(07-28-2018 04:59 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  The CUSA deal was cut by over 80% in 2016, extrapolated that out for your AAC deal, lol

Sunbelt got extra money to cover ESPN+ costs, 400k is nothing to upgrade and produce quality content, Extrapolate that out for AAC deal

Yoou want to be logical sometimes but refuse to be logical other times

C-usa's revenue wasnt cut but 80%, c-usa lost 80% of its members and was payed for the perceived value of it's new members

No team with majority the same members has ever had a decrease ever ...

You keep posting this gloom and soon stuff acting like it's some foreshadowing of our TV deal... Our TV deal is being negotiated in 7 months .. the bubble isn't bursting by then... Your whole Disney stock stuff is questions to be answer for our next deal after this one

Or do you believe the bubble will burst coincidentallyright before the one conference you don't like.. these Disney stock stuff and losing subscribers has been happening for years. before the sunbelt's deal before the big 10 deal they all still got increases

NBC wants us, CBS sports wants us , ESPN wants us (especially for ESPN+) .. aresco has already confirmed 2 HUGE online companies (he won't say who) want to Stream the AAC but he said he doesn't want to leave TV and ESPN yet..but that is on the table
C-usa's problem= no bidders, AAC has bidders

(07-28-2018 04:00 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-28-2018 02:52 AM)Dawgxas Wrote:  Their logic is based on the old model of ever increaing tv subscribers - Pesik "never in the history has conference TV went down"

I dont fault them, they know very little about financials. Every quarter ESPN has lost revenue which has hurt DIS stock. There are cord cutters and cord nevers and it is only getting worse every quarter

As of April of 2017 (last figures I can find) ESPN had about 87 million subscribers--down from 98 million in 2013. Thats an 11% decrease over a 5 year period (not 20% in 1 year). Despite this, ESPN carriage revenue---has NEVER had a single year of decrease (due to the automatic escalator clause in all carriage agreements). Carriage revenue is in fact still growing year over year even in the current 2017-2018 period. What has Disney concerned is the pace of growth has dropped substantially--which greatly affect the stocks potential multiple.

It should be noted in the current environment, the Sunbelt quadrupled their payout from their current 7 year old deal and CUSA doubled their payday less than 2 years after signing their last deal. Extrapolating those numbers would suggest something between a triple and quadruple for the AAC. That said---its going to come down to having multiple bidders. My sense is NBC is going to make a run on the AAC---if they dont---that will have a bigger negative affect on the AAC deal than cord cutting.

Lol, Go read the WSJ article, Revenues are down but most important their operating income is down over 23%, diluted EPS are down, everything is down.

DIS is trading 7% lower while S&P is up over 11%, trading 20% lower than the rest of the market is beyond terrible and leads to zero confidence for investors.

Corporations exist to return value to the shareholders not to increase TV contract revenue just because someone from message board thinks their conference should get a raise

It doesn’t matter what Aresco says or pitches, ESPN is beholden to DIS shareholders and the squeeze is on ESPN management to turn their financials around and stop the drag on DIS.

He can cry P6 until the cows come home and he should, he’s a salesman for the conference, but doesn’t give him any leverage whatsoever

(07-27-2018 10:45 AM)rileylives Wrote:  

(07-27-2018 10:25 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  

(07-27-2018 10:14 AM)rileylives Wrote:  

(07-27-2018 09:55 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-27-2018 08:16 AM)TechRocks Wrote:  AAC schools are getting something close to $2MM per school per year now. Why would they likely be able to negotiate "multiples" of that in today's TV climate? I'm not following the logic. They can call themselves P6 till the cows come home. They're still G5's and everyone, including ESPN, knows it.

Industry experts apparently know what the AAC ratings are and, based on those, believe there will be multiple bidders for the property. My guess is NBC will be an intriguing option among the possible additional bidders. If the AAC is able to split their package between multiple networks, then it would be feasible to get a nice raise without any singe network paying much more than they do now. By the way---you do realize CUSA just got double their current contract in this same "environment" (btw--CUSA may have more than doubled their current contract depending on how lucrative the ESPN-Plus part of the deal is).

