As of 2:00 pm est this afternoon, the European Medium Range Weather Forecast has a marginal Category 1 Hurricane spinning of the Virginia/Maryland coast next Thursday afternoon.

Keeping fingers crossed the storm jogs back to the east before then.

(09-05-2018 04:39 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  As of 2:00 pm est this afternoon, the European Medium Range Weather Forecast has a marginal Category 1 Hurricane spinning of the Virginia/Maryland coast next Thursday afternoon.

Keeping fingers crossed the storm jogs back to the east before then.

The next run will send it to Newfoundland. Then the run after that will put it in Virginia Beach as a Category 3. Then the run after THAT will dissipate it within 24 hours. But the trends are pointing to an increasing risk at least.

It's an odd storm in that you never see hurricanes in that part of the Atlantic make their way to the East Coast. If they're that far north while still being 1,000 miles or more east of the Lesser Antilles, they uniformly start curving northwest, then north and northeast way before a need for concern, maaaaybe giving Bermuda a threat on the way. But Florence at least has a puncher's chance at EC impact, though still a long ass way away.

clt says fake news. The earth is flat so the hurricane will simply fall off the earth into space.

(09-05-2018 05:07 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 04:39 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  As of 2:00 pm est this afternoon, the European Medium Range Weather Forecast has a marginal Category 1 Hurricane spinning of the Virginia/Maryland coast next Thursday afternoon.
Keeping fingers crossed the storm jogs back to the east before then.

The next run will send it to Newfoundland. Then the run after that will put it in Virginia Beach as a Category 3. Then the run after THAT will dissipate it within 24 hours. But the trends are pointing to an increasing risk at least.

It's an odd storm in that you never see hurricanes in that part of the Atlantic make their way to the East Coast. If they're that far north while still being 1,000 miles or more east of the Lesser Antilles, they uniformly start curving northwest, then north and northeast way before a need for concern, maaaaybe giving Bermuda a threat on the way. But Florence at least has a puncher's chance at EC impact, though still a long ass way away.

Actually formed as a classic tropical wave off the east coast of Africa. Still a long way to go.

(09-05-2018 06:39 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 05:07 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 04:39 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  As of 2:00 pm est this afternoon, the European Medium Range Weather Forecast has a marginal Category 1 Hurricane spinning of the Virginia/Maryland coast next Thursday afternoon.
Keeping fingers crossed the storm jogs back to the east before then.

The next run will send it to Newfoundland. Then the run after that will put it in Virginia Beach as a Category 3. Then the run after THAT will dissipate it within 24 hours. But the trends are pointing to an increasing risk at least.

It's an odd storm in that you never see hurricanes in that part of the Atlantic make their way to the East Coast. If they're that far north while still being 1,000 miles or more east of the Lesser Antilles, they uniformly start curving northwest, then north and northeast way before a need for concern, maaaaybe giving Bermuda a threat on the way. But Florence at least has a puncher's chance at EC impact, though still a long ass way away.

Actually formed as a classic tropical wave off the east coast of Africa. Still a long way to go.

Even though it formed from an easterly wave, which is the classic genesis pathway, Cyniclone is correct that most storms in that location (it is already quite poleward) do not make it to the east coast. I'm also skeptical it will make it all the way there. Regardless, it is silly to put much stock into model forecasts over seven days out. Plenty of time to keep an eye on it.

Damn, we got a bunch of meteorologists up in here. Just FYI, I’m picturing you all looking like this:



Except clt. I’m picturing him like this:

Wow I don't even need to go to nhc anymore I can just come here! Good info guys

(09-05-2018 09:19 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  Damn, we got a bunch of meteorologists up in here. Just FYI, I’m picturing you all looking like this:



Except clt. I’m picturing him like this:

clt says she is blocking the map.

(09-05-2018 08:47 PM)Fish Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 06:39 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 05:07 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 04:39 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  As of 2:00 pm est this afternoon, the European Medium Range Weather Forecast has a marginal Category 1 Hurricane spinning of the Virginia/Maryland coast next Thursday afternoon.
Keeping fingers crossed the storm jogs back to the east before then.

