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Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
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ColOwl Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
You heard it here first (no preference expressed by order):

Gov. Steve Bullock, Montana
Gov. Jay Islee, Washington
07-30-2018 11:41 PM
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RiceLad15 Online
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Post: #22
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(07-30-2018 11:00 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(07-30-2018 05:35 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(07-30-2018 05:05 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(07-30-2018 04:51 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(07-30-2018 04:45 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Melania is running for President?

Really? You don't get that joke?

I get the joke. FTR, good one.


BUT...

I guess you don't get the point that only one of those two plagiarists wants to be president, or is wanted by others to be president. so a bit apples to oranges.

03-melodramatic

so, in your opinion, a presidential candidate committing a crime snd the spouse of a candidate committing the same crime, is a wash? No wonder you wanted Hillary.

Oh hell, I was just making a joke.

Plagiarism isn’t always a crime, but it is always an ethical issue. I thought you were the one who didn’t care abouthow ethical a POTUS was?

This is the stupidest argument I’ve been on in the Parliament - sorry that I made a joke about Melania’s speech writer plagiarizing a portion of an Obama speech. I was not drawing a morale equivalence, just a factual one.
07-31-2018 07:07 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(07-31-2018 07:07 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(07-30-2018 11:00 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(07-30-2018 05:35 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(07-30-2018 05:05 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(07-30-2018 04:51 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Really? You don't get that joke?

I get the joke. FTR, good one.


BUT...

I guess you don't get the point that only one of those two plagiarists wants to be president, or is wanted by others to be president. so a bit apples to oranges.

03-melodramatic

so, in your opinion, a presidential candidate committing a crime snd the spouse of a candidate committing the same crime, is a wash? No wonder you wanted Hillary.

Oh hell, I was just making a joke.

Plagiarism isn’t always a crime, but it is always an ethical issue. I thought you were the one who didn’t care abouthow ethical a POTUS was?

This is the stupidest argument I’ve been on in the Parliament - sorry that I made a joke about Melania’s speech writer plagiarizing a portion of an Obama speech. I was not drawing a morale equivalence, just a factual one.

I guess I missed the J/K. Sorry about that.
07-31-2018 09:21 AM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(07-30-2018 11:41 PM)ColOwl Wrote:  You heard it here first (no preference expressed by order):

Gov. Steve Bullock, Montana
Gov. Jay Islee, Washington

I'll confess I've never heard of either...any reason why those two?
07-31-2018 02:42 PM
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JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
I’ll play.

I should point out that I am terrible at this. Case in point: I started out 2008 supporting Edwards. Though in my defense, I think his “Two Americas” theme did tap into things later tapped by Sanders, and to some extent Trump. If only he didn’t turn out to be a sleazebag of a human being.

Anyway, I think the single most important thing determining the field is whether Biden and/or Deval Patrick run. If just one of them runs, they will probably have the support of Obamaworld. I don’t know that Biden is anybody’s first choice, but he’s probably a lot of people’s second or third. And people seem to think he has the most appeal in PA, MI, WI. And unless the dems can flip Florida, they need to flip all three of those back. (I guess NC and AZ, and even GA are plausible flips, as is MN in the other direction.) Patrick works at Bain now, and the thinking is he can motivate the Obama coalition while also being reassuring to corporate America, and anti-Trump Republicans.

I’m not as enamored with Warren as a presidential candidate as many of my friends are, but I suspect she runs, especially if Bernie doesn’t. Anti-free trade was a big part of the Bernie platform, and I think Trump may actually have discredited that by the time the primaries start.

Hard to know what to make of Booker. Definitely an interesting guy. I mean the guy got out of Stanford and Oxford and went and lived in some pretty rough areas in Newark. Not a one week publicity stunt, but for years. And there was the time he literally ran into a burning building to save an old woman. Vegan, D1 football player. Bachelor.

Kamala Harris may be my first choice currently, or maybe Biden-Harris. Just a gut feeling. I’ve been less impressed with Gillibrand as time has gone on, but I don’t really have a strong opinion either way yet.

