Nova crushing Richmond and Maine is taking Towson to the kiddie park.

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Never like to gloat because it always comes back to haunt my teams. So I will not gloat but will merely point out that this has been a terrible weekend so far for JMU. Football lost to UNH; Wsoccer lost in the championship game to Hofstra; Field Hockey lost yesterday to Delaware in semifinal.

See, it is possible to feel good on a Saturday even when Tribe football is not even playing.

Never should have doubted that UNH coach Sean McDonnell would get the ship righted and have that team competing with the top of the league. Incredible consistency. Much respect for what he accomplishes year in year out.

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With JMU having to go to Towson next week, if they lose (finish 7-4), they more than likely get left out of the playoffs, as 4 other CAA teams will likely finish with 8-3 records, or even Elon at 7-3 and the win at JMU.

Who saw that coming?? Gotta love it.

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Who would have, also, thought that with Maine in control of their own destiny to win the CAA outright, that their only loss may be to us.

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Towson crushed Elon and Maine smacked Richmond. Crazy.

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I always liked ex-Richmond HC Jim Reid, who is now the defensive coordinator at BC. Don't know if it will last the whole game, but seeing them take it to Clemson, so far, is a pure joy.

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UNH, UR, and Nova all below us in the conference. I didn't expect that.

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UNH and Nova were both ranked in the preseason and both feature talented upperclassmen. Goes to show how unpredictable(injuries primarily) a season can be.

Nothing really here to deal with us, but here are the potential tiebreakers I saw on AGS. It all falls on Maine losing to Elon.
If Maine loses, the JMU v TOW winner will be tied with them no matter what.

If Albany, Elon, and Villanova Win:
James Madison v Maine:

If W&M OR URI Win: JMU wins AQ
If RICH AND UNH Win: MAINE wins AQ


Maine v Towson: Maine wins AQ

If Elon, Stony Brook, and Villanova win:
James Madison v Maine v Stony Brook:

Best common opponent: Towson (Stony Brook eliminated)
See: JMU v Maine


Maine v Stony Brook v Towson:

Record among tied teams: Maine 1-0; Towson 1-1; Stony Brook 0-1 (I think they go by this, and Maine gets AQ, but since Maine and Stony Brook didn’t play it could be skipped possibly).
If they skip, no common opponent of all 3 with different result, would go to Sagarin ELO_CHESS


If Albany, Delaware, and Elon win:
Delaware v James Madison v Maine:

Best common opponent: Elon (Delaware wins AQ)


Delaware v Maine v Towson:

Record among tied teams: Delaware 1-0; Maine 1-0; Towson 0-2 (Towson eliminated)
Best common opponent: Elon (Delaware wins AQ)


If Delaware, Elon, and Stony Brook win:
Delaware v James Madison v Maine v Stony Brook

Record among tied teams: Delaware 0-1; James Madison 1-0; Maine 0-0; Stony Brook 1-1 (Delaware eliminated? – if so, see JMU v Maine v SBU; proceeding as if not since Maine is 0-0)
Best common opponent (all 4): Towson (Stony Brook Eliminated)
Best common opponent (UD, JMU, UM): Elon (Delaware wins AQ)


Delaware v Maine v Stony Brook v Towson

Record among tied teams: Delaware 1-1; Maine 1-0; Stony Brook 1-1; Towson 1-2 (Could have Maine win AQ, Towson eliminated, or skipped since Maine didn’t play either UD or SBU)
If skipped: Sagarin ELO_CHESS
If Towson eliminated: Best common opponent (UD, UM, SBU): Towson (Stony Brook eliminated)
Best common opponent (UD, UM): Elon (Delaware wins AQ)

Just gave me a headache....

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You are getting very sleepy...when I snap my fingers....

Or, all of that can simply be avoided if Maine can win at home against Elon.

Fortunately for Elon, I am sure that they are going to the playoffs regardless. Otherwise, they would really be chafing at the loss of the hurricane game and their chance to be in the mix for the CAA title and automatic qualifier.

(11-12-2018 11:35 AM)Zorch Wrote:  Or, all of that can simply be avoided if Maine can win at home against Elon.

Fortunately for Elon, I am sure that they are going to the playoffs regardless. Otherwise, they would really be chafing at the loss of the hurricane game and their chance to be in the mix for the CAA title and automatic qualifier.

Elon will not make the playoffs if they lose. There will be at least 4 teams ahead of them, and 5, if JMU wins. Going to be hard pressed enough to get 5 teams in.

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full scenarios


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(11-12-2018 12:57 PM)Tribeheart Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 11:35 AM)Zorch Wrote:  Or, all of that can simply be avoided if Maine can win at home against Elon.

Fortunately for Elon, I am sure that they are going to the playoffs regardless. Otherwise, they would really be chafing at the loss of the hurricane game and their chance to be in the mix for the CAA title and automatic qualifier.

Elon will not make the playoffs if they lose. There will be at least 4 teams ahead of them, and 5, if JMU wins. Going to be hard pressed enough to get 5 teams in.

