Fighting Muskie
Senior Chief Realignmentologist
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RE: Biggest blunders in realignment history
(09-29-2018 01:56 AM)JRsec Wrote: Had the SEC added the Seminoles during either of Bowden's overtures in the 80's, then I think the realignment ends very differently. Arkansas definitely wanted in at at that time. With Florida State and Arkansas in hand to move to 12 then the pressure would only have built for the football first schools of the ACC.
With Florida State off of the table by the late 80's might the ACC have taken a much more serious aim at trying to lure Penn State? Would the Big East have had a much better hand to have poached the ACC? Without the hugely successful 80's version of the Noles to attract football first schools from the Old Big East. I think the big play then is for Penn State. I think the Big East realizes that Penn State won't be out there long and maybe they make them an offer of membership realizing that the SEC has moved to enhance football. That would have helped the Big East hang onto Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Boston College, and Syracuse at least temporarily.
With basketball revenue beginning to sag and the push on for football programs the pathway to riches being sold to conference commissioners and school presidents everywhere was expansion for football. It would likely have changed the dynamic of all future moves.
If the Big East snags Penn State early, the Big 10's main target area would have been down the Chisolm trail through the Big 8. I think the Big 10 would have taken Nebraska and Missouri in 1990. By 1990 Oklahoma was already quietly listening to the SEC and PAC. With the fate of the SWC on shaky ground and with key members of the Big 8 being recruited away as both the Big 8 and SWC presidents realized the deficits of their footprints in a new emerging pay model, and with Texas's desire to chart it's own course, I could see an itchy Kansas with the departure of Nebraska and Missouri to the Big 10 bolting with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, to the PAC. OSU wasn't the tag along concern in 90 that they would become by 2010.
The PAC in one move would have jumped first and jumped to 14, but looking at the WAC model and having read the super conference plan that was popular at that time they would look around for two more.
The SEC would have probably landed Texas A&M early since talks began in the 89-90 time frame. If Clemson had left the ACC to make it 14 that would have opened the door for other possible ACC schools to follow. And in 91-2 Clemson was already quietly shopping around with F.S.U. so they are likely here I believe if the SEC moves early on F.S.U..
Clemson's departure would create the likelihood for Virginia and Maryland to decide for the Big 10 over the Big East. Then the Big 10 would have gone after newly committed Penn State and Syracuse which at that time was still AAU. That takes them to 16.
Duke and North Carolina would have headed to the SEC to round it out at 16 because at the time that would have been their lean, as later when Maryland departed they called us first just in case the worst happened.
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So the PAC might have wound up looking like this:
Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
California, U.C.L.A., U.S.C., Stanford
Arizona, Arizona State, (Brigham Young/Utah, Colorado)
Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech
Needing 2 more they would have picked up Colorado and since we are talking 1990 before the rise of intense PC they might have worked something out with B.Y.U. instead of Utah.
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The Big 10 would have looked significantly different:
Maryland, Penn State, Syracuse, Virginia
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio State
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And the SEC would have been this:
Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, L.S.U., Mississippi, Texas A&M
The Big East would have survived but it might have looked quite differently for football:
Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, South Carolina
Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Cincinnati, Iowa State, Louisville, Virginia Tech
Baylor/Houston, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U.
And I am sure N.D. would have kept their partial deal with the Big East
Lots of interesting stuff to dissect here:
If the SEC takes Florida St early I think that incentivized the ACC to not only pursue expansion northward with schools like Penn St but I also think it means that they grab Miami. I think Miami goes along with the arrangement but I don't know that Penn St does. It's not exactly the type of conference the Nitany Lions wanted--not under Tobacco Road domination.
If Arkansas was looking to get out of the SWC sooner and he SEC was willing to take them on wouldn't you say that the SWC ends up toppling a few years sooner with with the SEC, Big 8, and Pac 10 all expressing interest in poaching their membership?
If Texas and A&M agree that the SEC is where to go I think that's where they end up.
If the Big Ten lures a pair of Big 8 schools and the Pac 10 comes after Colorado you probably still end up with a full/partial merger of SWC and Big 8 elements.
The East is a bit of a puzzle. If Penn St is still there and there's a hope of a conference forming I think that's where they stay.
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