RE: Which C-USA teams receive Get Out of Jail cards when AAC, MWC have to backfill?
Although this is a complete troll thread, I'll give a serious reply anyway. (I'm in Peru ... yes the one in South America, and a bit bored.)
First part is the Big 12 expected losses. I think everyone and their pet hamster is convinced OU is leaving for either the B1G or SEC (doesn't matter which), as there is just too much logic and financial advantage to doing so. Sober minds are coming to the realization that oSu wont be going with OU because they are in the same state and same market. The 2nd options realistically are:
1) Texas
// whomever signs OU will go after Texas. Neither SEC nor B1G really care about LHN issue for the first 6 years, as this is a 100 year deal
2) KU or TCU
// KU makes more sense for the B1G (KC market and B1G alumni), and TCU for the SEC (DFW market, deeper Texas penetration)
3a) CU for B1G
// this is based on P12 troubles and B1G alumni in Denver. But it's way out there (I am dismissing ND)
// quite likely CU will sign a GOR in 2023 with P12, so B1G would have to grab them in 2022 or else wait another 7-12 years
3b) an ACC school, especially for the SEC (FSU, UNC make the most sense)
// very unlikely given ACC GOR past 2035
4) stand at 15 and wait for the right school (e.g., Texas or some ACC school)
// B1G stood at 11 with PSU for 21 years before adding Nebraska; hard to see SEC or B1G taking "any old school"
Second Part, is the likely size of the Big 12 almost certainly will stay at 10 schools. So they will likely be looking at adding only 1 school (OU only leaves) or 2 schools (somebody joins them, Texas/TCU/KU).
The list of schools to choose from was already identified in the "first cut": BYU, Colorado State, Tulane, Rice, Houston, Cincy, UCF, USF, Temple, UConn (AF asked out). Nobody takes Rice and Tulane as serious candidates, and were there on academics. Temple is a bit surprising, but I think we can scratch them. So that gets us to seven, five (5) in the AAC.
Ignoring all political and geographic issues, I'd rank them:
1. BYU
--- gap --
2. UConn
3. UCF
4. CSU
5. Cincy
6. Houston
7. USF
UConn is a flagship, but football is new, and they are a geographic outlier. Houston really has no shot of getting in unless the Big 12 loses a couple of Texas schools. USF simply lacks the support for athletics, despite being the better standing academic school of the Florida directionals. Cincy is a compromise choice, while BYU has issues that compromise their selection. Given that my ratings are
Best chance:
Colorado State
Central Florida
Strong consideration (could move up)
Brigham Young (LGBT issues)
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Secondary consideration
Houston
South Florida
Now if Texas joins OU then Houston and BYU both move up one category.
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