I think the CAA has absolutely no trouble getting 5 teams in and could even get 6 in if several results go their way. Elon has several things working in their favor even if they lose. Last week (before losing) they were actually the highest ranked team of all the CAA teams. This week they are ranked 14 (third CAA team behind JMU at 7 and Stony Brook at 10) and they are in a mix of 4 CAA teams in a row (Towson, Maine, Delaware are 15-17, respectively). That basically means that any of those four are interchangeable and any of them losing to any of the others should not drop them that far in the rankings. There is also the expectation that Elon would get credit for another win if they actually had played W&M.

Even better, though, is that most every other conference this year stinks. The MVC has 2 locks but it would be a gift for the Indiana St/W. Illinois winner to get in (which I think will happen just because of politics, so count them for 3). The Pioneer, Northeast, Patriot, and Big South will only get one team each (Monmouth in the Big South could finish 8-3 with an FBS loss but they have zero quality wins).

Big Sky gets 4 (including Montana/Montana St. winner). Independent North Dakota gets in if they win. North Carolina A&T gets in only if Florida A&M wins the MEAC (if A&M loses then A&T wins the MEAC and goes to the Celebration Bowl). OVC gets 2, SoCon gets 2 (it could possibly have been 3 if Furman wins, although they would be 6-4 and lost to Elon, so Elon should get in before them). The Southland gets 2.

So, with the CAA getting 6, that adds up to 25. The best bets for one of these to lose is N.C. A&T winning the MEAC, or N.D. to lose to N. Arizona. Of course, Elon would also have a better chance if Delaware lost to Villanova.

If the stars line up right, the CAA could get 6. The other leagues (especially the MVC and the Big Sky) would compensate for less quantity by having more quality -- that is, those teams are higher ranked and would therefore get more seeds (and thus first round byes) than the CAA. So the CAA gets more teams in but the other two leagues get more first round byes.

Maine beats Elon, both teams now with 6 wins. Elon missing their probable 7th win vs Tribe.

(11-12-2018 04:32 PM)Zorch Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 12:57 PM)Tribeheart Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 11:35 AM)Zorch Wrote:  Or, all of that can simply be avoided if Maine can win at home against Elon.

Fortunately for Elon, I am sure that they are going to the playoffs regardless. Otherwise, they would really be chafing at the loss of the hurricane game and their chance to be in the mix for the CAA title and automatic qualifier.

Elon will not make the playoffs if they lose. There will be at least 4 teams ahead of them, and 5, if JMU wins. Going to be hard pressed enough to get 5 teams in.

I think the CAA has absolutely no trouble getting 5 teams in and could even get 6 in if several results go their way. Elon has several things working in their favor even if they lose. Last week (before losing) they were actually the highest ranked team of all the CAA teams. This week they are ranked 14 (third CAA team behind JMU at 7 and Stony Brook at 10) and they are in a mix of 4 CAA teams in a row (Towson, Maine, Delaware are 15-17, respectively). That basically means that any of those four are interchangeable and any of them losing to any of the others should not drop them that far in the rankings. There is also the expectation that Elon would get credit for another win if they actually had played W&M.

Even better, though, is that most every other conference this year stinks. The MVC has 2 locks but it would be a gift for the Indiana St/W. Illinois winner to get in (which I think will happen just because of politics, so count them for 3). The Pioneer, Northeast, Patriot, and Big South will only get one team each (Monmouth in the Big South could finish 8-3 with an FBS loss but they have zero quality wins).

Big Sky gets 4 (including Montana/Montana St. winner). Independent North Dakota gets in if they win. North Carolina A&T gets in only if Florida A&M wins the MEAC (if A&M loses then A&T wins the MEAC and goes to the Celebration Bowl). OVC gets 2, SoCon gets 2 (it could possibly have been 3 if Furman wins, although they would be 6-4 and lost to Elon, so Elon should get in before them). The Southland gets 2.

So, with the CAA getting 6, that adds up to 25. The best bets for one of these to lose is N.C. A&T winning the MEAC, or N.D. to lose to N. Arizona. Of course, Elon would also have a better chance if Delaware lost to Villanova.

If the stars line up right, the CAA could get 6. The other leagues (especially the MVC and the Big Sky) would compensate for less quantity by having more quality -- that is, those teams are higher ranked and would therefore get more seeds (and thus first round byes) than the CAA. So the CAA gets more teams in but the other two leagues get more first round byes.

Things are more clear now. North Dakota lost, eliminating themselves, and NC A&T won while Florida A&M lost, so A&T wins the MEAC and goes to the Celebration Bowl.

The teams most likely to take those slots are Northern Iowa (6-5) from the strong MVC and either Eastern Kentucky (7-4) out of a weak OVC or Furman (6-4) out of an above average SoCon. The second team from the Southland (either co-champ Incarnate Word (6-4) or Lamar (7-4, with a weak schedule and a sub-FCS win)) will probably be left out. Monmouth is 8-3 but has a weak schedule.

So:

CAA - 6
MVC - 4
Big Sky - 4
SoCon - 3 (or 2)
OVC - 2 (or 3)
Southland - 1
Pioneer - 1
Northeast - 1
Patriot - 1
Big South - 1

Bears (#7 and AQ)

JMU vs UD

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Elon vs Wofford

Towson vs Duequesne

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