But who knows, maybe Jerry Brown will run and use California Uber Alles as his campaign song.
07-31-2018 03:44 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(07-31-2018 03:44 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  I’ll play.
I should point out that I am terrible at this. Case in point: I started out 2008 supporting Edwards. Though in my defense, I think his “Two Americas” theme did tap into things later tapped by Sanders, and to some extent Trump. If only he didn’t turn out to be a sleazebag of a human being.
Anyway, I think the single most important thing determining the field is whether Biden and/or Deval Patrick run. If just one of them runs, they will probably have the support of Obamaworld. I don’t know that Biden is anybody’s first choice, but he’s probably a lot of people’s second or third. And people seem to think he has the most appeal in PA, MI, WI. And unless the dems can flip Florida, they need to flip all three of those back. (I guess NC and AZ, and even GA are plausible flips, as is MN in the other direction.) Patrick works at Bain now, and the thinking is he can motivate the Obama coalition while also being reassuring to corporate America, and anti-Trump Republicans.
I’m not as enamored with Warren as a presidential candidate as many of my friends are, but I suspect she runs, especially if Bernie doesn’t. Anti-free trade was a big part of the Bernie platform, and I think Trump may actually have discredited that by the time the primaries start.
Hard to know what to make of Booker. Definitely an interesting guy. I mean the guy got out of Stanford and Oxford and went and lived in some pretty rough areas in Newark. Not a one week publicity stunt, but for years. And there was the time he literally ran into a burning building to save an old woman. Vegan, D1 football player. Bachelor.
Kamala Harris may be my first choice currently, or maybe Biden-Harris. Just a gut feeling. I’ve been less impressed with Gillibrand as time has gone on, but I don’t really have a strong opinion either way yet.
But who knows, maybe Jerry Brown will run and use California Uber Alles as his campaign song.

I've just read and reread your post about three times, and my reaction to every name you mention is that I want to puke. I could possibly get behind a democrat centrist--I really kind of like the blue dogs--but I don't see any there. Joe Manchin might be the last one standing, and I think he may be in some political danger at home right now. And all the likely candidates you mention strike me as being left off left wing.

Just wondering, who do you think is the most moderate or centrist democrat in the field? I don't see any Bill Clintons or JFKs.

And I always thought Johnny the Ambulance Chaser was a sleazy human being. I was pissed off enough at Bush that I might have voted for Kerry in 2004, but no way with Edwards on the ticket.
(This post was last modified: 07-31-2018 06:07 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
07-31-2018 06:05 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(07-31-2018 03:44 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  Kamala Harris may be my first choice currently,

Why?
07-31-2018 07:47 PM
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Baconator Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(07-29-2018 09:21 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Eric Holder has expressed interest.

Holder-Weiner 2020
08-01-2018 04:51 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(07-31-2018 07:47 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(07-31-2018 03:44 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  Kamala Harris may be my first choice currently,

Why?

seriously, why?
08-01-2018 05:12 PM
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ausowl Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
Biden-Landrieu

Biden brings some hefty baggage, but he knows the ropes and how to close.
08-01-2018 05:32 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
democrats should be good at horse racing, simce the horses are always turning left.
08-03-2018 01:14 PM
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JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(07-31-2018 06:05 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Just wondering, who do you think is the most moderate or centrist democrat in the field? I don't see any Bill Clintons or JFKs.


Well, given that you think Obama is a communist, I suspect there won’t be any Dems you like this time around.

Anyway, I believe the only major official candidate so far is John Delaney, who is generally thought of as a moderate/centrist, and is a former CEO who founded two companies. I’m not going to claim I knew any of this before googling him.

Also, if you want a president who looks like Will Ferrell playing Captain Stubing from the Love Boat, Delaney’s your guy.

Looking at the talked about potential candidates, the ones that might have the most opposition from the left are probably Cuomo and Hickenlooper. Deval Patrick, Cory Booker, and maybe Biden will have some opposition to the left based on ties to Wall Street and venture capital. Gillibrand was a DLC type in the House, but she’s long since moved away from that.

I hear Kloubachar talked about as a centrist Midwesterner, but honestly don’t know too much about her.

Ditto for Bullock in Montana.

I guess when I say "the left" I'm talking about the Sanders/Warren wing.
08-03-2018 01:32 PM
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JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(08-01-2018 04:51 PM)Baconator Wrote:  
(07-29-2018 09:21 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Eric Holder has expressed interest.

