https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli...800052002/

Be interesting to see who is right, gamblers or Nate. Republicans are the favorites to hold the House in Vegas.

There's a couple of things going on on the house side. First, polling is significantly tightening in the CA races that dems hoped to flip. About 1/3rd of the seats needed to regain the house were being counted on coming from CA, and those races arent looking great for them now. Another issue democrats are battlig there is that there is a republican candidate for governor who is polling quite well, and he may be able to drive some votes in those particular CA republican seats to allow them to remain republican.

Also, many of the other 40 some-odd contested races are razor thin one way or the other, so turnout is going to be key. While polling on turnout still gives a slight lead to democrats, actual returns in voting shows a significant lead in turnout for republicans.

(10-28-2018 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Another issue democrats are battling [in CA] is that there is a republican candidate for governor who is polling quite well, and he may be able to drive some votes in those particular CA republican seats to allow them to remain republican.

This is true but let’s be clear that you mean is, he’s polling “quite well” for a Republican in California. I mean, nobody seriously believes that John Cox is going to be taking the oath of office in Sacramento on Jan. 7.

But if he loses (say) 54-46 instead of 62-38, that could definitely make the difference for some other candidates down-ballot. We shall see.

(10-28-2018 11:02 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(10-28-2018 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Another issue democrats are battling [in CA] is that there is a republican candidate for governor who is polling quite well, and he may be able to drive some votes in those particular CA republican seats to allow them to remain republican.

This is true but let’s be clear that you mean is, he’s polling “quite well” for a Republican in California. I mean, nobody seriously believes that John Cox is going to be taking the oath of office in Sacramento on Jan. 7.

But if he loses (say) 54-46 instead of 62-38, that could definitely make the difference for some other candidates down-ballot. We shall see.

Correct. He's actually a great candidate that will drive republicans to the polls across all of their house seats.

Its also a reason why Menendez may be in very serious trouble in NJ. There is no state wide governors race this year, so he cant count on votes for the democratic governor candidate to help prop him up. He has to get voters out to vote for only himself state-wide, and that is looking more and more unlikely.

I remember Dukakis having a 17 point lead.

Final numbers looked something like this:

(10-28-2018 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  There's a couple of things going on on the house side. First, polling is significantly tightening in the CA races that dems hoped to flip. About 1/3rd of the seats needed to regain the house were being counted on coming from CA, and those races arent looking great for them now. Another issue democrats are battlig there is that there is a republican candidate for governor who is polling quite well, and he may be able to drive some votes in those particular CA republican seats to allow them to remain republican.

Also, many of the other 40 some-odd contested races are razor thin one way or the other, so turnout is going to be key. While polling on turnout still gives a slight lead to democrats, actual returns in voting shows a significant lead in turnout for republicans.

RCP is saying it is a tossup now who holds the House. Its 205-201 D.

(10-28-2018 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  There's a couple of things going on on the house side. First, polling is significantly tightening in the CA races that dems hoped to flip. About 1/3rd of the seats needed to regain the house were being counted on coming from CA, and those races arent looking great for them now. Another issue democrats are battlig there is that there is a republican candidate for governor who is polling quite well, and he may be able to drive some votes in those particular CA republican seats to allow them to remain republican.

Also, many of the other 40 some-odd contested races are razor thin one way or the other, so turnout is going to be key. While polling on turnout still gives a slight lead to democrats, actual returns in voting shows a significant lead in turnout for republicans.

Maybe folks are waking up to what has gone unchecked in California for many years now . Get out the Republican Vote in California

*schedules DVR to record MSNBC, CBC, BBC all day election day*

(10-29-2018 11:00 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  

(10-28-2018 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  There's a couple of things going on on the house side. First, polling is significantly tightening in the CA races that dems hoped to flip. About 1/3rd of the seats needed to regain the house were being counted on coming from CA, and those races arent looking great for them now. Another issue democrats are battlig there is that there is a republican candidate for governor who is polling quite well, and he may be able to drive some votes in those particular CA republican seats to allow them to remain republican.

Also, many of the other 40 some-odd contested races are razor thin one way or the other, so turnout is going to be key. While polling on turnout still gives a slight lead to democrats, actual returns in voting shows a significant lead in turnout for republicans.

Maybe folks are waking up to what has gone unchecked in California for many years now . Get out the Republican Vote in California

Republicans are disenfranchised in California due to the jungle primary system. Its the reason Hillary was able to win the popular vote. In the presidential election, republicans didnt have a senator to vote for, or a house member in many of the districts.

