Their logic is based on the old model of ever increaing tv subscribers - Pesik "never in the history has conference TV went down"

I dont fault them, they know very little about financials. Every quarter ESPN has lost revenue which has hurt DIS stock. There are cord cutters and cord nevers and it is only getting worse every quarter

(07-28-2018 02:34 AM)Dawgxas Wrote:  

(07-27-2018 08:17 PM)SomissFAN Wrote:  To actually be fair about viewership numbers, you have to look at which networks aired the game. Of course airing the game on an ESPN station will get 100 times the number of viewers that BEIN gets. If CUSA had their games on ESPN stations, and the AAC had theirs on BEIN, then the numbers would be reversed. I do believe that the AAC may have twice as many actual viewers regardless of network, but I really don't think it is as big of gap as the numbers would appear. The AAC will probably get 5-6 million a team due to better leadership at the top and better numbers. Thanks for posting the link.

He's using BEIN and Facebook games for CUSA plus ny6 and abc games for AAC.

Dont be fooled Saturday AAC intraconference are at the bottom of the list on Saturdays games

I have no illusions of changing your mind, but I do have to address your mis-characterizations of my words and data.

Nothing I've said includes CUSA games on Facebook.
Nothing I've said in this thread included the NY6 game - all intraconference, which means within the conference, which means AAC vs AAC and CUSA vs CUSA.

That does include CUSA games on BEin. Sorry your crappy contract is crappy.

It also does include two AAC vs AAC games on ABC...because Disney thought they were worth putting on over-the-air and the AAC delivered (e.g., USF-UCF better numbers than Big10 game in same Black Friday 3:30 slot the year before).

For apples to apples, I addressed the only apples available in Post #24 - two CUSA games on the Deuce. ESPN2 games - which are the AAC's middle-of-the-pack and worse with ABC and ESPN getting better games - AAC viewers crush CUSA viewers. We have AAC vs AAC game on ESPNU doing better than CUSA game on ESPN2.

(07-27-2018 11:47 AM)rileylives Wrote:  Also, you have to know how a negation is gonna play out here. The American is gonna try to add the Army Navy game and Peach bowl to this equation.

ESPN is gonna say, nope, first, we don’t have rights to the Army Navy game, and the Peach bowl is a one time anomaly.

They’ll then take the last five years, and run a comp of average based off the same comp average of your peers, IE MAC, CUSA, Mountsin West, ect.

Then they’ll come with a figure that is probably multiple in line with those viewers.

Correct AAC does not have army navy, though we do have ND Navy every other year. plus first pick of the rest of Navy games each year.
Early on I was one who thought 3.5 to 5.5 mil, As of today with all I read n #s I see, think 6 to 8 will be the landing zone.

(07-28-2018 02:34 AM)Dawgxas Wrote:  

(07-27-2018 08:17 PM)SomissFAN Wrote:  To actually be fair about viewership numbers, you have to look at which networks aired the game. Of course airing the game on an ESPN station will get 100 times the number of viewers that BEIN gets. If CUSA had their games on ESPN stations, and the AAC had theirs on BEIN, then the numbers would be reversed. I do believe that the AAC may have twice as many actual viewers regardless of network, but I really don't think it is as big of gap as the numbers would appear. The AAC will probably get 5-6 million a team due to better leadership at the top and better numbers. Thanks for posting the link.

He's using BEIN and Facebook games for CUSA plus ny6 and abc games for AAC.

Dont be fooled Saturday AAC intraconference are at the bottom of the list on Saturdays games

Your conference chose to put games on FB. Why should those numbers not be used?

Also why should it be held against us that we have superior teams worthy of ABC national broadcasts and again put a team in a NY6 bowl?

Mark Twain, Charley Brown, or somebody said: "There are Lies, Damn Lies, and then there are Statistics!" Simple truth is every conference media package is a result of what a willing seller is willing to accept coupled with what a willing buyer is willing to pay. Let's face facts:
1. Judy is no marketing guru. We need an aggressive & charismatic commish.
2. AAC dude is a Media Insider who constantly hypes his conference.
3. No CUSA Team has ever played in a New Year's Day Bowl Game.
4. Even our most successful programs don't attract the eyeballs AAC does.
5. AAC teams occupy more top 50 media markets than CUSA teams.

I'll say this, if everything was based on ratings then the MW should have been getting at least $6 milion/school 5 years ago when they added ESPN and renegotiated with CBS.