Holder-Weiner 2020

03-lmfao
08-03-2018 01:33 PM
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JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(07-31-2018 07:47 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(07-31-2018 03:44 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  Kamala Harris may be my first choice currently,

Why?

Like I said, largely just a gut feeling. But I think it comes down to a few things. Her reputation is good among colleagues as smart, motivated, thoughtful, etc. The antithesis of Trump. (IMHO) Think she comes across as likeable, but also has been tough and on point in questioning in the hearings I’ve heard.

I think she could bridge some of the divides leftover from the last primary. Most Dems are not hardcore Sanders or Clinton people, but those that are are still really angry at each other. Obviously not as experienced as others in the field. Though certainly more so than Trump.

She’s been pretty outspoken on what to me is probably the single biggest outrage of the Trump administration – the family separations.

As the child of immigrants I think she’d also be a good foil to Trump. (And not just immigrants, but immigrants from s***hole countries!)

I also think Biden-Harris might be the strongest ticket.

But who knows. Plenty of candidates who had high expectations flame out in presidential races.
08-03-2018 01:47 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(08-03-2018 01:47 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  
(07-31-2018 07:47 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(07-31-2018 03:44 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  Kamala Harris may be my first choice currently,
Why?
Like I said, largely just a gut feeling. But I think it comes down to a few things. Her reputation is good among colleagues as smart, motivated, thoughtful, etc. The antithesis of Trump. (IMHO) Think she comes across as likeable, but also has been tough and on point in questioning in the hearings I’ve heard.
I think she could bridge some of the divides leftover from the last primary. Most Dems are not hardcore Sanders or Clinton people, but those that are are still really angry at each other. Obviously not as experienced as others in the field. Though certainly more so than Trump.
She’s been pretty outspoken on what to me is probably the single biggest outrage of the Trump administration – the family separations.
As the child of immigrants I think she’d also be a good foil to Trump. (And not just immigrants, but immigrants from s***hole countries!)
I also think Biden-Harris might be the strongest ticket.
But who knows. Plenty of candidates who had high expectations flame out in presidential races.

Oh, dear God, I hope not. Crazy Joe and Commie Kamala might be my worst nightmare.
08-03-2018 05:39 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(08-03-2018 01:47 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  
(07-31-2018 07:47 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(07-31-2018 03:44 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  Kamala Harris may be my first choice currently,

Why?

Like I said, largely just a gut feeling. But I think it comes down to a few things. Her reputation is good among colleagues as smart, motivated, thoughtful, etc. The antithesis of Trump. (IMHO) Think she comes across as likeable, but also has been tough and on point in questioning in the hearings I’ve heard.

I think she could bridge some of the divides leftover from the last primary. Most Dems are not hardcore Sanders or Clinton people, but those that are are still really angry at each other. Obviously not as experienced as others in the field. Though certainly more so than Trump.

She’s been pretty outspoken on what to me is probably the single biggest outrage of the Trump administration – the family separations.

As the child of immigrants I think she’d also be a good foil to Trump. (And not just immigrants, but immigrants from s***hole countries!)

I also think Biden-Harris might be the strongest ticket.

But who knows. Plenty of candidates who had high expectations flame out in presidential races.

YOU said SHE would be YOUR first choice. Using the standard the Democrats set for Trump, you lied. Why is she your first choice?? Is she the only one with a reputation as smart, thoughtful, and motivated? Where do Biden and Warren lack on that profile?

Trump looks mighty motivated to me. I don't know where you get the idea he is stupid. (But I have a good idea). Thoughtful, I have no idea, but I will not vote for somebody just because they bring balloon animals for a birthday.

I think Harris is a front runner because she is a black female liberal. I don't care about the first two, but the Democrats do. I care a lot about the last one.
08-03-2018 05:53 PM
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JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(08-03-2018 05:53 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-03-2018 01:47 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  
(07-31-2018 07:47 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(07-31-2018 03:44 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  Kamala Harris may be my first choice currently,

Why?