The next run will send it to Newfoundland. Then the run after that will put it in Virginia Beach as a Category 3. Then the run after THAT will dissipate it within 24 hours. But the trends are pointing to an increasing risk at least.

It's an odd storm in that you never see hurricanes in that part of the Atlantic make their way to the East Coast. If they're that far north while still being 1,000 miles or more east of the Lesser Antilles, they uniformly start curving northwest, then north and northeast way before a need for concern, maaaaybe giving Bermuda a threat on the way. But Florence at least has a puncher's chance at EC impact, though still a long ass way away.

Actually formed as a classic tropical wave off the east coast of Africa. Still a long way to go.

Even though it formed from an easterly wave, which is the classic genesis pathway, Cyniclone is correct that most storms in that location (it is already quite poleward) do not make it to the east coast. I'm also skeptical it will make it all the way there. Regardless, it is silly to put much stock into model forecasts over seven days out. Plenty of time to keep an eye on it.

It is a bit further north with respect to its latitude position and still be that far out than you would typically expect to see one make it to the east coast. Living on the water near Annapolis my hope is of course that it makes a big u-turn. Bermuda might be in trouble with this one.

(09-05-2018 05:27 PM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt says fake news. The earth is flat so the hurricane will simply fall off the earth into space.

Kind of like Charlotte basketball program

ODU will be fine, we have Patt Robertson here to pray the storm away.

(09-05-2018 05:27 PM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt says fake news. The earth is flat so the hurricane will simply fall off the earth into space.

Impossible to fall off since there is a massive wall of ice around the flat earth disc.

Hurricanes that start with "F" seem to smack the crap out of NC. This one is still a ways out but I know folks back home are already talking about it. I'll give it a few more days before I'm worried. Hopefully it turns out to sea....

Capital Weather Gang, which is the Washington Post's weather blog, has an interesting story about Florence.

This is what I meant earlier about the storm being in an odd place to threaten the East Coast. This is a map of all the tropical cyclones to come within 200 nautical miles of where Florence's center of circulation is now:



Not one storm in the historical record has hit the U.S. from that spot. Closest was a couple of dying storms threatening the Canadian Maritimes.

And to speak to the variability of long-term models: Yesterday, a run of the GFS model, one of the major ones used in forecasting, had a hurricane with a sub-930 mb central pressure sitting off the Virginia Beach coast. That's not even physically possible — the waters aren't warm enough to maintain a Category 5 hurricane, and no storm that strong has ever gotten that far north, or even close.

That said, the models are more bullish about a potential hit or close call on the East Coast in about a week, so be mindful and think about hurricane supplies and evacuation routes.

(09-06-2018 06:37 AM)ghostofclt Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 09:19 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  Damn, we got a bunch of meteorologists up in here. Just FYI, I’m picturing you all looking like this:



Except clt. I’m picturing him like this:

clt says she is blocking the map.

Didn't realize a map was behind her, thanks for pointing that out clt!

Earlier in the morning most ECMWF ensemble models had it going out to sea. With the 12z update most now have it hitting the east coast. Still a decent chance it goes out to sea though.

The meteorologists I follow on twitter are saying it wont be till Sunday that we will have high confidence on whether it hits land or not. From what the meteorologists have been showing on the factors in play for where it hits it seems to be a very complicated forecast.

Make sure hurricane kits/plans are in place just in case. It is the height of hurricane season after all.

Just praying that our qb doesn’t have to throw with the wind. The residents of larchmont will not be happy

clt says the euro is strong with snow amounts, not sure about hurricanes,

(09-06-2018 04:15 PM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt says the euro is strong with snow amounts, not sure about hurricanes,

The Knight Time says the Euro was pretty damn accurate with Hurricane Irma

(09-06-2018 01:27 PM)FIU4Ever Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 06:37 AM)ghostofclt Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 09:19 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  Damn, we got a bunch of meteorologists up in here. Just FYI, I’m picturing you all looking like this:



Except clt. I’m picturing him like this:

clt says she is blocking the map.

Didn't realize a map was behind her, thanks for pointing that out clt!

What map?