The numbers include CUSA BEIN games, which skews any kind of stat. Totally unreliable

Compare G5 on ESPN2 and the picture is very telling, Marshall vs MTSU had 453k on ESPN2 and Wyoming vs Boise State had 414k

And Here is a sample of AAC games in large media markets:
ECU vs Memphis 81k
UCF vs Temple 144k
UConn vs USF 74k
Houston vs USF 177k
Tulsa vs UConn 70k
SMU vs Cinn 102k
Cinn vs UCF 131k
Cinn vs USF 173k
Temple vs ECU 61k
ECU vs UConn 84k

Why they think ESPN is going to pony up 10x their current contract makes no sense at all

(07-28-2018 11:28 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  I'll say this, if everything was based on ratings then the MW should have been getting at least $6 milion/school 5 years ago when they added ESPN and renegotiated with CBS.

Very true, their view is based in vacuum on old TV model of ever increasing subscribers. That ship has sailed

(07-28-2018 11:33 AM)Dawgxas Wrote:  The numbers include CUSA BEIN games, which skews any kind of stat. Totally unreliable

Compare G5 on ESPN2 and the picture is very telling, Marshall vs MTSU had 453k on ESPN2 and Wyoming vs Boise State had 414k

And Here is a sample of AAC games on ESPN2:

Temple Cincinnati 697k
Memphis Tulsa 683k
Memphis UCF 442k

You say you want apples to apples and there they are - as opposed to you pulling AAC ESPNU games. And the AAC top matchups are already up on ESPN or ABC (that Memphis UCF was early early in the season).

(07-28-2018 11:33 AM)Dawgxas Wrote:  The numbers include CUSA BEIN games, which skews any kind of stat. Totally unreliable

Compare G5 on ESPN2 and the picture is very telling, Marshall vs MTSU had 453k on ESPN2 and Wyoming vs Boise State had 414k

And Here is a sample of AAC games in large media markets:
ECU vs Memphis 81k
UCF vs Temple 144k
UConn vs USF 74k
Houston vs USF 177k
Tulsa vs UConn 70k
SMU vs Cinn 102k
Cinn vs UCF 131k
Cinn vs USF 173k
Temple vs ECU 61k
ECU vs UConn 84k

Why they think ESPN is going to pony up 10x their current contract makes no sense at all

not a single one of these games are good vs good aac teams
except Houston vs USF 177k....this was on espnu, not espn2

also edit, most of the games you posted are on espnu..not espn2, for a second i was "our bad teams got a suspiciously large amount of espn2 games" ...

i just checked the only good game of the aac on espn2 is ucf/memphis (part 1) in the beginning of the season...no one thought ucf was good then (second meeting was almost 4mil viewers)

but unlike you i dont like to use manipulated arguments/stats, i perfectly know using tv rating from different channels isnt a fair comparison....if you want to argue value, i prefer to use game selection to what channel.
i dont pretend to know the metrics the networks are using. but we dont need to know, you can tell by the results; what they decide to air on what channel..

the aac has a min of 4 abc games per contract, but espn has chosen atleast 5 every year..and on the bottom end, cbssports has chosen uconn vs tulane games late in the season (games between 2 1-7 teams) over games vs 2 8win c-usa teams, a regular occurrence. cbssports takes WAY more games than we have contracted with them, even though the only games available from us are bad games .. (they could lease good c-usa or sunbelt games instead but dont)

look at next season ...texas tech is projected to be horrible, fox (has no contract with the AAC) has chosen to put Houston vs TTech on Fox OTA (techs only announced OTA, Houston already has 3 OTAs announced, incase you want to say its bcuz of tech)....c-usa only has 15 televised games total, cbssports chose to use 1 of the 15 on Houston vs Rice (rice a projected bottom team in the c-usa)

$34.6 Mil per school.

(07-28-2018 02:52 AM)Dawgxas Wrote:  Their logic is based on the old model of ever increaing tv subscribers - Pesik "never in the history has conference TV went down"

I dont fault them, they know very little about financials. Every quarter ESPN has lost revenue which has hurt DIS stock. There are cord cutters and cord nevers and it is only getting worse every quarter

As of April of 2017 (last figures I can find) ESPN had about 87 million subscribers--down from 98 million in 2013. Thats an 11% decrease over a 5 year period (not 20% in 1 year). Despite this, ESPN carriage revenue---has NEVER had a single year of decrease (due to the automatic escalator clause in all carriage agreements). Carriage revenue is in fact still growing year over year even in the current 2017-2018 period. What has Disney concerned is the pace of growth has dropped substantially--which greatly affect the stocks potential multiple.

It should be noted in the current environment, the Sunbelt quadrupled their payout from their current 7 year old deal and CUSA doubled their payday less than 2 years after signing their last deal. Extrapolating those numbers would suggest something between a triple and quadruple for the AAC. That said---its going to come down to having multiple bidders. My sense is NBC is going to make a run on the AAC---if they dont---that will have a bigger negative affect on the AAC deal than cord cutting.

