https://www.dailysignal.com/2018/07/03/i...ng-itself/

Yes, there is a war going on in Europe. I don't agree with the author that we are seeing the beginning of WWIII, but I agree that Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have reason for concern.

And like Ukraine, when was the last time you read about Iraq and the remnants of ISIS and the Iraqi/Kurd tensions or the Turkish attacks on Iraqi Kurdish towns? When was the last time you read about the war(s) in Syria-Turkey on the Kurds, ISIS on everyone, Syrian government/Iranians/Hezbollah/Russia on Syrian rebels? Or on the continuing skirmishes between Azerbaijan and Armenia? There is almost nothing on that that isn't Armenian or Azeri news media propaganda pieces.

Instead, its how many scoops of ice cream Donald Trump had. Or Melania's shirt.

I find Peter Zeihan's perspective interesting. He analyzes geopolitical trends based on geography and demographics.

Europe, from the Alps, Rhine, and Ardennes on the west to the Urals on the east, is basically one big flat plain, with no defensible borders. It's why Germany became so warlike (they had no defensible border to the east), why Russians are so paranoid (they have no defensible border to the west), why France and Russia were historic allies (with the common opponent Prussia/Germany), and why Poland has moved around so much over the centuries (the Poles had no borders at all and found one home after another in between where Russia and Germany were at the time). Visiting Gdansk last summer, I found it interesting that the city was about 80% German up to WWII. Afterwards, the Germans all moved out, and Poles moved in.

During the Iron Curtain days, Russia at least had an anchor on one flank with the Carpathians in satellite Romania. Now Puitn looks west at a 2500 mile border that he can't defend. Demographically, Russia is running out of 20-somethings, and they're not making many more of them. So Putin has about a 10-year window before the Red Army runs out of people to fill the slots. He either moves to shore up his borders now, or in the next 5 years or so, never. He has one weapon--most of Europe depends on Russian oil and gas, even more so as the North Sea starts to wind down. Will be very interesting, to say the least, how this all plays out. "May you live in interesting times."

(07-05-2018 11:33 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I find Peter Zeihan's perspective interesting. He analyzes geopolitical trends based on geography and demographics.

Europe, from the Alps, Rhine, and Ardennes on the west to the Urals on the east, is basically one big flat plain, with no defensible borders. It's why Germany became so warlike (they had no defensible border to the east), why Russians are so paranoid (they have no defensible border to the west), why France and Russia were historic allies (with the common opponent Prussia/Germany), and why Poland has moved around so much over the centuries (the Poles had no borders at all and found one home after another in between where Russia and Germany were at the time). Visiting Gdansk last summer, I found it interesting that the city was about 80% German up to WWII. Afterwards, the Germans all moved out, and Poles moved in.

During the Iron Curtain days, Russia at least had an anchor on one flank with the Carpathians in satellite Romania. Now Puitn looks west at a 2500 mile border that he can't defend. Demographically, Russia is running out of 20-somethings, and they're not making many more of them. So Putin has about a 10-year window before the Red Army runs out of people to fill the slots. He either moves to shore up his borders now, or in the next 5 years or so, never. He has one weapon--most of Europe depends on Russian oil and gas, even more so as the North Sea starts to wind down. Will be very interesting, to say the least, how this all plays out. "May you live in interesting times."

After WW2, the Germans didn't MOVE out of the eastern half of their country. They were FORCED out by the Russians. Nearly 20 million German civilians were forced out of their centuries-old homelands in Eastern Europe AFTER WW2 was over. About 10% of them died in the process.

Russia annexed the Eastern 1/2 of Poland (and half of East Prussia), and gave Poland the Eastern 1/3 of Germany. They literally sidestepped Poland about 200 miles West.

(07-05-2018 02:11 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(07-05-2018 11:33 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I find Peter Zeihan's perspective interesting. He analyzes geopolitical trends based on geography and demographics.

Europe, from the Alps, Rhine, and Ardennes on the west to the Urals on the east, is basically one big flat plain, with no defensible borders. It's why Germany became so warlike (they had no defensible border to the east), why Russians are so paranoid (they have no defensible border to the west), why France and Russia were historic allies (with the common opponent Prussia/Germany), and why Poland has moved around so much over the centuries (the Poles had no borders at all and found one home after another in between where Russia and Germany were at the time). Visiting Gdansk last summer, I found it interesting that the city was about 80% German up to WWII. Afterwards, the Germans all moved out, and Poles moved in.

During the Iron Curtain days, Russia at least had an anchor on one flank with the Carpathians in satellite Romania. Now Puitn looks west at a 2500 mile border that he can't defend. Demographically, Russia is running out of 20-somethings, and they're not making many more of them. So Putin has about a 10-year window before the Red Army runs out of people to fill the slots. He either moves to shore up his borders now, or in the next 5 years or so, never. He has one weapon--most of Europe depends on Russian oil and gas, even more so as the North Sea starts to wind down. Will be very interesting, to say the least, how this all plays out. "May you live in interesting times."

After WW2, the Germans didn't MOVE out of the eastern half of their country. They were FORCED out by the Russians. Nearly 20 million German civilians were forced out of their centuries-old homelands in Eastern Europe AFTER WW2 was over. About 10% of them died in the process.

Russia annexed the Eastern 1/2 of Poland (and half of East Prussia), and gave Poland the Eastern 1/3 of Germany. They literally sidestepped Poland about 200 miles West.

It was ethnic cleansing on a massive scale. And we not only didn't object, but we were just fine with it. Just as we were fine with the ethnic cleansing of Serbs from Croatia under the Clinton administration and militarily supported the ethnic cleansing of Serbs from Kosovo.

Will somebody condense that?

He writes so poorly it is actually painful to read.

(07-05-2018 04:58 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Will somebody condense that?

He writes so poorly it is actually painful to read.

how about thinking it was inevitable based on poor decisions and adopting the Euro.....

they're fk'd.....it's simply been a matter of when....

let 'em duke nuke 'em each other.....it's their bed.....

it's the same as cali or the NE.....

(07-05-2018 04:58 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Will somebody condense that?

He writes so poorly it is actually painful to read.

Its more a personal story than an article to persuade.

He points out how the war in the Ukraine, which is a Russian invasion, is being ignored. And how other Eastern Europeans fear the same thing. He doesn't mention that it has happened in Georgia and Moldova with Russian support and in Azerbaijan, probably on its own, but the status quo is maintained by Russia.

And that it is a real war with lots of dislocations and lots of dead.