(11-15-2018 06:30 PM)JRsec Wrote: (11-15-2018 06:11 PM)JRsec Wrote: (11-15-2018 04:00 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: (11-15-2018 03:47 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: People aren't being forced to remain....they're being lied to in order to be induced to leave. I don't think that if Hungary or Poland decided to say "we're leaving" that the EU would do anything but say 'good riddance'. What the nativists want is all the benefits of globalized first world economy without any of the things that make those economies possible.
The impact of Trump's bullying of the EU over funding and non-support for nativism/Putin's agenda did not result in EU compliance with Trumps agenda, but rather the creation of a military framework where the USA can only ask for their help, not demand it by virtue of control via NATO.
The EU feels it needs its own option to defend itself from Russia, because they, rightly, feel that Trump wouldn't bother to honor his commitment under the Atlantic Charter.
----
The next war, which sadly will be not long in coming, is the proximate result of the end of a worldwide system of human rights and consensus. When Putin can set off dirty bombs in British towns with impunity, when Saudi Arabia can kill journalists with impunity, when China can lock up a Million people in camps with impunity, when Russia can invade Georgia and Ukraine with impunity, then instead of resolving differences within a peaceful framework, the only thing to do to a threat.....is to take it down.
At least now, the forces of freedom are finally, FINALLY, stopping to ignore the treat of authoritarianism.
The EU has already told the Greeks they weren't allowed to have an election until they had a budget the EU liked first. That's tantamount to political warfare. The Greeks ultimately caved. But now the Italians are next up for the EU bankruptcy sweepstakes (followed by Portugal and Spain). And when the EU told the Italians their budget was unacceptable ... the Italians resubmitted the same budget. And in Italy the "this is our budget, we don't care" line is deeply bipartisan. Without a means to project force (read: a military) the EU has no way to force Italy to comply with budget demands. So either you continue to crush the Euro as a currency .... or you send in the military to crush the Italian government. One ends in the economic dissolution of the EU. The other ends in bloodshed and the eventual political dissolution of the EU. Pick one. Those are your only two options. The Germans don't have enough money -- literally -- to bail out the combined garbage balance sheets of Italy and Greece ... let alone all four of the imploding PIGS.
Let's put this in a slightly better perspective. The EU doesn't have enough money to handle Italy's debt and come out of it able to function. Spain and Portugal aren't even close to being the problem that Italy is. Greece was a firecracker. Italy is a Daisy Cutter.
Nation / National Debt / % to GDP
Italy / 2.1 Trillion / 131% to GDP
Spain / 1.18 Trillion / 98.98% to GDP
Greece / 372.13 Billion / 178% to GDP
Portugal / 214.5 Billion / 127% to GDP
Italy's Debt is larger than that of Spain, Greece, or Portugal's put together.
But the real danger beyond Italy is France. 2.38 Trillion in Debt which is 97% of their GDP.
Tick tock, tick tock, the Debt bomb is much closer to detonating in EU than most folks realize. Germany wants and needs England to shoulder the burden. Great Britain is only wise to get out now and quite frankly Merkel would be wise to wash her hands of it as well.
USA debt to gdp 110% of GDP. But many still support Trump's disastrous giveaway to the oligarchs
Germany's GDP is almost 3.8 Trillion. 64% Debt to GDP ratio. I think they can afford to bailout a few countries. Remember, you don't need to pay it all off, just provide enough assistance to get things under control.
Netherlands 54% of GDP. Total GDP 826 Billion
Ireland 68% of GDP. Total 330 Billion
Finland 61% of GDP. Total 251 Billion
Austria 78% of GDP. Total 451 Billion
Belgium 103% of GDP (down from 150percent) Total 500 Billion
Here are the countries with GDP to debt ratios less than the USA
Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, SPAIN, Austria, Finland, Ireland. And some of these are WELL below 100%.
Here are the troubling ones.
Portugal 125% of GDP - 250 billion economy
Italy 131% of GDP - 1.9 Trillion economy
Greece 178% of GDP - 200 billion economy.
The problem is that Greece's economy keeps shrinking which is turning into a never ending cycle of austerity as a recession then requires even more cutbacks. Greece's level of debt isn't new and it has been managed.
Italy is a mess and has been one for decades. They've had a 100% plus Debt to GDP ratio for at least the last 30 years. Italy's debt level is slightly higher than the 20 year average, but this is manageable.
Portugal is tiny. Its Debt to GDP has been flat for the last 10 years and has actually been falling.
--------
The EU is on a far more stable financial footing than the US is right now. There's not some radically increasing debt levels in the Eurozone. And its far lower than the USA.