umbluegray
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Posts: 42,190
Joined: Nov 2003
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I Root For: The Tigers!
Location: Memphis
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RE: Hillary Clinton Calls The Electoral College “Troubling”
(05-31-2018 07:21 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: (05-31-2018 12:22 AM)shere khan Wrote: (05-30-2018 10:30 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: (05-30-2018 06:27 PM)shere khan Wrote: (05-30-2018 12:30 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: I want a direct popular vote for President, but I'm not terribly concerned about it, because the EC is about to start hurting the GOP.
By 2030, Mexican American voters will control, by demographics, the EVs of Texas, NM, CO, AZ, NV, and CA. Those states are projected to have 135 EVs, and 69 of those EVs will be coming at the expense of the GOP. That's more than the GOP 'dream' of flipping MI, WI, MN, IA, and PA (only projected to have 63 EVs).
NY, IL, RI, VT, NJ, VA, MD, DEL, DC, MA, WA, ORE, and HI are going to be unreachable for a non-RINO GOPer for years too. That's projected to be another 126 EVs. So basically, the Dems will start off with an absolute lock on 261 EVs.
So, all the Dems will need is 9 EVs from FL, NH, ME, IA, MN, WI, MI, OH, GA, PA, or NC and they lock the GOP out. And watch out, while nativist Trump won most of those EVs, remember that the demographics of NC, GA, and FL are changing as well. Even if the angry rust belt flips to the GOP (including NH, ME, IA, and MN), which is the best case scenario, theres going to be a problem for the GOP with the EC going forward. By the way, in the medium term, the GOP is correct to try to go after MI, PA, OH, WI, MN, and IA. But they better watch out in NC and FL too.
And for the record, the 2010 Anglo population of Texas was 48% (or approx 61% of voters). By 2030, the Anglo proportion drops to around 34% (and the voting percentage drops into the low to mid 40s). With Trump's policies and the current anti-Latino makeup of the GOP, that's going to be a very hard hill to climb. A GOP that isn't going to get their doors blown off in Texas is going to have to look a LOT differently than it does now. And I don't think they're up to changing. Texas has been projected to flip for years, I know. But it really is going to flip in the next 6-12 years. Basic math and policies make that almost a guarantee.
Trump nativism + the Electoral College might just = a twenty year long Democratic stranglehold on the Presidency.
Bascially, in a decade or so, the EC is going to give Latino Americans, and Mexican Americans specifically, a stranglehold on the Presidency.
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With a direct vote for President, the GOP is still going to be pretty screwed, but at least they can try to maximize the Anglo vote and have it count. In a EV scenario, its going to be much worse for them.
Racist post is racist
Democrats don't own brown people, yet.
LOL. Trump is doing to the National GOP what Pete Wilson's policies and rhetoric as California Governor did to the California GOP.
But the camps man, the camps. Lol
Well taking away toddlers from parents for no good reason happened at railroad sidings at camps.....and now at ICE intake centers in this country for asylum seekers (btw, entering the USA to apply for asylum isn't against the law). Nice family values btw.
There was this guy this guy that robbed a bank. He was a husband and father. And the authorities took him away. They separated a family.
For no good reason.
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