It would be nice if the conferences go by regions.

Northwest (Oregon, Alaska, Idaho, Washington, British Columbia and northern Nevada)
Southwest (California, Hawaii, Nevada, Arizona, southern Utah region)
Southplains (New Mexico, southern Colorado, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, southern Missouri, southern Kansas)
Northern Plains (Northern Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska)
Gulf Coast
Midwest
Southeast
MidAtlantic
Northeast

Regarding the original question I think the better question is who from the ranks of the MAC, C-USA, and SBC could build their program into a AAC level program?

UTSA feels like a team who could do it based on their enrollment, stadium capacity, and lack of NFL in the market.

If UAB's administration invests in their team and Tuscaloosa stops meddling in their affairs they are a maybe.

If the stars align just right perhaps MTSU or ODU could make that leap with a string of successful seasons. If DFW didn't already have 2 private schools playing at a higher level I'd say UNT could have that same growth potential.

(06-07-2018 08:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Regarding the original question I think the better question is who from the ranks of the MAC, C-USA, and SBC could build their program into a AAC level program?

UTSA feels like a team who could do it based on their enrollment, stadium capacity, and lack of NFL in the market.

If UAB's administration invests in their team and Tuscaloosa stops meddling in their affairs they are a maybe.

If the stars align just right perhaps MTSU or ODU could make that leap with a string of successful seasons. If DFW didn't already have 2 private schools playing at a higher level I'd say UNT could have that same growth potential.

North Texas is growing their athletic programs regardless of those two small private school. Keep watching.

Although this is a complete troll thread, I'll give a serious reply anyway. (I'm in Peru ... yes the one in South America, and a bit bored.)

First part is the Big 12 expected losses. I think everyone and their pet hamster is convinced OU is leaving for either the B1G or SEC (doesn't matter which), as there is just too much logic and financial advantage to doing so. Sober minds are coming to the realization that oSu wont be going with OU because they are in the same state and same market. The 2nd options realistically are:

1) Texas
// whomever signs OU will go after Texas. Neither SEC nor B1G really care about LHN issue for the first 6 years, as this is a 100 year deal
2) KU or TCU
// KU makes more sense for the B1G (KC market and B1G alumni), and TCU for the SEC (DFW market, deeper Texas penetration)
3a) CU for B1G
// this is based on P12 troubles and B1G alumni in Denver. But it's way out there (I am dismissing ND)
// quite likely CU will sign a GOR in 2023 with P12, so B1G would have to grab them in 2022 or else wait another 7-12 years
3b) an ACC school, especially for the SEC (FSU, UNC make the most sense)
// very unlikely given ACC GOR past 2035
4) stand at 15 and wait for the right school (e.g., Texas or some ACC school)
// B1G stood at 11 with PSU for 21 years before adding Nebraska; hard to see SEC or B1G taking "any old school"

Second Part, is the likely size of the Big 12 almost certainly will stay at 10 schools. So they will likely be looking at adding only 1 school (OU only leaves) or 2 schools (somebody joins them, Texas/TCU/KU).

The list of schools to choose from was already identified in the "first cut": BYU, Colorado State, Tulane, Rice, Houston, Cincy, UCF, USF, Temple, UConn (AF asked out). Nobody takes Rice and Tulane as serious candidates, and were there on academics. Temple is a bit surprising, but I think we can scratch them. So that gets us to seven, five (5) in the AAC.

Ignoring all political and geographic issues, I'd rank them:

1. BYU
--- gap --
2. UConn
3. UCF
4. CSU
5. Cincy
6. Houston
7. USF

UConn is a flagship, but football is new, and they are a geographic outlier. Houston really has no shot of getting in unless the Big 12 loses a couple of Texas schools. USF simply lacks the support for athletics, despite being the better standing academic school of the Florida directionals. Cincy is a compromise choice, while BYU has issues that compromise their selection. Given that my ratings are

Best chance:
Colorado State
Central Florida

Strong consideration (could move up)
Brigham Young (LGBT issues)
Cincinnati
Connecticut

Secondary consideration
Houston
South Florida

Now if Texas joins OU then Houston and BYU both move up one category.

(06-07-2018 08:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Regarding the original question I think the better question is who from the ranks of the MAC, C-USA, and SBC could build their program into a AAC level program?

UTSA feels like a team who could do it based on their enrollment, stadium capacity, and lack of NFL in the market.

If UAB's administration invests in their team and Tuscaloosa stops meddling in their affairs they are a maybe.

If the stars align just right perhaps MTSU or ODU could make that leap with a string of successful seasons. If DFW didn't already have 2 private schools playing at a higher level I'd say UNT could have that same growth potential.

Toledo gets slept on a lot as a Cincy replacement. That program is so reliable and doesn’t carry the rural handicap like a lot of other candidates.

PAC 12 are stuck in G5 candidates to keep up if Oklahoma and Texas goes east. They were not really interested in Texas Tech of Oklahoma State.

PAC 12 could get Houston, Boise State. San Diego State and Colorado State or New mexico or UNR. That knocks 2 schools off the list going over to the Big 12. I could see PAC 12 to not take SDSU but add one of the others or Hawaii, but add 2 non-football schoolsto go to 18 with UCSD and UC-Santa Barbara. UC-Irvine would make 3 schools in the LA area.