(07-28-2018 01:40 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  $34.6 Mil per school.

or $100 mil per school, that's just as reasonable as 10 million

Here are the accurate numbers from May2018

ESPN lost 500k subscribers in April 2018 alone, down to 86 million from a peak over 100 million at the beginning of 2012. 14% over 6.5 year period, 22% forward out 10 years.

“And the start of this spring was brutal for ESPN, costing the network 500,000 subscribers, or nearly 17,000 lost subscribers a day in the month of April. Putting that into context, this is $48 million in revenue that ESPN has lost forever. (That’s $8 a month x 500,000 lost subscribers x 12 months in a year. The loss in subscribers puts ESPN down to just north of 86 million, which is a precipitous decline from the 100 million subscribers the network had as recently as the end of 2011…The larger story here remains that ESPN, which is the most expensive channel on cable by far, loses more than any other channel with cord cutting because their revenue takes the biggest hit. “



https://www.dailywire.com/news/30137/esp...nk-berrien

https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/espn-...ers-april/

ESPN has hurt DIS stock so much it had drop over 7.5% last year, while the S&P was up over 11%.

That is no bueno, when every other equity is booming and you are lagging the overall market by almost 20%.

This puts pressure on the executives to make decisions on the bottom line. I think ESPN+ will help because the schools will foot the production costs while giving the schools a small increase to cover the expenses. Win win for ESPN

As discussed at the Tulane board meeting, I think the AAC will get an increase like the Sunbelt to cover ESPN+ costs. Aresco will spin it as an increase but really it will be a win for ESPN to help establish their streaming service for little to nothing in production costs

Wall Street Journal article from May about ESPN, very telling, operating profit down 10% in 2017 and the straight down trend chart of their Subscriber base is eye opening.

"Linda Cohn, one of ESPN’s most prominent female anchors, in April 2017 gave a radio interview opining that ESPN’s politics were pushing away viewers and the network had overpaid for NBA rights."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-weake...1527176425

The CUSA deal was cut by over 80% in 2016, extrapolated that out for your AAC deal, lol

Sunbelt got extra money to cover ESPN+ costs, 400k is nothing to upgrade and produce quality content, Extrapolate that out for AAC deal

(07-28-2018 12:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(07-28-2018 11:33 AM)Dawgxas Wrote:  The numbers include CUSA BEIN games, which skews any kind of stat. Totally unreliable

Compare G5 on ESPN2 and the picture is very telling, Marshall vs MTSU had 453k on ESPN2 and Wyoming vs Boise State had 414k

And Here is a sample of AAC games on ESPN2:

Temple Cincinnati 697k
Memphis Tulsa 683k
Memphis UCF 442k

You say you want apples to apples and there they are - as opposed to you pulling AAC ESPNU games. And the AAC top matchups are already up on ESPN or ABC (that Memphis UCF was early early in the season).

Yep And that is nowhere near 23x more rating as you posted early. More like 1.3x the rating

Posting bogus stats just makes every other post less credible, same for AttackCoog extrapolations. It's funny because none of these are based in logic or reality

Frankly, I wish any of the non-cartel conferences could got a helluva lot more money at renewal time cause a rising tide for any non-cartel conference gives all of the rest at least a modicum of negotiating leverage when our own conference has to deal with renewal.

(07-28-2018 05:18 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  

(07-28-2018 12:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(07-28-2018 11:33 AM)Dawgxas Wrote:  The numbers include CUSA BEIN games, which skews any kind of stat. Totally unreliable

Compare G5 on ESPN2 and the picture is very telling, Marshall vs MTSU had 453k on ESPN2 and Wyoming vs Boise State had 414k

And Here is a sample of AAC games on ESPN2:

Temple Cincinnati 697k
Memphis Tulsa 683k
Memphis UCF 442k

You say you want apples to apples and there they are - as opposed to you pulling AAC ESPNU games. And the AAC top matchups are already up on ESPN or ABC (that Memphis UCF was early early in the season).

Yep And that is nowhere near 23x more rating as you posted early. More like 1.3x the rating

Posting bogus stats just makes every other post less credible, same for AttackCoog extrapolations. It's funny because none of these are based in logic or reality

Your best, our middle of the pack and lower...and its ONLY multiples better.
We have AAC vs AAC games with ten times your biggest number, too...and the conference has ND@Navy every other year.

"But those are over the air, don't compare them to our games!"
You know why they're over the air? Because they're worth it to the networks and deliver the viewers.