Basically Trump's plan....

1) Hang on to Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida.
2) He has to have a third party candidate in order to give country club, suburban voters a way to 'not vote for Trump, and not vote for the Democrat'
3) Demonize whomever the Dems nominate and so if they can sucker them into not voting for the Dem again.
4) Try and maximize his turnout and minimize that of the Dems

----

Here's how things look in the critical states

1) Ohio. Trump started out with actually a pretty big lead here from 2016. 8 point win for Trump and he got 51 percent. In a head to head race, the GOP appears to be losing supporters to the Dems, specifically suburban voters. He appears to be retaining the blue collar white vote in those states. There's actually a pretty good proxy race going on for Governor in Ohio in 2018, where a liberal Dem is facing off against a Trumpian GOPer in an open race. If the Dems win it, it will portend very bad news for the GOP in Ohio. Even if Rinacci wins, look at the margin. Also, Trump is going to park himself there campaigning for Rinacci. It will be interesting to see if Trump can get his voters out in large numbers.

2) Michigan. Trump barely won here and got less than 50 percent. In order to win, he's going to have to keep minority voting as low as in 2016, prevent any losses to the Dems from country clubbers, and probably find some new voters/converts to him as well. I think Trump is in trouble here, especially in a race with no real third party in the race that has traction.

3) Florida. Trump won by 2 percent and had less than 50 percent. In Florida, it actually does appear that the GOP has done a pretty good job hanging on to a margin (Rick Scott is doing reasonably well in his Senate Campaign). That being said, there have been a couple of spectacular losses for the GOP in special elections.

4) North Carolina. Trump won by 3.5 and was held under 50 percent. This is looking ugly for Trump. Demographics are moving away from the GOP.

5) Arizona. Trump won by 4 percent and was held under 50 percent. I think this gets ugly for Trump too. The population is changing, with more minorities, more transplants from California, and documented movement to the Dems among nominally Republican voters. A Democrat could win a Senate seat in AZ in 2018 and they have an outside shot at the Governor's mansion. This is looking like a battleground.

6) Wisconsin. Trump won by 20,000 votes and was held well under 50 percent. The Dems appear to be more energized and they'll actually compete there.

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In a head to head, I could conceivably see Trump winning Ohio and Florida. I don't see Trump winning PA, WI, MI, NC, or AZ in a head to head.

So we're looking at Trump and his team of domestic and foreign supporters simultaneously trying to attack the Dem and boost the independent candidate that will surely be posited. The Dems job...make this all about Trump and make the case that voting for an independent or third party is the same as voting for Trump.

Trump's approval rating with African Americans is 36%. If he can get half of them to the voting booth, he wins (easily).

(08-26-2018 11:28 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  Trump's approval rating with African Americans is 36%. If he can get half of them to the voting booth, he wins (easily).

I think the GOP should plan all of their spending and GOTV efforts with the assumption that they've got 36% of African American voters wrapped up. No need to spend money in Michigan or Pennsylvania or Florida, because with Black Trump support at 36%, you got this DJT! No need to focus resources in those states.

Paragraphs upon paragraphs of weak spin from tom, that no one is going to read.

hillary was supposedly the "most qualified" person to ever run for the presidency, and President Trump blew her out of the water. But he's going to struggle against some upstart, fringe figure like camila harris, or commie bernie (with the new rules, can he even run?), or creepy uncle joe?

President Trump may hit 350+ ECs in 2020. Maine, NH, Colorado, Virginia, and Minnesota are all in play.

(08-26-2018 11:54 AM)Kronke Wrote:  Paragraphs upon paragraphs of weak spin from tom, that no one is going to read.

hillary was supposedly the "most qualified" person to ever run for the presidency, and President Trump blew her out of the water. But he's going to struggle against some upstart, fringe figure like camila harris, or commie bernie (with the new rules, can he even run?), or creepy uncle joe?

President Trump may hit 350+ ECs in 2020. Maine, NH, Colorado, Virginia, and Minnesota are all in play.

LOL. Please explain to me exactly how Trump is going to win Virginia in 2020? Or Colorado? In a head to head matchup?

Minnesota IS in play. As is Maine, As is New Hampshire. But so is North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Florida.

Bernie cannot run in 2020 unless he changes parties to the Dems by early 2019.

(08-26-2018 12:09 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  

(08-24-2018 09:34 PM)Niner National Wrote:  I'm still skeptical he runs again because of his age.

I'm skeptical he runs again because of his treason issues.

Oh, the bitterness.

Trump will likely run for reelection in 2020. Here's why

1) He's got to stay in office so he can avoid going to jail
2) He might get impeached, but barring a 70+ seat win in the House with a corresponding 3 seat win in the Senate for the Dems, conviction in the Senate is unlikely. That scenario, while possible, is remote.
3) The GOP isn't going to provide him with a challenge in the primary. They've tied their horse and cart to him. He sinks, they sink.

Most likely result right now. Dems gain 30 or so seats in the House, and gain 1 seat in the Senate (GOP retains control with Pence).