Yes. But double for you is still $4 mil. And that is a gross overpay by every measure.

I mean, you have fans that are EXPECTING $12-$15 mil per school per year.

No one I've seen is EXPECTING that. But I would comfortably expect something in the $7-8M range per school. No question.

The ratings don't lie - the AAC has drawn numbers that are far beyond any other "G5" conference and often competes well with "P5" games. The UCF/USF game drew a 3.2 nationally and was the highest rated afternoon Black Friday game on ABC since 2002.

If things were truly fair then the AAC would absolutely get $15M per team, given that our payout is completely out of proportion to the ratings we return vs. most of the P5 programs that are getting $30M per year. But things aren't fair and we'll likely end up with $7-8M/team.

Really, from your own board... people expecting that range...

“AAC = $15m... easy”

“P6 is at least worth $12M”

Even those who think the ACC should get AT LEAST 8 mill...

“We better be at least quadruple given Aresco’s comments on the matter”

“Lol. It better be AT LEAST quadruple”

“8 to 10 Million should be our asking price, otherwise leave Aresco in a dumpster in RH before the offices are relocated to Texas.”

I believe every fan base has radical, idealist thinkers. As clearly evidenced everywhere in the history of the world. But especially on this board too.

I also firmly believe the correct initials to the state of Rhode Island are RI, not RH.

Better luck next time!

GBO
GTG

(07-27-2018 10:49 AM)rileylives Wrote:  Someone should start a thread predicting the new AAC deal. That would be fun.

I’ll stick with $1.2, it’s not a knock, more than fair and is in line with what the market at our level is showing.

This is akin to an average NFL QB. You either make the big bucks or you don’t. There really are no mid range salaries, and that’s what you all are trying to justify.

Most backup quarterbacks have grossly overpriced contracts, so what you talking about Willis?

It's totally a knock, and is simply jealous bias. It's a natural thing to do, given Marshall wanted in bad. But if you don't think the American at least stays at their current deal, let alone improve slightly on it, then that shows either your personal bias, or your complete lack of knowledge. Which one is it? Last I checked, nobody wants to be called dumb, am I right?

(07-28-2018 11:36 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  It doesn’t matter what Aresco says or pitches, ESPN is beholden to DIS shareholders and the squeeze is on ESPN management to turn their financials around and stop the drag on DIS.

He can cry P6 until the cows come home and he should, he’s a salesman for the conference, but doesn’t give him any leverage whatsoever

What on earth would lead you to believe a new AAC deal wuld be a drag on ESPN earnings?

Heres a bottom line I think we can agree on. What will ultimately drive the AAC value is how many bidders believe they can make money on AAC content at a given price. As the former head of the CBS-Sports division and a former ESPN executive---Aresco knows exactly how much money the AAC is making for ESPN. He also knows that profitable contracts are not the deals causing Disney concern. If a healthy profit can be made off the AAC at a higher price---there will be competitors eager to steal it in order to obtain those profits. If there is no money to be made, there wont be much of a bump in the AAC deal. Simple economics. Aresco seems pretty confident. We will know if his confidence was misplaced within the next 6 months or so.

Anything less than $56 million per team, per year and ECU will move it's football to the NFC East.

The AAC deal needs to match the Big East in order to keep UConn from leaving.

If the number is the same or is a cut, UConn won't stick around which will hurt the AAC a lot in basketball.

(08-02-2018 06:53 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The AAC deal needs to match the Big East in order to keep UConn from leaving.

If the number is the same or is a cut, UConn won't stick around which will hurt the AAC a lot in basketball.

