(10-29-2018 05:53 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Oh boy, if that’s true and polling is 6 points off in favor of dems, 60+ seats is a possibility in the Senate.

57

OUTSIDE CHANCE

(10-29-2018 05:53 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Veteran GOP consultant Greg Keller is now projecting an 8-point victory in Missouri for Hawley.

Oh boy, if that’s true and polling is 6 points off in favor of dems, 60+ seats is a possibility in the Senate.

Brace for impact. New poll Has Sherrod Brown only +6 in OH senate race. Prior polling had him +13 to +18.

(10-28-2018 10:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli...800052002/

Be interesting to see who is right, gamblers or Nate. Republicans are the favorites to hold the House in Vegas.

Finally. So, Nate Silver is the guy who has been referred to here as "muh Nate?" Thanks for answering that mystery.

(10-30-2018 12:47 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-29-2018 05:53 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Veteran GOP consultant Greg Keller is now projecting an 8-point victory in Missouri for Hawley.

Oh boy, if that’s true and polling is 6 points off in favor of dems, 60+ seats is a possibility in the Senate.

Brace for impact. New poll Has Sherrod Brown only +6 in OH senate race. Prior polling had him +13 to +18.

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan and even West Virginia have had very limited polling. Those states will be much closer than those mostly pre-Labor Day polls show.

60 is a long shot, but possible. Everything would have to break the Democrats way to limit the Republicans to 50. I'm thinking 56 Republicans. Hold all seats, add ND, IN, MO, FL and one out of NJ/MN/WI/MI/MT.

There are some polls like the early ones in Texas and in Georgia that don't ring true. If they are off and that pattern is true across the country, the Republicans might even gain seats in the House. We'll see how big the silent majority is.

(10-28-2018 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Also, many of the other 40 some-odd contested races are razor thin one way or the other, so turnout is going to be key. While polling on turnout still gives a slight lead to democrats, actual returns in voting shows a significant lead in turnout for republicans.

How's the weather lookin' next Tuesday across key battlegrounds? Republicans historically more likely to still come out to vote in elections, even in off-year and bad weather. A national rainstorm would make the Dems all wet!

(10-30-2018 01:01 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(10-28-2018 10:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli...800052002/

Be interesting to see who is right, gamblers or Nate. Republicans are the favorites to hold the House in Vegas.

Finally. So, Nate Silver is the guy who has been referred to here as "muh Nate?" Thanks for answering that mystery.

Yep.

Late on election night 2016, when the NYT's prediction meter had moved to a 72% chance of Trump winning, Nate still gave Hillary a 78% chance of winning.

(10-30-2018 01:28 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 01:01 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(10-28-2018 10:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli...800052002/

Be interesting to see who is right, gamblers or Nate. Republicans are the favorites to hold the House in Vegas.

Finally. So, Nate Silver is the guy who has been referred to here as "muh Nate?" Thanks for answering that mystery.

Yep.

Late on election night 2016, when the NYT's prediction meter had moved to a 72% chance of Trump winning, Nate still gave Hillary a 78% chance of winning.

He has this air that he is objective, but when he did that piece a week before the election that he prefaced with, "I don't mean to scare anyone, but there is a 25% (or something like that) chance of Trump winning." No professional would say that.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl...retch.html

Good discussion on the House election. Some key quotes:

"...The consensus view is that Democrats are favored to take the lower chamber. Analysts disagree on just how large a majority they are likely to win, and how likely that majority is. If you split the RealClearPolitics tossups in half, it results in Democrats gaining about 25 seats, for a narrow 220-215 majority. I tend to think that the tossups will break disproportionately toward Democrats, and see something more on the order of a 225-210 Democratic majority, but this is hair-splitting to a certain degree...."

"Will there be a late break? As we learned in 2016, and in a less dramatic fashion in 2014, a late break in the races can alter the landscape substantially. This year, there are a lot of undecided voters remaining. Look at the most recent House polling from the New York Times/Siena: In some races, the leading candidates are at 43 percent (IA-03), 45 percent (UT-04, PA-10, NJ-03), and 44 percent (NY-11). Moreover, the trailing candidate is typically only behind by a point or two...."

