JRsec
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-07-2018 02:47 PM)BePcr07 Wrote: (02-07-2018 01:49 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: (02-07-2018 02:14 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote: (02-06-2018 05:59 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: (02-05-2018 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote: But I'm going to stand by my old contingency here anyway. It is far more likely that ESPN tries to consume the Big 12 before it comes on the market in 2023 for 2025 than it is that it will split any of its more fully owned product. The only question is how?
Well, if it occurs what is paid out will defy conventional wisdom. Why? Texas will want it's 50 million a year that it gets now. The ACC for the trouble wants to have the economic gap which is currently its only threat removed, and the Big 12 schools other than Texas will need enough of a bump to cover minor sports competition.
So something like this might be worked out:
Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, West Virginia to the SEC.
Baylor, Notre Dame, Houston, Kansas State, Texas, T.C.U. to the ACC.
Both conferences move up in revenue. The SEC settles in a 55-60 million pay out per school the ACC settles into a 50-55 million payout per school. The Big 12 decides to dissolve early the LHN is folded back into ESPN's hands to use as it sees fit, or to dismantle. But personally I think it would be the home studio of the Spanish versions of the SECN and ACCN.
The interesting part is the money.
ESPN would have to agree to pay both leagues more money than what the additions would demand. They might well do it for the reasons you're stating.
Would the leagues go all in on that assuming the money was guaranteed? I think they probably would.
I would suggest maybe a couple of alterations though. If we're promoting a single school from the G5 then I think Cincinnati would be the more economical decision. Something like this...
SEC adds Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, Cincinnati, and West Virginia
Midwest: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, Missouri
West: Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
South: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Cincinnati
ACC adds Notre Dame, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State
West: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State
North: Notre Dame, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College
Atlantic: Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, NC State, Duke
South: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest
Reason being is this:
ESPN will own the TX market handily without Houston. While UH is probably the better long term prospect for football success, that can also be used to the network's advantage in the tweener league. More Sun Belt products in the AAC will lead to better quality and more watchable games.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati offers a large new market for the conglomerate. That's especially true if they abandon the Big Ten's contract. OH is a great college football market and if UC has better resources they could likely make a dent in OSU's overall support although obviously the two would never be truly equal. Nonetheless, it's a large market with a lot of recruits and I think it would pay dividends to have it in the fold especially if the SECN and ACCN are bundled together...plenty of Notre Dame fans in OH.
For the SEC specifically, Texas Tech is a decent program, but they don't really give us anything we wouldn't already have. The additions of OU and OSU would supplement our support in TX and I think Tech would probably be more valuable if they were playing their more familiar regional schools.
The thing here is the SEC has not felt the need to associate itself with city schools and Vandy is a private school, so that doesn't really count. Should Oklahoma and Oklahoma State be in a division that's separate from Arkansas' then it make some sense for Tech to be in a division with Arkansas. Tech could replace A&M in the Jerry Dome game, giving A&M the opportunity to back out of that game since they already have a huge stadium to fill up themselves. A win for A&M and continued exposure for Tech and Arkansas in Dallas.
Maybe the ACC could pick up South Florida instead of Houston. It's in the footprint but it's a new television market. USF would give the ACC a greater presence in the state of Florida and a major growing market in Tampa
West: Texas, Louisville, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State
North: Notre Dame, USF, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College
Atlantic: Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, NC State, Duke
South: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest
Midwest: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, Missouri
West: Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Texas Tech
South: Alabama, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Auburn
True, but there aren't a lot of city schools nearby. Most of those types of schools in the South are G5 with rare exception. And actually, there was a time the SEC was having conversations with Houston although that was around the time the SWC was breaking apart. Even today, UH would make some sense for the SEC, but it's not necessary now that we have A&M.
Even now, I don't think the league would have a problem with a school like Miami or TCU despite the fact they aren't large state flagships.
UC wouldn't be an ideal option for the SEC, but if ESPN goes Machiavellian then it does make sense. There is no other Power school in the state of OH and one would think that leaves room for an opportunity. All the major bases would be covered in TX even if Houston didn't make the cut.
Regarding city schools, in my opinion, the XII should've pre-empted the SEC and taken West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, TCU, Houston, Memphis, and Syracuse simultaneously to get to 16.
The SEC should only take private, city schools with good academics - if any city schools. Louisville doesn't add too much other than a brand name and their performance on the field/court is slipping. In the current climate only Texas, Oklahoma, maybe Kansas, maybe Oklahoma St, Florida St, and Clemson truly make sense. TCU and Miami as private, city schools could be options.
The SEC will get the pick of the litter. The B1G will tout "academics" and get AAU schools that likely won't help them win many championships.
Well Pittsburgh & Syracuse knew they were about to be off the market and Cincinnati, Louisville, Houston, and Memphis weren't going to get ESPN support because they owned their rights already and for much much less.
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