TODAY - AAC media $ + AAC CFP $ + AAC Bowl $ > BigEast media $

AAC's 2017 $25 million plus CFP payout goes to $2.1million per team. Independent payouts (Army, BYU, UMass): $310,000

Just to go on record in case I revisit this thread after we get our next deal, I still think we'll be getting between $6 million and $8 million per team. People guessing $10 million or more are just plain... um... optimistic.

(08-02-2018 07:51 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(08-02-2018 06:53 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The AAC deal needs to match the Big East in order to keep UConn from leaving.

If the number is the same or is a cut, UConn won't stick around which will hurt the AAC a lot in basketball.

TODAY - AAC media $ + AAC CFP $ + AAC Bowl $ > BigEast media $

AAC's 2017 $25 million plus CFP payout goes to $2.1million per team. Independent payouts (Army, BYU, UMass): $310,000

Uhhh...The Big East media deal is $4.1 million/school. Plus the Big East Tourney credits give another $2.1 million/school for a total of $6.2 million.

So Big East media$$ >> AAC media + AAC CFP + AAC Bowl.
Add tourney credits to both and the Big East >>> AAC $$$

I think anyone expecting the AAC to get a pay cut will be disappointed.

(08-02-2018 06:53 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The AAC deal needs to match the Big East in order to keep UConn from leaving.

If the number is the same or is a cut, UConn won't stick around which will hurt the AAC a lot in basketball.

Interesting. So what will UCONN do?

(08-02-2018 10:20 AM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(08-02-2018 06:53 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The AAC deal needs to match the Big East in order to keep UConn from leaving.

If the number is the same or is a cut, UConn won't stick around which will hurt the AAC a lot in basketball.

Interesting. So what will UCONN do?

Lets say, just for the sake of discussion, the AAC deal falls to 1 million per team. I suspect UConn's preferred course would be to join the Big East for all sports but football, and leave football in the AAC. If the AAC refused, then football would have to go indy or look for a home in the MAC, Sunbelt, or CUSA. Financially, it would work as they would make more from the Big East than the AAC if the next AAC tv contract stays the same or declines. The only down side for UConn is that it would cost 10 million in exit fees to make that move. My guess is there would be a lot of support to reconnect with their old Big East rivals. I bet much of that cost would be offset by some deep pocketed basketball donors eager to return to the old Big East basketball schedule.

ESPN just announced a new deal with Top Rank Boxing. I think it's for 54 fights a year. Not sure if this is relevant to the discussion.

I still think CUSA should break new ground by allowing schools to market themselves and just pay a fee to CUSA for membership. The more marketable your school is the more you can make. Marshall for instance could probably make more money just selling our games to local channels and using subscription Herd Vision as a streaming platform for out of towners and opposing fans. Then sell a la cart bigger games to the major channels. We're in a medium to large TV market and have the bulk of that market as potential viewers. It would be very similar to how things were in the 90s and it seemed to work fine for us.

Having the conference in charge of our television deals and exposure does not seem to be working out for the more marketable schools and would force the other schools to step it up.

(08-02-2018 08:31 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(08-02-2018 07:51 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(08-02-2018 06:53 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The AAC deal needs to match the Big East in order to keep UConn from leaving.

If the number is the same or is a cut, UConn won't stick around which will hurt the AAC a lot in basketball.

TODAY - AAC media $ + AAC CFP $ + AAC Bowl $ > BigEast media $

AAC's 2017 $25 million plus CFP payout goes to $2.1million per team. Independent payouts (Army, BYU, UMass): $310,000

Uhhh...The Big East media deal is $4.1 million/school. Plus the Big East Tourney credits give another $2.1 million/school for a total of $6.2 million.

So Big East media$$ >> AAC media + AAC CFP + AAC Bowl.
Add tourney credits to both and the Big East >>> AAC $$$

Did you factor in WBB 3rd Tier rights which earns UCONN another $1.125 Mil every year?

(07-29-2018 10:52 AM)Coach Bonez89 Wrote:  

(07-27-2018 10:49 AM)rileylives Wrote:  Someone should start a thread predicting the new AAC deal. That would be fun.