When you get a popular republican at the state level on the November ballot, it can be a game changer there.

(10-29-2018 11:35 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  *schedules DVR to record MSNBC, CBC, BBC all day election day*

I watched CNN in 2016 and it was epic....EPIC.

For hours they scoured the Midwest for blue votes....it was EPIC.

(10-29-2018 11:49 AM)GrayBeard Wrote:  

(10-29-2018 11:35 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  *schedules DVR to record MSNBC, CBC, BBC all day election day*

I watched CNN in 2016 and it was epic....EPIC.

For hours they scoured the Midwest for blue votes....it was EPIC.

I dont know if the young turks are still around or not, but I re-watch their election night coverage quite a bit just for the pure entertainment value.

At +110, I would actually take the dems. That seems like good value.

In the Senate, 53-54 is starting to look more like 54-55 to me. McCaskill is done. Heitkamp is done. Donnelly is now on the ropes.

Cruz is going to rout beta o'soy, who honestly has turned out to be the cringiest candidate since HRC. Pokemon Go to the polls and now skateboarding. The fact that the dems rallied behind this cringe lord shows how truly desperate they have become.

McSally is a 60/40 favorite. Tester and Manchin look safe, but Menendez' seat is now in play. If that seat goes GOP early on, it's going to be a long night for the "blue wave".

Nate did get one thing right, it's like whack-a-mole in the Senate for the dems. Every time they throw money at 1 race, they become vulnerable somewhere else. I predicted this months ago whenever resident alt-leftists were getting excited over special election results. I told them (tom, in particular) at the time that special election results were NOT a good indicator, because the dems were able to concentrate all of their money and energy (and fake news) on 1 race, and that wouldn't be a viable, nationwide strategy come November.

(10-29-2018 01:25 PM)Kronke Wrote:  At +110, I would actually take the dems. That seems like good value.

In the Senate, 53-54 is starting to look more like 54-55 to me. McCaskill is done. Heitkamp is done. Donnelly is now on the ropes.

Cruz is going to rout beta o'soy, who honestly has turned out to be the cringiest candidate since HRC. Pokemon Go to the polls and now skateboarding. The fact that the dems rallied behind this cringe lord shows how truly desperate they have become.

McSally is a 60/40 favorite. Tester and Manchin look safe, but Menendez' seat is now in play. If that seat goes GOP early on, it's going to be a long night for the "blue wave".

Nate did get one thing right, it's like whack-a-mole in the Senate for the dems. Every time they throw money at 1 race, they become vulnerable somewhere else. I predicted this months ago whenever resident alt-leftists were getting excited over special election results. I told them (tom, in particular) at the time that special election results were NOT a good indicator, because the dems were able to concentrate all of their money and energy (and fake news) on 1 race, and that wouldn't be a viable, nationwide strategy come November.

But muh demografix

Are these political betting markets like the sports betting market where the goal of the book is to have equal money on each side?

Cause if it is, it's useless as a prognosticator.

(10-29-2018 01:46 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Are these political betting markets like the sports betting market where the goal of the book is to have equal money on each side?

Cause if it is, it's useless as a prognosticator.

Do you not believe in efficient markets? If someone offered the GOP +5000 (50/1 on your money) to hold the Senate, do you not believe the public would buy that down to it's true odds? Put differently, what better way to assure equal money on both sides than to price the sides at their true odds?

Betting markets are far from useless as a prognosticator. In fact, I'll take betting markets over muh nate any day.

(10-29-2018 01:25 PM)Kronke Wrote:  but Menendez' seat is now in play. If that seat goes GOP early on, it's going to be a long night for the "blue wave".

https://twitter.com/NJ_Politics/status/1...6629827584

RINGING ENDORSEMENT

(10-29-2018 02:46 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

If a “blue wave” is a rout in the Senate and a toss-up in the House, what does an even remotely fair press and a red tsunami look like?

Veteran GOP consultant Greg Keller is now projecting an 8-point victory in Missouri for Hawley.

Oh boy, if that’s true and polling is 6 points off in favor of dems, 60+ seats is a possibility in the Senate.

(10-29-2018 05:53 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Veteran GOP consultant Greg Keller is now projecting an 8-point victory in Missouri for Hawley.

Oh boy, if that’s true and polling is 6 points off in favor of dems, 60+ seats is a possibility in the Senate.

Claire got Veri-tossed. Ayeeeeeeeeeeeeee see what I did there?