries and the financial sector and that WILL impact the lives of ordinary Britons. The Scots will continue to be livid over Brexit in general and will have more issues with any breaking of agreement with NI, fearing the precedent. Northern Ireland will be VERY restive, and it will increase calls for reunification - dramatically. For the first time, you'll find some non-Catholic Northern Irish included in the 'lets reunite' camp. The hard border will be DEEPLY unpopular in Derry. There will be a recession, and it probably will be pretty bad. And that's even if there are no major supply problems, such as groceries/fuel supply problems, etc. Basically, every bad thing that the Remain campaigners said would happen, and that Leave said wouldn't will come to fruition in spades. There's no guarantee that the pressure wont build to the point where the UK applies to rejoin the EU within 2 years though.
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Quite frankly, the smart move for Farange and his crew is to quietly allow Soft Brexit to occur then work to find a time when they can break out of the Soft Brexit accords.