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(03-15-2018 07:16 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(03-14-2018 09:57 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  We are playing a team that has exactly ZERO, that's 0, none, nada wins vs RPI Q1 teams this year.

So whatever stats they have, none of them helped them win against a single RPI Q1 team. NONE.

That is what I keep hoping; however, the did put 106 on ULL so they can light it up if they get hot.

The big key for UC is to hold them to 35 percent and under from the three point line with no second chance opportunities. Make free throws, rebound the ball, and don't turn it over. I believe Georgia State is really good at 2-pt field goal percentage and the strip and steal. If UC plays like they did in Orlando this is going to be a closer game than most want to admit. If UC plays like they did the majority of the conference season against the second tier opponents then UC wins by solid margin.

close games happen in this tourney regularly


If you recall our 1996 elite 8 team with Fortson only beat
UNC-Somebody by four points or so (just going off memory) and that UC team was a 2 or 3 seed. That same team went on to soundly beat Temple and SMOKE the ACC tourney champ Georgia Tech.

I don't care if we win by 1 or 101. Bottom line is, we are the 2Seed...no excuse to lose.

In march nobody cares how you win...just win. Style points don't matter vs just winning and advancing.

(03-15-2018 07:27 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  close games happen in this tourney regularly


If you recall our 1996 elite 8 team with Fortson only beat
UNC-Somebody by four points or so (just going off memory) and that UC team was a 2 or 3 seed. That same team went on to soundly beat Temple and SMOKE the ACC tourney champ Georgia Tech.

I don't care if we win by 1 or 101. Bottom line is, we are the 2Seed...no excuse to lose.

In march nobody cares how you win...just win. Style points don't matter vs just winning and advancing.

Bearcat 2 seed history vs 15

2000
15 UNC Wilmington 47
2 Cincinnati 64

1998
15 Northern Arizona 62
2 Cincinnati 65

1996
15 UNC Greensboro 61
2 Cincinnati 66

1993
15 Coppin State 66
2 Cincinnati 93




for my well being on Friday afternoon about 3:45pm, Im hoping for a 2000 or 1993 type year

Seems to me that a team like we dispatched teams like Georgia St with relative ease during the season, and a team like Buffalo was quite a bit stronger via Kenpom/rpi or whatever y'all talk about all the time.

There is no excuse not to win this game.

I saw somewhere that kenpom has this as a 12 point game. Seems about right.

(03-15-2018 08:06 AM)DownOnRohs Wrote:  I saw somewhere that kenpom has this as a 12 point game. Seems about right.

vegas has us as 14 point favorites. i think we win by 15+.

(03-14-2018 09:00 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Doesn't seem like this is game is going to be cakewalk unless UC shoots well early. Honestly this game has more nervous than a normal 15 seed. Anytime the other team might have the best player on the court that creates issues. I still see this as a 12 to 17 point UC win.

They absolutely do not have the best player on the court. What we he have averaged against our schedule?

(03-14-2018 03:54 PM)Tymanh99 Wrote:  

(03-14-2018 09:43 AM)Ahhhorsepoo Wrote:  Anyone know which section UC fans will be in? I will be down there and we got seats in 108 from a buddy who lives down there..

I'll be in section 107 for Friday's game.

we will have a good view of Bearcat Nation

(03-15-2018 08:18 AM)Tymanh99 Wrote:  

(03-15-2018 08:06 AM)DownOnRohs Wrote:  I saw somewhere that kenpom has this as a 12 point game. Seems about right.

vegas has us as 14 point favorites. i think we win by 15+.

The game thread will read like the world is ending before halftime but my guess is we cover that spread with relative ease.

(03-14-2018 09:00 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Doesn't seem like this is game is going to be cakewalk unless UC shoots well early. Honestly this game has more nervous than a normal 15 seed. Anytime the other team might have the best player on the court that creates issues. I still see this as a 12 to 17 point UC win.

Simonds will not be the best player on the court regardless of the outcome. That i know. He may take more shots than anyone on the court.

(03-15-2018 08:36 AM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(03-14-2018 09:00 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Doesn't seem like this is game is going to be cakewalk unless UC shoots well early. Honestly this game has more nervous than a normal 15 seed. Anytime the other team might have the best player on the court that creates issues. I still see this as a 12 to 17 point UC win.

They absolutely do not have the best player on the court. What we he have averaged against our schedule?

Looks like he averaged 21.1 46.6% shooting.

Cane averaged 23.3 and 44% at Sacred Heart.

Judging by that, I'll take a guess and say he'd average about 10 to 12 ppg in the AAC.

Probably a really bad example, but he wouldn't be the same player.

(03-15-2018 09:23 AM)djtothemoney Wrote:  

(03-15-2018 08:36 AM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(03-14-2018 09:00 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Doesn't seem like this is game is going to be cakewalk unless UC shoots well early. Honestly this game has more nervous than a normal 15 seed. Anytime the other team might have the best player on the court that creates issues. I still see this as a 12 to 17 point UC win.

