(06-28-2018 12:27 PM)ren.hoek Wrote: (06-28-2018 11:37 AM)JRsec Wrote: (06-28-2018 08:44 AM)ren.hoek Wrote: (06-28-2018 03:18 AM)JRsec Wrote: https://chapelboro.com/sports/chanskys-n...-big-break
Here's an interesting little editorial from within the heart of ACC country.
It seems not everyone over there has the same rosy outlook about the future! Time, economic disparity and pressure rears its head yet again.
The SECN/ACCN carriage deals will be interesting to watch. It has been reported that they are being packaged together, meaning that both networks would get carriage throughout the footprints of both conferences. If that is the case, why would the SEC need to add teams from NC and VA if the SECN is already getting carriage? Why add two or more mouths to feed?
Their carriage will be bundled. But their rates won't be. Remember however that moving forward content will drive pay bumps, not so much the size of the markets.
And, where did I say the SEC would want a school from Virginia and North Carolina? It might very well be Clemson and Florida State. Those two would add the most value now. I've always thought an argument could be made for Virginia Tech but the only reason I ever mention North Carolina (the state) is because so much of the talk always surrounds it. But truly there aren't any good fits for us there other than the fact that they were once old South.
Besides Ren, the article is about some in the ACC who might soon feel compelled to move for money. It's not even about who the SEC might or might not want. And if I'm not mistaken this seems to be a North Carolina fan/or local that's doing the talking. This isn't a piece by an SEC guy dreaming about how to grow the conference. This is an ACC guy stating that the revenue gap may be compelling.
True, the rates will be decoupled and will vary with geography - I would imagine that the ACCN gets higher rates in NC and northward and the SECN gets higher rates in GA and westward. The FL and SC rates might be in the same ballpark. I'm somewhat bullish on the revenue from the NE - even a modest carriage rate could have a high yield to both conferences just because of the population numbers. This is when we find out if carrying BC is truly worth the trouble.
We will know by 2022 whether the ACCN is the salvation of the ACC, or not. I think that will be the pivotal point for everything.
1. Does the Big 10 get another big pay boost, or do they re-ink their contract for a very modest difference?
2. Does Oklahoma or Texas move?
3. Does the PAC sell a % of their conference network to a carrier?
4. Does the SEC get the 7 to 10 million per school boost for their new T1 deal?
5. Does the ACC close the gap with a solid return from the ACCN or not?
The answer to these questions will determine far more than any previous period or sets of realignment moves.
It will determine if we have 3, 4, or 5 P conferences moving forward, or a league. It will determine whether the football spending war continues or grinds to a halt. It will determine whether expansion/consolidation continues or stops, or regresses.
I find the time frame fraught with more potential peril than reward. It will be right at the cusp of the Boomer die off which will be a negative indicator for higher payouts moving forward. It will be in a time when global economic issues are likely to be more impactful upon the United States. And it is ripe for a regime change yet again in the U.S. And perhaps even more important it will be on the backside of massive withdrawals from the stock market because of pension plans that will be being paid out.
I hardly see that time period as a bonanza for anyone, least of all an entertainment industry like sports which historically declines rapidly in the midst of recession.
Oddly for these reasons the pressure to jump for a little more cash may be all the more palpable at that time.
It's also the earliest of the time frames in which social security is predicted to fail.
If that proves to be true, or just any several facets of it do, we won't be growing the P5. We will be shrinking it, and not by just 3 or 4 schools, but perhaps by 9 or more.
So Ren the pressure will be both on those who need to close a gap in revenue, and and those who have overspent and may have to cut back. The result may be shrinking conferences, the merging of two shrinking conferences, or the total restructuring of all who continue to want to play football at the highest level.
Demographics are like a road map for the economy. There's a cliff looming from about 2026-2032. Then there is a long climb back up for the survivors.