I don't know why, but I like Old Dominion to the AAC, should the AAC lose a school to the B12. Secondary consideration to Southern Miss, UTSA, and UMass.

(06-08-2018 09:25 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I don't know why, but I like Old Dominion to the AAC, should the AAC lose a school to the B12. Secondary consideration to Southern Miss, UTSA, and UMass.

I think they fit the profile and would get serious consideration. However, I selfishly would like to see USM as they are my second adopted school behind Memphis and a close road trip.

(06-05-2018 05:29 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  What do y'all think?

Moving from C-USA to the MWC or AAC isn't getting out of jail.

More like moving from the fire to the frying pan.

If Memphis or Houston ever get into the Big 12 I gotta think Rice slides into that slot. Even if one of the Eastern Schools leave, I bet you see Memphis go to the Eastern division and Rice to the Western. Rice is the only traditional FBS private school not in the P5 or AAC

(06-06-2018 05:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-06-2018 09:29 AM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(06-05-2018 05:34 PM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt cracks open a zima and waits for the responses

clt drinks zima? i'm GLAD he's dead.

He's happier there, because the afterlife is the only place where you can still get Zima.

You are wrong my friend. Saw it in the grocery store just the other day.

http://www.millercoorsblog.com/news/zima-is-back/

(06-08-2018 10:57 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(06-06-2018 05:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-06-2018 09:29 AM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(06-05-2018 05:34 PM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt cracks open a zima and waits for the responses

clt drinks zima? i'm GLAD he's dead.

He's happier there, because the afterlife is the only place where you can still get Zima.

You are wrong my friend. Saw it in the grocery store just the other day.

http://www.millercoorsblog.com/news/zima-is-back/

I have a friend who's been buying it. He loves the stuff as a mixer with Vodka and Lime.

(06-08-2018 09:47 AM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  

(06-08-2018 09:25 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I don't know why, but I like Old Dominion to the AAC, should the AAC lose a school to the B12. Secondary consideration to Southern Miss, UTSA, and UMass.

I think they fit the profile and would get serious consideration. However, I selfishly would like to see USM as they are my second adopted school behind Memphis and a close road trip.

If ODU finds success and raises its profile that makes a bucket load of sense. ODU is in a very large metro with no P5 or major sports team in close proximity.

Southern Miss is limited to the role of professor or drill instructor. Their role is to mentor large metro programs and send them on their way to greater earnings or from boot camp to combat.

That was the surprise to me when CUSA expanded, I sort of thought that USM and ECU would be sick of the whole watch the metro teams move on thing and push for more smaller population residential colleges.

(06-08-2018 09:47 AM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  

(06-08-2018 09:25 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I don't know why, but I like Old Dominion to the AAC, should the AAC lose a school to the B12. Secondary consideration to Southern Miss, UTSA, and UMass.

I think they fit the profile and would get serious consideration. However, I selfishly would like to see USM as they are my second adopted school behind Memphis and a close road trip.

ODU spends at the level of the AAC. There was an article two years ago during Who Wants To be A big 12 Member fiasco. They were afraid of losing three or more schools to the Big 12. Their top 3 are ODU, Southern Mississippi and UMass. UConn. is lobbying for UMass. just in case they do not get an invite to a P5 conference.

(06-08-2018 10:58 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(06-08-2018 10:57 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(06-06-2018 05:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-06-2018 09:29 AM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(06-05-2018 05:34 PM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt cracks open a zima and waits for the responses

clt drinks zima? i'm GLAD he's dead.

He's happier there, because the afterlife is the only place where you can still get Zima.

You are wrong my friend. Saw it in the grocery store just the other day.

http://www.millercoorsblog.com/news/zima-is-back/

I have a friend who's been buying it. He loves the stuff as a mixer with Vodka and Lime.

One of my neighbors is the same way. Last year he bought as many cases as he could get his hands on and had a sign on his garage fridge that said "Keep your hands off my Zima"

I honestly never could get into it. Everybody would say "Try it with a Jolly Rancher" and I would reply "If you have to add candy to it to make it good why buy it in the first place?"

I remember the days when I’d be all over make-believe realignment threads like this. Good times....

The OP might have been better off waiting until after the AAC's new media deal gets announced. ESPN is looking to fill their new ESPN+ streaming service. I would be shocked if the AAC didn't end up with quite a few games relegated to the "+". Sure they will probably still earn a bit more then the rest of the G5, but not enough to make it the buyouts worth it.

(06-09-2018 02:39 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  The OP might have been better off waiting until after the AAC's new media deal gets announced. ESPN is looking to fill their new ESPN+ streaming service. I would be shocked if the AAC didn't end up with quite a few games relegated to the "+". Sure they will probably still earn a bit more then the rest of the G5, but not enough to make it the buyouts worth it.

The AAC is the only G5 conference that is reliably placing 10-20 games a season into the million+ viewer category. Some of those more well watched games were as high as the 2+ to 3+ million viewer level. I just dont see the AAC becoming a conference housed primarily on ESPN+ in the next deal. I also think there will be multiple interested parties when the bidding starts (far more than there were in the ill fated 2013 negotiations).