They absolutely do not have the best player on the court. What we he have averaged against our schedule?

Looks like he averaged 21.1 46.6% shooting.

Cane averaged 23.3 and 44% at Sacred Heart.

Judging by that, I'll take a guess and say he'd average about 10 to 12 ppg in the AAC.

Probably a really bad example, but he wouldn't be the same player.

The Belt is also the 20th ranked conference by RPI. The AAC is 7th.

I just read an article on msn.com on the biggest opening round upsets. There have been quite a few 15 seeds beating 2 seeds. UC needs to come out prepared and they will be fine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaabk/...li=BBxU6kX

All time Winning Percentage Per Seed (First Round Only):

1v16: 100%
2v15: 93.9%
3v14: 84.1%
4v13: 80.9%
5v12: 67.1%
6v11: 63.8%
7v10: 60.9%
8v9: 53.2%

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

Looking into the next round, the 2-seed has a higher winning percentage against the 7 seed (71%) than the 10 seed (60.7%), although more games have been played against the 7 by a decent margin.

Dan interviews Cane:

https://soundcloud.com/dan-hoard/cane-br...um=twitter

(03-15-2018 10:07 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  All time Winning Percentage Per Seed (First Round Only):

1v16: 100%
2v15: 93.9%
3v14: 84.1%
4v13: 80.9%
5v12: 67.1%
6v11: 63.8%
7v10: 60.9%
8v9: 53.2%

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

Looking into the next round, the 2-seed has a higher winning percentage against the 7 seed (71%) than the 10 seed (60.7%), although more games have been played against the 7 by a decent margin.

The sharpest dropoff is to the 5v12 seed. The win probability from a 4 to a 5 seed drops 13.8%. Something about those matchups - maybe because they dump a lot of mid-major or lower conference winners off on the 12 line?

(03-15-2018 09:41 AM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(03-15-2018 09:23 AM)djtothemoney Wrote:  

(03-15-2018 08:36 AM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(03-14-2018 09:00 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Doesn't seem like this is game is going to be cakewalk unless UC shoots well early. Honestly this game has more nervous than a normal 15 seed. Anytime the other team might have the best player on the court that creates issues. I still see this as a 12 to 17 point UC win.

They absolutely do not have the best player on the court. What we he have averaged against our schedule?

Looks like he averaged 21.1 46.6% shooting.

Cane averaged 23.3 and 44% at Sacred Heart.

Judging by that, I'll take a guess and say he'd average about 10 to 12 ppg in the AAC.

Probably a really bad example, but he wouldn't be the same player.

The Belt is also the 20th ranked conference by RPI. The AAC is 7th.

I don't disagree with your assertion that UC fans should be confident about this 2018 Bearcat team advancing. That's what we all want and the metrics suggest it will happen.

I would suggest that the old Big East was considerably more formidable as a conference than the Ivy League the year UC lost the opener to Harvard. So to a great extent it does come down to matchups.

For UC fans to have the jitters doesn't mean they don't back the 'Cats. But given some early exits, combined with a couple of conference tournament games last weekend where UC didn't make a three in the first half, folks are just cautious (as our coach is) in looking too far ahead.

(03-15-2018 10:22 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(03-15-2018 09:41 AM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(03-15-2018 09:23 AM)djtothemoney Wrote:  

(03-15-2018 08:36 AM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(03-14-2018 09:00 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Doesn't seem like this is game is going to be cakewalk unless UC shoots well early. Honestly this game has more nervous than a normal 15 seed. Anytime the other team might have the best player on the court that creates issues. I still see this as a 12 to 17 point UC win.

They absolutely do not have the best player on the court. What we he have averaged against our schedule?

Looks like he averaged 21.1 46.6% shooting.

Cane averaged 23.3 and 44% at Sacred Heart.

Judging by that, I'll take a guess and say he'd average about 10 to 12 ppg in the AAC.

Probably a really bad example, but he wouldn't be the same player.

The Belt is also the 20th ranked conference by RPI. The AAC is 7th.

I don't disagree with your assertion that UC fans should be confident about this 2018 Bearcat team advancing. That's what we all want and the metrics suggest it will happen.

I would suggest that the old Big East was considerably more formidable as a conference than the Ivy League the year UC lost the opener to Harvard. So to a great extent it does come down to matchups.

For UC fans to have the jitters doesn't mean they don't back the 'Cats. But given some early exits, combined with a couple of conference tournament games last weekend where UC didn't make a three in the first half, folks are just cautious (as our coach is) in looking too far ahead.

Harvard was 32 kenpom, UC was 26 entering the tournament (and finished 27). UC was not much of a favorite in that game according to the metrics. That's a big difference between a top 5 caliber UC team and a Georgia State team around 100.

UC v GSU is not EVEN CLOSE to UC v Harvard lol

what's wrong with you people

I'm nervous about every game, especially the one and done for the season games. I am confident that the Bearcats will win but it doesn't mean I am not nervous. If UC plays their game, they should be ok. Weird things happen in this tournament though...which explains my nervousness.

There is too much time between games