"How many votes are Democrats wasting? One of the biggest news stories this cycle has been the massive influx of cash into Democratic campaigns. This initially showed up in marquee races, such as Beto O’Rourke’s challenge to Ted Cruz, but it has since filtered down into more marginal ones. Consider Indiana’s 9th District, where GOP incumbent Trey Hollingsworth has been outspent 2 to 1 by his challenger. Or California’s 1st, where Doug LaMalfa has been matched by his opponent. Both districts are heavily Republican and unlikely to flip. At the same time, the Democrats can probably use this cash to mobilize “low-hanging fruit” in these districts. In other words, Democrats may not win there, but will probably substantially overperform their typical showing.

This is relevant because Democrats right now have roughly a 7 1/2-point lead on the generic ballot, which asks which party people would prefer to have control Congress. Normally this would be enough to flip the majority. But if Democrats run up the score in districts that they are unlikely to win, suddenly that seven-point margin translates into a closer-than-expected seat share...."

"Are we relying too much on one pollster? This is a pretty straightforward concern. So far, most of our House race polling has come from the New York Times, in partnership with Siena. On the one hand, this is good, because without them we would have virtually no polling. On the other hand, polling is both an art and a science, and having a disproportionate amount of our data coming from a single view of what the electorate looks like increases the chances of No. 3 (above) occurring. ..."

(10-30-2018 12:47 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-29-2018 05:53 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Veteran GOP consultant Greg Keller is now projecting an 8-point victory in Missouri for Hawley.

Oh boy, if that’s true and polling is 6 points off in favor of dems, 60+ seats is a possibility in the Senate.

Brace for impact. New poll Has Sherrod Brown only +6 in OH senate race. Prior polling had him +13 to +18.

Ohio has a gubernatorial race and Brown's fate depends on which party is more motivated. If a large number of voters turn out to vote for Dewine then I don't see Brown winning. I certainly hope Brown gets beat. He is also a leading recipient of lobbyist funds.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opini...ists-money

(10-30-2018 01:32 PM)bullet Wrote:  He has this air that he is objective

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status...9909189632

HOUSE POODLE

(10-30-2018 02:03 PM)green Wrote:  HOUSE POODLE

On a separate note my neighbor has (I swear to Huskie Jebus) a hunting poodle and it's an awesome dog. Much cooler than the dumbace lab on the other side of me that I recently found eating baking soda in my shed

I've heard that poodles in reality are pretty mean dogs. Is that true?

(10-30-2018 02:20 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 02:03 PM)green Wrote:  HOUSE POODLE

On a separate note my neighbor has (I swear to Huskie Jebus) a hunting poodle and it's an awesome dog. Much cooler than the dumbace lab on the other side of me that I recently found eating baking soda in my shed

Poodles were originally bred as hunting dogs. Many of the poodle hair cuts were developed to keep them from getting too caught up in brush and stuff when hunting.

(10-28-2018 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  There's a couple of things going on on the house side. First, polling is significantly tightening in the CA races that dems hoped to flip. About 1/3rd of the seats needed to regain the house were being counted on coming from CA, and those races arent looking great for them now. Another issue democrats are battlig there is that there is a republican candidate for governor who is polling quite well, and he may be able to drive some votes in those particular CA republican seats to allow them to remain republican.

Also, many of the other 40 some-odd contested races are razor thin one way or the other, so turnout is going to be key. While polling on turnout still gives a slight lead to democrats, actual returns in voting shows a significant lead in turnout for republicans.

Just saw this video. Dems are doing absolutely nothing out of the ordinary so far in california. No signs of a blue wave whatsoever.

(10-29-2018 11:40 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Republicans are disenfranchised in California due to the jungle primary system. Its the reason Hillary was able to win the popular vote. In the presidential election, republicans didnt have a senator to vote for, or a house member in many of the districts.

And legalizing pot was on the ballot... but not in a way that impacted conservative CV farmers

That said, I still don't buy polls. Too many variables these days

(11-01-2018 05:46 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 02:20 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 02:03 PM)green Wrote:  HOUSE POODLE

On a separate note my neighbor has (I swear to Huskie Jebus) a hunting poodle and it's an awesome dog. Much cooler than the dumbace lab on the other side of me that I recently found eating baking soda in my shed

Poodles were originally bred as hunting dogs. Many of the poodle hair cuts were developed to keep them from getting too caught up in brush and stuff when hunting.

This. Serous canines on these canines... and smart as hell.

STANDARD poodles, that is. Minis were (like all small breeds) grossly over-bread and for bad features.