---

Now if there's an economic recession, or proof that Trump broke the law, or a pardon of people seeking to obstruct justice, or a foreign policy disaster, then things could turn south for Trump running again, but as of today, he's running in 2020.

(08-26-2018 12:13 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Most likely result right now, Dems gain 1 seat in the Senate (GOP retains control with Pence).

This scenario is selling for 14 cents on the markets. Most likely result, it is not.

To show everyone how bad tom lies on a daily basis, GOP ending up with 51+ seats (i.e. gaining seats) is selling for 78 cents, meaning they are odds-on favorites to do so.

(08-26-2018 12:30 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(08-26-2018 12:13 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Most likely result right now, Dems gain 1 seat in the Senate (GOP retains control with Pence).

This scenario is selling for 14 cents on the markets. Most likely result, it is not.

To show everyone how bad tom lies on a daily basis, GOP ending up with 51+ seats (i.e. gaining seats) is selling for 78 cents, meaning they are odds-on favorites to do so.

Actually 51 seats is not gaining seats for the GOP. So that's actually a LIE on your part. I am just opining on where things are likely to stand after November as of today. Not possible to lie on an opinion. But it is possible to LIE when stating a fact. LOL.


Lets talk Senate races.

I think Missouri and Florida are going to be dog fights for the Dems to retain. I think that Arizona and Nevada are going dog fights for the GOP. The tossups are WV, Indiana, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. All in Trump states, but the Dems have 'maximum matchups' in Texas, Tennessee, ND, Indiana, and WV.

(08-26-2018 03:02 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-26-2018 12:30 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(08-26-2018 12:13 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Most likely result right now, Dems gain 1 seat in the Senate (GOP retains control with Pence).

This scenario is selling for 14 cents on the markets. Most likely result, it is not.

To show everyone how bad tom lies on a daily basis, GOP ending up with 51+ seats (i.e. gaining seats) is selling for 78 cents, meaning they are odds-on favorites to do so.

Actually 51 seats is not gaining seats for the GOP. So that's actually a LIE on your part. I am just opining on where things are likely to stand after November as of today. Not possible to lie on an opinion. But it is possible to LIE when stating a fact. LOL.


Lets talk Senate races.

I think Missouri and Florida are going to be dog fights for the Dems to retain. I think that Arizona and Nevada are going dog fights for the GOP. The tossups are WV, Indiana, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. All in Trump states, but the Dems have 'maximum matchups' in Texas, Tennessee, ND, Indiana, and WV.

GOP currently has 50 seats. Dems have 49. 1 is vacant. You're right, McCain's seat will be appointed by the AZ governor, and will not be at stake in 2018. That was an honest mistake, as I just learned that today. My apologies.

Even still, my larger point (GOP being odds on to gain seats) was correct, as 52+ is selling for 63 cents.

Texas isn't a toss up. In fake polls where they poll an equal amount of dems to Republicans in a R+8 state, Cruz STILL leads. Cruz is selling at a 70/30 favorite.

North Dakota isn't a toss up, GOP is a 62/38 favorite.

Tennessee isn't a toss up, GOP is a 60/40 favorite.

Indiana isn't a toss up, GOP is a 55/45 favorite.

(08-26-2018 03:10 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(08-26-2018 03:02 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-26-2018 12:30 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(08-26-2018 12:13 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Most likely result right now, Dems gain 1 seat in the Senate (GOP retains control with Pence).

This scenario is selling for 14 cents on the markets. Most likely result, it is not.

To show everyone how bad tom lies on a daily basis, GOP ending up with 51+ seats (i.e. gaining seats) is selling for 78 cents, meaning they are odds-on favorites to do so.

Actually 51 seats is not gaining seats for the GOP. So that's actually a LIE on your part. I am just opining on where things are likely to stand after November as of today. Not possible to lie on an opinion. But it is possible to LIE when stating a fact. LOL.


Lets talk Senate races.

I think Missouri and Florida are going to be dog fights for the Dems to retain. I think that Arizona and Nevada are going dog fights for the GOP. The tossups are WV, Indiana, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. All in Trump states, but the Dems have 'maximum matchups' in Texas, Tennessee, ND, Indiana, and WV.

GOP currently has 50 seats. Dems have 49. 1 is vacant. You're right, McCain's seat will be appointed by the AZ governor, and will not be at stake in 2018. That was an honest mistake, as I just learned that today. My apologies.

Even still, my larger point (GOP being odds on to gain seats) was correct, as 52+ is selling for 63 cents.

Texas isn't a toss up. In fake polls where they poll an equal amount of dems to Republicans in a R+8 state, Cruz STILL leads. Cruz is selling at a 70/30 favorite.

North Dakota isn't a toss up, GOP is a 62/38 favorite.

Tennessee isn't a toss up, GOP is a 60/40 favorite.

Indiana isn't a toss up, GOP is a 55/45 favorite.

Per some gambling site somewhere. Big whoop.

