First prediction of the year....

Rice 38, USM 28

(09-19-2018 02:49 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(09-19-2018 02:44 PM)Kayjay Wrote:  I have absolutely no feel for how this game is going to unfold. But in trying to figure out if Rice has a shot at a victory I discovered that the Conference USA website has a pretty good interactive statistics section that is easy to use and fairly comprehensive. (http://conferenceusa.com/stats.aspx?path...year=2018&)

The most troubling comparison to me is that Southern Mississippi is ranked 3rd in passing offense in CUSA while Rice has the 13th ranked passing defense. In most other statistical categories Southern Miss is ranked in the middle of the pack. If Rice can run consistently on the Southern Miss defense and control the clock, they have a chance to upset by holding on for dear life at the end of the game. I think there has to be a turnover or two go in the Owls way to seal the deal.

Rice 31-28 is my optimistic pick, Southern Miss 34 - 27 is my gut reaction....

They also played Jackson State where they put up 55 points and padded their stats. Against ULM, they only scored 20, although they did have 400 yards of offense.

Point being, I am not sure how real their #3 ranking is. Our secondary is pretty bad though, so it may not matter that much.

They lost their top QB (now reinstated but not expecting him to start), RB, and WR from last season's team and struggled to score in their only FBS game, vs a Sun Belt team. They gave up 5 sacks in that game and had 0 sacks themselves. They gave up 9.4 yards per carry to ULM's top running back and 94 yards in just 4 catches with 2 TD's to ULM's top WR. No reason to think our offense will take a step back this week. Southern Miss will still get plenty of yards, they probably have some quality skill players, but our defense's had its moments in each game so far, despite where it may rank - there's hope for a decent defensive effort vs the worst offense we've faced since week 0.

From what I've seen, this is a much improved Rice team, with better schemes, capable of making in-game adjustments, rested and prepared off a bye week, and hungry for a breakthrough. The 14.5 spread is way off. I'm tempted to call a blowout win, but on the road it's never that easy. Rice gets off to a good start and holds on late.

Rice 34
Southern Miss 27

35-28 Owls

Tough one.
45-20 route by USM
OR
hard fought 35-31 win for the Owls.

I think this is the game we put 4 well-played quarters together.

Rice 34. USM 31

Rice 35
USM 31

I agree. Nothing's gonna be easy for us, but I think we pull this one out.

I'm going 28-24 Rice.

Bloom's new attitude and 40% chance of rain (hurts passing game of USM) are not enough to overcome the Rock environment, Rice poor Pass D, and USM superior talent.

Game is back/forth deep into the 4Q and USM wins 31-21 with a game sealing TD but Owls/Bloom continue to be friends to both Parliament for improvement/competitiveness and Vegas by going 3-0 against the spread against FBS opponents. But Owls are going have to wait until UTSA in early-October to get first FBS win.

We win this one.

(09-20-2018 09:01 AM)cr11owl Wrote:  We win this one.

Big

Rice has scored 31, 27, and 29 points. Hard to predict Rice scoring many more points than that. I'll give Rice a bump to 34 points in my prediction.

Rice 34, USM 30

Seeing a lot of predictions that add up to ~65 total points, but the O/U line opened at 55.5 and has come down even further to 53.5. This certainly seems counterintuitive given that one of the teams in this matchup, for all the ballyhooed "eye test" improvement, nevertheless continues to sport one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 129th/130 in defensive yards per play (UConn is far and away the worst in the country but Rice is 2nd worst), 117th in points per game allowed, etc. However, USM is not well equipped offensively to take advantage and Rice is below average on that side of the ball also (USM 80th, Rice 83rd in yards per offensive play), and these mediocre offenses are both looking at fewer possessions than usual because Rice is #2 in the country for average time of possession and USM is 9th.

I'll certainly take the 2-TD underdog in a game that's projected to be relatively low scoring, but we're not winning any games (especially on the road) until this defense shows improvement. Rice 17, USM 27.

Owls will win. 3.5x10^1 to 3^3

22-20 Owls.

Looking through USM's schedule, it's tough to tell for sure much from who they have played. It is safe to say that they really haven't played any quality teams yet (and that's something they'll be able to say up until next week when they play Auburn).

They destroyed Jackson State 55-7. Usually Jackson State is better than Prairie View (but not always). Jackson State subsequently beat Florida A&M 18-16 (but Florida A&M is probably terrible - they lost at Miami 70-7 and at Troy 59-7).

USM also lost at home to Louisiana-Monroe 21-20. ULM beat SE Louisiana 34-31 and lost at Texas A&M 48-10.

I would guess based on scores alone that USM is certainly better than Prairie View by a wide margin, but is worse than either of the UH's.

(09-21-2018 06:48 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Looking through USM's schedule, it's tough to tell for sure much from who they have played. It is safe to say that they really haven't played any quality teams yet (and that's something they'll be able to say up until next week when they play Auburn).
They destroyed Jackson State 55-7. Usually Jackson State is better than Prairie View (but not always). Jackson State subsequently beat Florida A&M 18-16 (but Florida A&M is probably terrible - they lost at Miami 70-7 and at Troy 59-7).
USM also lost at home to Louisiana-Monroe 21-20. ULM beat SE Louisiana 34-31 and lost at Texas A&M 48-10.
I would guess based on scores alone that USM is certainly better than Prairie View by a wide margin, but is worse than either of the UH's.

That seems a pretty reasonable assessment.

Owls win, maybe one one point margin, but will win.

Most of the people daring to pick Rice at all do so with tiny margins.

Be bold! We are going kick their ***!

(09-21-2018 02:44 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Most of the people daring to pick Rice at all do so with tiny margins.

Be bold! We are going kick their ***!

With our lack of defensive prowess, I think our only way to beat someone is to win TOP and reduce the number of possessions in a game available to the opponent. Hard to blow-out even a wet paper bag if you only have 8 possessions a game.