That said, I actually do believe ESPN+ will be part of the next AAC TV deal---but I also expect the AAC content moving to ESPN+ will amount to essentially the same AAC content that currently resides on ESPN3. I dont think there will be any appreciable change to the AAC's linear broadcasts vs streaming broadcast percentages in terms of the AAC's current broadcast profile. The AAC may end up with more stuff on ESPN+ than is currently on ESPN3---but it will be because the added content is currently either not broadcast now or is only available on the AAC Digital Network. From where Im sitting, things are lining up very well for the next AAC deal. In the most recent G5 deals----we have seen both the Sunbelt and CUSA increase their exposure/visibility while each more than doubled their payouts. Neither has accomplished as much as the AAC since 2013. Seems to me that successful new deals by the Sunbelt and CUSA would bode well for the AAC when their deal comes up for renewal.

By the way---I dont think the AAC is adding anyone anytime soon---regardless of whether they get 200K a team or 15 million a team in the next deal. I think things are going to remain pretty stable until 2023 or so when the P5 deals are about to renew.

(06-09-2018 11:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-09-2018 02:39 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  The OP might have been better off waiting until after the AAC's new media deal gets announced. ESPN is looking to fill their new ESPN+ streaming service. I would be shocked if the AAC didn't end up with quite a few games relegated to the "+". Sure they will probably still earn a bit more then the rest of the G5, but not enough to make it the buyouts worth it.

The AAC is the only G5 conference that is reliably placing 10-20 games a season into the million+ viewer category. Some of those more well watched games were as high as the 2+ to 3+ million viewer level. I just dont see the AAC becoming a conference housed primarily on ESPN+ in the next deal. I also think there will be multiple interested parties when the bidding starts (far more than there were in the ill fated 2013 negotiations).

That said, I actually do believe ESPN+ will be part of the next AAC TV deal---but I also expect the AAC content moving to ESPN+ will amount to essentially the same AAC content that currently resides on ESPN3. I dont think there will be any appreciable change to the AAC's linear broadcasts vs streaming broadcast percentages in terms of the AAC's current broadcast profile. The AAC may end up with more stuff on ESPN+ than is currently on ESPN3---but it will be because the added content is currently either not broadcast now or is only available on the AAC Digital Network. From where Im sitting, things are lining up very well for the next AAC deal. In the most recent G5 deals----we have seen both the Sunbelt and CUSA increase their exposure/visibility while each more than doubled their payouts. Neither has accomplished as much as the AAC since 2013. Seems to me that successful new deals by the Sunbelt and CUSA would bode well for the AAC when their deal comes up for renewal.

By the way---I dont think the AAC is adding anyone anytime soon---regardless of whether they get 200K a team or 15 million a team in the next deal. I think things are going to remain pretty stable until 2023 or so when the P5 deals are about to renew.

Which is long-term a bigger part of the ESPN future?
ESPN News or ESPN+?

Keep that in mind when you make your guesses about the future of AAC TV

(06-10-2018 10:05 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(06-09-2018 11:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-09-2018 02:39 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  The OP might have been better off waiting until after the AAC's new media deal gets announced. ESPN is looking to fill their new ESPN+ streaming service. I would be shocked if the AAC didn't end up with quite a few games relegated to the "+". Sure they will probably still earn a bit more then the rest of the G5, but not enough to make it the buyouts worth it.

The AAC is the only G5 conference that is reliably placing 10-20 games a season into the million+ viewer category. Some of those more well watched games were as high as the 2+ to 3+ million viewer level. I just dont see the AAC becoming a conference housed primarily on ESPN+ in the next deal. I also think there will be multiple interested parties when the bidding starts (far more than there were in the ill fated 2013 negotiations).

That said, I actually do believe ESPN+ will be part of the next AAC TV deal---but I also expect the AAC content moving to ESPN+ will amount to essentially the same AAC content that currently resides on ESPN3. I dont think there will be any appreciable change to the AAC's linear broadcasts vs streaming broadcast percentages in terms of the AAC's current broadcast profile. The AAC may end up with more stuff on ESPN+ than is currently on ESPN3---but it will be because the added content is currently either not broadcast now or is only available on the AAC Digital Network. From where Im sitting, things are lining up very well for the next AAC deal. In the most recent G5 deals----we have seen both the Sunbelt and CUSA increase their exposure/visibility while each more than doubled their payouts. Neither has accomplished as much as the AAC since 2013. Seems to me that successful new deals by the Sunbelt and CUSA would bode well for the AAC when their deal comes up for renewal.

By the way---I dont think the AAC is adding anyone anytime soon---regardless of whether they get 200K a team or 15 million a team in the next deal. I think things are going to remain pretty stable until 2023 or so when the P5 deals are about to renew.

Which is long-term a bigger part of the ESPN future?
ESPN News or ESPN+?

Keep that in mind when you make your guesses about the future of AAC TV

ESPN News programming is going to be the FOX regionals programing if that deal closes IMO. Or at least the stuff between the local tv broadcast partners.