I’ll stick with $1.2, it’s not a knock, more than fair and is in line with what the market at our level is showing.

This is akin to an average NFL QB. You either make the big bucks or you don’t. There really are no mid range salaries, and that’s what you all are trying to justify.

Most backup quarterbacks have grossly overpriced contracts, so what you talking about Willis?

It's totally a knock, and is simply jealous bias. It's a natural thing to do, given Marshall wanted in bad. But if you don't think the American at least stays at their current deal, let alone improve slightly on it, then that shows either your personal bias, or your complete lack of knowledge. Which one is it? Last I checked, nobody wants to be called dumb, am I right?

What are you talking about? Did you read all of my posts before trying to make a dig?

(08-02-2018 08:31 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(08-02-2018 07:51 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(08-02-2018 06:53 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The AAC deal needs to match the Big East in order to keep UConn from leaving.

If the number is the same or is a cut, UConn won't stick around which will hurt the AAC a lot in basketball.

TODAY - AAC media $ + AAC CFP $ + AAC Bowl $ > BigEast media $

AAC's 2017 $25 million plus CFP payout goes to $2.1million per team. Independent payouts (Army, BYU, UMass): $310,000

Uhhh...The Big East media deal is $4.1 million/school. Plus the Big East Tourney credits give another $2.1 million/school for a total of $6.2 million.

So Big East media$$ >> AAC media + AAC CFP + AAC Bowl.
Add tourney credits to both and the Big East >>> AAC $$$

http://www.ncaa.org/championships/postse...nistration tells me that AAC CFP and other bowl revenue was $30,998,896.
Orlando Sentinel reports that "The league received more than $20 million in revenue from its television and radio rights" from conference's filings. http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/co...story.html So that's a little more than JUST the $126million divided by 7 years.

So form those sources I am getting to $4.2 million in media rights plus CFP plus bowls. AAC > BE

I'm a Navy/Patriot League basketball fan so following tournament credits doesn't have ROI for me personally. And that wasn't what the conversation was about.
However, same Orlando Sentinel article has a post season total of $42.179 million for the AAC, so NCAA tournament credits looks like less than a million a team.
To reframe my point, IF UConn got BE tourney credits right away and in full, and IF AAC tourney credits made no improvements, then just the money difference would be about 1.7% of UConn's athletic budget.

UConn may have reasons for preferring Big East over the AAC. Nostalgia for rivalries and MSG tournament might seem compelling. But the financials between AAC and BE today are not a compelling argument.

(08-02-2018 12:12 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(08-02-2018 08:31 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(08-02-2018 07:51 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(08-02-2018 06:53 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The AAC deal needs to match the Big East in order to keep UConn from leaving.

If the number is the same or is a cut, UConn won't stick around which will hurt the AAC a lot in basketball.

TODAY - AAC media $ + AAC CFP $ + AAC Bowl $ > BigEast media $

AAC's 2017 $25 million plus CFP payout goes to $2.1million per team. Independent payouts (Army, BYU, UMass): $310,000

Uhhh...The Big East media deal is $4.1 million/school. Plus the Big East Tourney credits give another $2.1 million/school for a total of $6.2 million.

So Big East media$$ >> AAC media + AAC CFP + AAC Bowl.
Add tourney credits to both and the Big East >>> AAC $$$

Did you factor in WBB 3rd Tier rights which earns UCONN another $1.125 Mil every year?

I'm addressing the misleading but common statement that Big East = more money than AAC.
Would WBB rights revert to Big East in the hypothetical scenario? If so then that is another $1.125 in favor of the AAC. I guess my assumption on that is they would be the same in either Big East or AAC and therefore not a factor in comparison.

You could also say ticket revenue changes in one scenario or the other...but now that's just guessing. And for every guess on MBB tickets going up one could guess that FB ticket revenue could go down.