North Dakota. Inside Elections has it as tilts Republican. Cook, and Sabato have it as toss up.

Tennessee. Inside Elections has it as lean Republican. Sabato has it as lean Republican. Cook has it toss up

Indiana. All three have it as a toss up.

----

Tennessee is an interesting case where the polling appears to be running ahead of the projections. https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/201...-6308.html Looks pretty toss uppy to me. Should Tennessee be a toss up? Nope. But you have two prediction groups saying lean Republican, one that calls it a toss up and polling showing it to be a toss up. You're free to think that unliked Marsha Blackburn will win over the well liked Phil Bredesen. She might very well beat Bredesen, but....I'm good with calling it a toss up as of today. You're free to disagree.

Texas is a slight reach as a toss up, but its not unreasonable to call it that as of today. Cruz should be scared. Beto is out hustling him and by a wide margin.

My guess is that the GOP will knock off 2 Dem incumbents, and that the the Dems will win in AZ and NV.

The fact that you link to polls that are 2-4 months old says it all. You’re no longer interested in honest conversation, all you care about now is spreading faux-optimism and misinformation as if doing so will magically make it come true. It’s weird.

Dems sure do love their favorable polls. Guess they still haven't learned their lesson from 2016.

But but but but....the polls! Bunch of Verucas...

(08-26-2018 05:36 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  Dems sure do love their favorable polls. Guess they still haven't learned their lesson from 2016.

But but but but....the polls! Bunch of Verucas...

what part of "margin of error" do you not understand? TDS is taking place on both sides.

Good way to eliminate margin of error and cut through the partisan BS is to look at the betting markets.

Candidates that tom claims are in a “toss up” are trading at nearly 3/1 underdogs. Makes you wonder if he’d be willing to put his money where his mouth is.

(08-26-2018 05:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Good way to eliminate margin of error and cut through the partisan BS is to look at the betting markets.

Candidates that tom claims are in a “toss up” are trading at nearly 3/1 underdogs. Makes you wonder if he’d be willing to put his money where his mouth is.

LOL. What betting market are you referring to? Is it a really thinly traded betting pool overseas? Heck I threw down 20 bucks on Auburn winning the national championship a few years back. Didn't mean I really thought they'd actually win.

(08-26-2018 06:38 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-26-2018 05:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Good way to eliminate margin of error and cut through the partisan BS is to look at the betting markets.

Candidates that tom claims are in a “toss up” are trading at nearly 3/1 underdogs. Makes you wonder if he’d be willing to put his money where his mouth is.

LOL. What betting market are you referring to? Is it a really thinly traded betting pool overseas? Heck I threw down 20 bucks on Auburn winning the national championship a few years back. Didn't mean I really thought they'd actually win.

Was that the kick 6 year ? BTW, that was replayed last night. Saw it while jogging on the treadmill.

Man, what a lousy way to lose.

Not an Alabama fan but I feel for them a lot....

(08-26-2018 06:38 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-26-2018 05:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Good way to eliminate margin of error and cut through the partisan BS is to look at the betting markets.

Candidates that tom claims are in a “toss up” are trading at nearly 3/1 underdogs. Makes you wonder if he’d be willing to put his money where his mouth is.

LOL. What betting market are you referring to? Is it a really thinly traded betting pool overseas? Heck I threw down 20 bucks on Auburn winning the national championship a few years back. Didn't mean I really thought they'd actually win.

Bwahahahaha. So you bet on losers.

Checks out

(08-26-2018 06:41 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(08-26-2018 06:38 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-26-2018 05:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Good way to eliminate margin of error and cut through the partisan BS is to look at the betting markets.

Candidates that tom claims are in a “toss up” are trading at nearly 3/1 underdogs. Makes you wonder if he’d be willing to put his money where his mouth is.

LOL. What betting market are you referring to? Is it a really thinly traded betting pool overseas? Heck I threw down 20 bucks on Auburn winning the national championship a few years back. Didn't mean I really thought they'd actually win.

Bwahahahaha. So you bet on losers.

Checks out

I'm gonna bet 1,000,000 dollars on whoever wins the national title this year. I just need a Delorean.

(08-26-2018 06:38 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-26-2018 05:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Good way to eliminate margin of error and cut through the partisan BS is to look at the betting markets.

Candidates that tom claims are in a “toss up” are trading at nearly 3/1 underdogs. Makes you wonder if he’d be willing to put his money where his mouth is.

LOL. What betting market are you referring to? Is it a really thinly traded betting pool overseas? Heck I threw down 20 bucks on Auburn winning the national championship a few years back. Didn't mean I really thought they'd actually win.

Predictit. Very reputable site, and research project of Oxford and Victoria University.

Max exposure I believe is $750 per market (before you jump on that, that's per person, not total volume), so you can get $750 / .33 = 2,272 shares of beto. When he wins, your profit will be $1,522. Feel free to screenshot and post your order confirmation.

..."LOL".

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5313/...-2018#data