Like I said, largely just a gut feeling. But I think it comes down to a few things. Her reputation is good among colleagues as smart, motivated, thoughtful, etc. The antithesis of Trump. (IMHO) Think she comes across as likeable, but also has been tough and on point in questioning in the hearings I’ve heard.

I think she could bridge some of the divides leftover from the last primary. Most Dems are not hardcore Sanders or Clinton people, but those that are are still really angry at each other. Obviously not as experienced as others in the field. Though certainly more so than Trump.

She’s been pretty outspoken on what to me is probably the single biggest outrage of the Trump administration – the family separations.

As the child of immigrants I think she’d also be a good foil to Trump. (And not just immigrants, but immigrants from s***hole countries!)

I also think Biden-Harris might be the strongest ticket.

But who knows. Plenty of candidates who had high expectations flame out in presidential races.


YOU said SHE would be YOUR first choice. Using the standard the Democrats set for Trump, you lied. Why is she your first choice??

????

In, my original post said "Kamala Harris may be my first choice currently, or maybe Biden-Harris. Just a gut feeling." You asked me to expand on that. I did. It's early. No major candidate has actually declared yet, unless you count Delaney. Once we get people officially campaigning, I may change my mind. I don't actually have to decide until the Texas primary, you know.

(08-03-2018 05:53 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Is she the only one with a reputation as smart, thoughtful, and motivated? Where do Biden and Warren lack on that profile?

I didn't say she was the only one, just throwing out some first impressions. Warren is definitely smart and thoughtful, honestly don't know if she's motivated to run for President. Biden definitely has some speak before he thinks moments.

(08-03-2018 05:53 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Trump looks mighty motivated to me. I don't know where you get the idea he is stupid. (But I have a good idea). Thoughtful, I have no idea, but I will not vote for somebody just because they bring balloon animals for a birthday.

If you meant I got the idea that Trump was not very smart by listening to the things he says, reading the things he writes, and observing the things he does, then yes, you are correct. Maybe it's all an act, I don't know. By thoughtful, I meant in the deliberative, analytical sense, and intentionally paired it with smart. Wasn't talking about the other sort of thoughtful; I suspect most of the human race is more thoughtful than Trump in that regard.

What do you have against balloon animals, anyway?

(08-03-2018 05:53 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I think Harris is a front runner because she is a black female liberal. I don't care about the first two, but the Democrats do. I care a lot about the last one.

If you are arguing that her ethnic background (black and asian), her experience as the child of immigrants, and her gender work in her favor, you are no doubt correct. Minorities, immigrants, and many women (look at Trump's numbers with women outside of non-college educated white women) feel like this administration is openly hostile to them simply because of who they are. That's a choice Trump and the Republicans have made.
08-05-2018 03:02 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
When I asked why she was currently your first choice you said:

"I think it comes down to a few things. Her reputation is good among colleagues as smart, motivated, thoughtful, etc."


That implies that your second through nth choices do not score as well as her on those qualities.

I notice you have yet to say her ideas for the country are good. The only thing you have mentioned is that she is against family separations, as I am. I am thoughtful, motivated, and smart. Why not vote for me?
08-05-2018 04:03 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
(08-05-2018 03:02 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  Minorities, immigrants, and many women (look at Trump's numbers with women outside of non-college educated white women) feel like this administration is openly hostile to them simply because of who they are. That's a choice Trump and the Republicans have made.

That sounds more like a choice that those minorities, immigrants, and many women have made.

I don't care for Harris because I spent most of my adult life fighting communism, and I didn't think I was doing that so we could elect a communist. I remember a bunch of comments about how our parents fought against fascism, and how would they feel for us to put a fascist in power (of course, the person about whom that comment was made is no more fascist than I, and certainly less fascist than European "socialists," but that's beside the point).
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2018 04:53 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
08-05-2018 04:47 PM
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Post: #40
RE: Democratic Presidential Horse Race thread
I could vote for a blue dog democrat against Trump. Do you see one out there? I don't. All I see is left of left.

I can remember when Joe Biden and Hillary were considered left-wing democrats. Now they are conservative or middle of the road democrats. There simply is no democrat, with the possible exception of Joe Manchin, who represents anything that I could vote for in terms of issue positions.
08-05-2018 04:50 PM
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